USD\/IDR Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yatay seyretti ve \u00f6nceki g\u00fcnk\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan 17.960 civar\u0131nda dalgaland\u0131. Endonezya Rupisi, Bank Indonesia\u2019n\u0131n politika faizini %5,75\u2019te sabit tutma y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki s\u00fcrpriz karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7lenince parite de dengelendi. Bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini art\u0131rmak yerine, Ba\u015fkan Perry Warjiyo yabanc\u0131 giri\u015flerini \u00e7ekmeyi ve kur istikrar\u0131n\u0131 desteklemeyi hedefleyen noktasal \u00f6nlemleri a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131, zay\u0131flayan ABD ekonomisine dair i\u015faretlerin enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015felerinin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7mesiyle bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; bu durum USD\/IDR i\u00e7in net bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kataliz\u00f6r b\u0131rakmad\u0131. Piyasalar genel olarak Fed\u2019in yakla\u015fan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmemesini bekliyor; ancak de\u011fi\u015fen politika beklentileri ve g\u00f6reve gelecek Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019tan gelen net olmayan y\u00f6nlendirmeler, uzun vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc buland\u0131rd\u0131. Dolar\u0131n olas\u0131 ek geri \u00e7ekilmesi, Orta Do\u011fu gerilimleri g\u00fcndemde kal\u0131rken g\u00fcvenli liman talebiyle s\u0131n\u0131rlan\u0131yor: Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump, Tahran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hedef almas\u0131 halinde \u0130ran altyap\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131larla tehdit etti; \u0130ran ise ABD ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 enerji varl\u0131klar\u0131na h\u0131zl\u0131 misilleme s\u00f6z\u00fc verdi. \u0130ran destekli Husiler de K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019de iki Suudi petrol tankerine f\u00fcze ve \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 d\u00fczenledi. Bu, b\u00f6lgede tankerlere y\u00f6nelik ilk do\u011frudan sald\u0131r\u0131lar olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, Suudi ham petrol\u00fc i\u00e7in alternatif bir ihracat rotas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik riskleri art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, parite 17.960 seviyesine yak\u0131n seyrederken USD\/IDR\u2019de artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bank Indonesia\u2019n\u0131n politika faizini %5,75\u2019te tutma y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki s\u00fcrpriz karar\u0131, faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yerine yabanc\u0131 sermaye \u00e7ekmeyi ama\u00e7layan hedefli \u00f6nlemlere b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde dayan\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, geli\u015fen piyasalarda benzer idari \u00f6nlemler, yabanc\u0131 giri\u015flerin h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemesi durumunda sert kur hareketlerini tetikleyebiliyor.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 zamanda, ABD ekonomisi ve para politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizli\u011fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Zay\u0131flayan ABD ekonomisi dolar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratsa da, yeni Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n net olmayan y\u00f6nlendirmeleri y\u00f6n tahminine dayal\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131 son derece riskli k\u0131l\u0131yor. Piyasa faiz patikas\u0131 konusunda netlik ararken b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketlerinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli straddle al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik riskler, ABD Dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir g\u00fcvenli liman talebi olu\u015fturuyor ve bunu g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edemeyiz. Suudi petrol tankerlerine y\u00f6nelik son sald\u0131r\u0131lar, k\u00fcresel deniz ticaretinin tipik olarak yakla\u015f\u0131k %12\u2019sini ta\u015f\u0131yan hayati bir su yolu olan K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz koridorunu tehdit ediyor. Portf\u00f6yleri g\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131klar\u0131na ani y\u00f6neli\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in uzun USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n korunmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, USD\/IDR implied volatilitesindeki y\u00fckselen primden yararlan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki olas\u0131 yeni t\u0131rmanmalar\u0131n USD\/IDR paritesini kritik 18.000 e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerine kolayl\u0131kla ta\u015f\u0131yabilece\u011fi i\u00e7in ham petrol t\u00fcrevlerini de yak\u0131ndan izlemeliyiz. Uzun volatilite stratejilerini se\u00e7ici Rupiah korunmalar\u0131yla dengelemek, bu i\u00e7 i\u00e7e ge\u00e7en riskleri y\u00f6netmemize yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n