Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya seans\u0131n\u0131n erken saatlerinde 4.125 dolar civar\u0131nda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti ve ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda ikinci haftas\u0131na giren t\u0131rmanan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131klar\u0131na olan talebi art\u0131rmas\u0131yla toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131, Washington\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki gemilere y\u00f6nelik herhangi bir sald\u0131r\u0131ya kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k olarak Tahran\u2019daki \u0130ran varl\u0131klar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar konusunda uyar\u0131da bulunmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 hatlar\u0131 ve b\u00f6lgesel enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin tehditlerde kald\u0131. \u0130ran ise b\u00f6lgede ABD ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 altyap\u0131 ve enerji tesislerini hedef alabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131. Diplomatik mesajla\u015fma da e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak devam ederken, ABD gerilim geni\u015flese bile duru\u015funu h\u00e2l\u00e2 diplomasiye d\u00f6n\u00fck olarak \u00e7er\u00e7eveledi.<\/p>\n\n
Faiz beklentileri de de\u011fi\u015fti. Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri, ge\u00e7en hafta %10 olan olas\u0131l\u0131\u011fa k\u0131yasla bu ay Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini yakla\u015f\u0131k %34 olarak fiyatlad\u0131; CME FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re piyasalar ayr\u0131ca Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de en az 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %78 seviyesinde g\u00f6rd\u00fc. K\u0131sa vadeli fiyat hareketinin \u00f6tesinde, merkez bankalar\u0131 k\u00fcl\u00e7enin en b\u00fcy\u00fck sahipleri ve al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor; D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi verilerine g\u00f6re 2022\u2019de rezervlere yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n eklendi. Alt\u0131n\u0131n daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 belirleyicileri aras\u0131nda ABD Dolar\u0131 ve ABD Hazine tahvilleriyle ters y\u00f6nl\u00fc ili\u015fkisi ile getirisi olmayan bir varl\u0131k olarak faiz oran\u0131 seviyelerine duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Alt\u0131n 4.000 dolar seviyesinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban bulduktan sonra 4.125 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda t\u0131rmanan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, de\u011ferli metale g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 ani krizler Alt\u0131n Volatilite Endeksi\u2019nin (GVZ) %30\u2019un \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na yol a\u00e7arak opsiyon primlerini h\u0131zla \u015fi\u015firebiliyor.<\/p>\n\n
Bununla birlikte, bu g\u00fcvenli liman cazibesini y\u00fckselen faiz beklentilerine kar\u015f\u0131 dengelemek gerekiyor; piyasa verileri art\u0131k Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini %78 olarak g\u00f6steriyor. Daha y\u00fcksek faizler tarihsel olarak getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r; bu da Federal Rezerv enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede \u015fahin kal\u0131rsa alt\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyelinin s\u0131n\u0131rlanabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bunu y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, do\u011frudan al\u0131m (outright) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 yerine s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli dikey al\u0131m spread\u2019lerinin (vertical call spread) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; b\u00f6ylece h\u0131zl\u0131 zaman de\u011feri erimesine kar\u015f\u0131 sermaye korunabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca y\u00fckselen enerji fiyatlar\u0131 k\u00fcresel enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc daha da karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131rma riski ta\u015f\u0131yor; bu da alt\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede ne kadar y\u00fckselebilece\u011fini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. 4.000 dolarl\u0131k taban son geri \u00e7ekilmelerde sa\u011flam \u015fekilde korundu\u011fu i\u00e7in, bu seviyenin alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131, gelir \u00fcretmek a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olduk\u00e7a uygulanabilir bir y\u00f6ntem olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, y\u00fcksek seyreden ima edilen volatiliteden faydalan\u0131rken g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve tarihsel olarak do\u011frulanm\u0131\u015f bir destek b\u00f6lgesine dayanmay\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n