ABD\u2013\u0130ran gerilimi yeniden t\u0131rmanarak enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en tanker hareketlerine ili\u015fkin riskleri art\u0131rd\u0131. Tahran ayr\u0131ca, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fc baypas eden g\u00fczerg\u00e2hlar\u0131 kullanan nakliye \u015firketlerini de uyard\u0131. Haziran ay\u0131nda imzalanan ABD\u2013\u0130ran ate\u015fkes muht\u0131ras\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6kmesinin ard\u0131ndan bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7en tanker trafi\u011fi sert bi\u00e7imde geriledi. Ba\u015fkan Trump, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019den ge\u00e7en gemilere sald\u0131rmas\u0131 halinde ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019daki k\u00f6pr\u00fcleri ve elektrik altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 hedef alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi; \u0130ran da kendi enerji varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n vurulmas\u0131 durumunda K\u00f6rfez genelindeki enerji tesislerini vuraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirterek kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verdi.<\/p>\n
Arz kayg\u0131lar\u0131 K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019e de yay\u0131ld\u0131. Husilerin iki Suudi petrol tankerine sald\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildiriliyor; bu durum Bab\u00fclmendep Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en trafi\u011fi tehdit ediyor. S\u00f6z konusu hat, b\u00f6lgesel petrol ihracat\u0131 i\u00e7in daha \u00f6nemli bir alternatif koridor h\u00e2line geldi\u011finden, her t\u00fcrl\u00fc kesintiye kar\u015f\u0131 piyasa hassasiyetini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Brent bu ay 90 ABD dolar\/varil seviyesinin \u00fczerine toparland\u0131; bu y\u00fckseli\u015f, daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 k\u00fcresel bir enerji \u015foku riskinin daha y\u00fcksek alg\u0131land\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Brent petrol\u00fcn bu temmuzda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131yla birlikte, enerji piyasalar\u0131nda belirgin bir jeopolitik risk priminin fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelik tehditler, k\u0131sa vadeli arz\u0131 son derece \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez k\u0131l\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, bu hayati ge\u00e7i\u015f darbo\u011fazlar\u0131n\u0131n e\u015fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda artan fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131, g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyon varil petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na arac\u0131l\u0131k ediyor; bu, k\u00fcresel s\u0131v\u0131 petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte birine denk geliyor. Ani arz kesintilerine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, h\u0131zl\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 yakalamada \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money) Brent al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Petrol opsiyonlar\u0131nda z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k h\u0131zla y\u00fckseliyor ve ham petrol oynakl\u0131k endeksinin ge\u00e7mi\u015f kriz d\u00f6nemlerindeki %30\u2019un \u00fczerini g\u00f6ren s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 taklit etmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Vadeli i\u015flem e\u011frisindeki derinle\u015fen backwardation\u2019dan yararlanmak i\u00e7in takvim spread\u2019lerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 da \u00f6neriyoruz; bu yap\u0131, yak\u0131n vadeli fiyatlar\u0131n ileri vadeli aylara k\u0131yasla y\u00fcksek bir primle i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc anlam\u0131na geliyor. Yak\u0131n vade kontratlar\u0131n\u0131 al\u0131p daha ileri vadeleri satarak, piyasadaki anl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131ktan faydalanabiliriz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, jeopolitik primin aniden ortadan kalkmas\u0131 durumunda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskimizi s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, borsalar\u0131n teminat (margin) gerekliliklerini art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rmeliyiz; bu gereklilikler tarihsel olarak b\u00fcy\u00fck enerji \u015foklar\u0131nda %15 ila %25 y\u00fckseliyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar kald\u0131ra\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeli ve g\u00fcn i\u00e7i ani teminat tamamlama \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131na dayanabilmek i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek likidite tamponlar\u0131 bulundurmal\u0131d\u0131r. Pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerini m\u00fctevaz\u0131 tutmak, y\u00fcksek k\u00e2rl\u0131 ancak oynak bu piyasa hareketlerinden yararlanacak \u015fekilde konumlanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilmemizi sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n