EUR\/USD, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ge\u00e7 saatlerde 1,1400 civar\u0131nda seyretti ve g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,08 art\u0131da kapatt\u0131; ancak euro, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki genel zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 bir \u015fekilde fiyatlayamad\u0131. Jeopolitik risk, Dolara taban olu\u015fturdu: ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 12\u2019nci g\u00fcn\u00fcne uzarken, UK Maritime Trade Operations K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019de bir tankere sald\u0131r\u0131 d\u00fczenlendi\u011fini bildirdi ve Yemen\u2019deki Husiler iki Suudi petrol tankerini vurduklar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ham petrol\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 88 dolara yakla\u015farak yakla\u015f\u0131k %8 y\u00fckseldi; bu da daha y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetlerinin Fed\u2019in daha s\u0131k\u0131 politikas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7ekip \u00e7ekemeyece\u011fine dair oda\u011f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n
Faiz beklentileri buna paralel de\u011fi\u015fti. Prime Terminal\u2019e g\u00f6re para piyasalar\u0131, 29 Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Fed\u2019in faizi sabit tutma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %63 olarak fiyatlad\u0131; faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise bir g\u00fcn \u00f6nceki %23\u2019ten %37\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. Dikkat daha sonra Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 karar\u0131na \u00e7evriliyor; mevduat faizi oran\u0131n\u0131n %2,25\u2019te de\u011fi\u015fmeden kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor, ard\u0131ndan Christine Lagarde\u2019\u0131n bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 izlenecek. ABD\u2019de 18 Temmuz\u2019da sona eren haftaya ili\u015fkin haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n 208 binden 212 bine y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde EUR\/USD 1,1408\u2019den i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; 1,1510 civar\u0131ndaki \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Destek 1,1396 civar\u0131nda; diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 1,1570, 1,1574 ve 1,1849 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI 43,38 seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD 1,1400 yak\u0131n\u0131nda seyrederken ve K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019de jeopolitik gerilim t\u0131rman\u0131rken, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu dar i\u015flem aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan sert bir k\u0131r\u0131lma bekliyoruz. Piyasan\u0131n \u015fu anda bu jeopolitik riskleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar yakla\u015fan volatilite s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli straddle al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli. Tarihsel olarak ani enerji \u015foklar\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 kur hareketlerini tetikler; bu da uzun volatilite opsiyon stratejilerini \u015fu a\u015famada olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Olas\u0131 bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lma senaryosuna kar\u015f\u0131 konumlanmak i\u00e7in, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 1,1250 civar\u0131nda EUR\/USD put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Avrupa, net enerji ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc ithal etti\u011fi i\u00e7in enerji fiyat \u015foklar\u0131na olduk\u00e7a hassas; ham petrol sert y\u00fckseldi\u011finde bu durum tarihsel olarak euro \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Yak\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki enerji krizleri s\u0131ras\u0131nda Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015f ve ortak para birimi \u00f6nemli psikolojik destek seviyelerinin alt\u0131na sarkm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Faiz t\u00fcrevlerinde de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; \u00f6zellikle k\u0131sa vadeli Euribor vadeli i\u015flemlerinde sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon al\u0131p bunu SOFR vadeli i\u015flemlerine g\u00f6re relatif (spread) \u015fekilde kurgulamak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. 29 Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %37\u2019ye y\u00fckselmesi ve ECB\u2019nin %2,25\u2019te sabit kalmas\u0131yla getiri fark\u0131 ABD Dolar\u0131 lehine belirgin bi\u00e7imde a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, piyasa \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d ABD faizleri ger\u00e7e\u011fine uyum sa\u011flarken geni\u015fleyen bu politika fark\u0131ndan faydalanabilir.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da olas\u0131 yeni t\u0131rman\u0131\u015flara kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131 hedefleyen, \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money) WTI ham petrol call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz gibi kritik deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 hatlar\u0131n\u0131 tehdit eden askeri \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar, tedarik zinciri kaynakl\u0131 panik nedeniyle petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %10 ila %15 s\u0131\u00e7ratabilir. Bu yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli opsiyonlarla yakalamak, enflasyon kaynakl\u0131 piyasa sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 daha geni\u015f d\u00f6viz portf\u00f6ylerimizi korumaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n