Hindistan rupisi, ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fcne hafif g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ba\u015flad\u0131; USD\/INR, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen iki ay\u0131n zirvesi olan 96,75\u2019ten sonra 96,47\u201396,53 band\u0131na do\u011fru gev\u015fedi. Piyasalar, Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBI) spot ve teslimats\u0131z vadeli (NDF) piyasas\u0131nda olas\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Reuters\u2019a g\u00f6re RBI, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin para birimini rekor dip seviyelere do\u011fru itmeye devam etmesi ve rupi b\u00f6lgesel benzerlerine k\u0131yasla zay\u0131f seyrederken yabanc\u0131 hisse \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi \u00fczerine kay\u0131plar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc muhtemelen piyasaya m\u00fcdahale etti. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc tepki enerji kaynakl\u0131 yeni bask\u0131lara kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lgan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
Ton belirleyici unsur petrold\u00fc: MCX\u2019te 19 A\u011fustos vadeli kontrat %1,75 y\u00fckselerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 8.570 rupi seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve 6 haftay\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki arz riskleri, K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019de Husi g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin Encelia adl\u0131 tanker dahil iki Suudi petrol tankerine f\u00fcze ve \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 sonras\u0131 artt\u0131. BNY Mellon, petrol\u00fcn 95 dolar seviyesini kur piyasalar\u0131 i\u00e7in bir \u201c\u015fok\u201d olarak nitelendirirken; BRL, CLP ve ZAR gibi y\u00fcksek ta\u015f\u0131ma getirili (high-carry) emtia para birimlerinin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, NOK\u2019un ise destek bulsa da yukar\u0131da s\u0131n\u0131rlanabilece\u011fini belirtti. Yabanc\u0131 kurumsal yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar (FII) \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 819,20 crore rupi net sat\u0131c\u0131 olurken, ay ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana net sat\u0131\u015flar 4.836,95 crore rupiye ula\u015ft\u0131. Teknik tarafta USD\/INR, 20 periyotluk EMA olan 95,8764\/95,88\u2019in \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken RSI 64,10 seviyesinde; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde 97,10 seviyesi odakta.<\/p>\n\n
USD\/INR \u015fu anda 96,53 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentuma i\u015faret ederken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n 97,10 civar\u0131ndaki rekor seviyenin test edilmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu strateji, ba\u015fa ba\u015fa yak\u0131n (near-the-money) USD\/INR al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n al\u0131narak veya prim maliyetini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019leri (bull call spread) kullan\u0131larak uygulanabilir. Spot piyasada olas\u0131 ani merkez bankas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalelerine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in 95,88\u2019deki yak\u0131n deste\u011fin hemen alt\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131 bir zarar-kes (stop-loss) planlanmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
K\u00fcresel ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131, K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019de t\u0131rmanan deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 gerilimleri nedeniyle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar civar\u0131nda seyrederken, petrol ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n %80\u2019den fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ithal eden Hindistan\u2019\u0131n y\u00fcksek ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 rupiyi bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda tutmaya devam edecek. Ayr\u0131ca, yabanc\u0131 fon \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131 da hesaba kat\u0131lmal\u0131; yabanc\u0131 kurumsal yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu temmuzda Hindistan hisselerinden \u015fimdiden 4.836 crore rupinin \u00fczerinde \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, yurt i\u00e7i hisse portf\u00f6ylerini g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na almak ad\u0131na Nifty 50 endeksinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Hindistan piyasas\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndan do\u011frudan fayda sa\u011flayan y\u00fcksek ta\u015f\u0131ma getirili emtia t\u00fcrevlerinde olduk\u00e7a cazip f\u0131rsatlar g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, ABD dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 Brezilya Reali (BRL) ve G\u00fcney Afrika Rand\u0131\u2019nda (ZAR) uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli. Bu y\u00fcksek getirili para birimleri, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc cari denge tamponlar\u0131yla destekleniyor ve mevcut k\u00fcresel petrol \u015fokuna kar\u015f\u0131 yap\u0131sal olarak daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131 konumda bulunuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n