{"id":51494,"date":"2026-07-23T02:00:47","date_gmt":"2026-07-23T02:00:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/abd-dolari-hurmuz-geriliminin-petrol-ve-altini-yukseltmesiyle-geriliyor-piyasalar-ecb-ve-abd-issizlik-basvurularini-bekliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-07-23T02:00:47","modified_gmt":"2026-07-23T02:00:47","slug":"abd-dolari-hurmuz-geriliminin-petrol-ve-altini-yukseltmesiyle-geriliyor-piyasalar-ecb-ve-abd-issizlik-basvurularini-bekliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/abd-dolari-hurmuz-geriliminin-petrol-ve-altini-yukseltmesiyle-geriliyor-piyasalar-ecb-ve-abd-issizlik-basvurularini-bekliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD dolar\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz geriliminin petrol ve alt\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmesiyle geriliyor; piyasalar ECB ve ABD i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD Dolar\u0131, \u0130ran ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 etraf\u0131ndaki gerilimin piyasalar\u0131 temkinli tutmas\u0131yla \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc hafif geriledi. Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 101,10\u2013101,13 band\u0131na do\u011fru sarkarken, EUR\/USD 1,1410\u2019a do\u011fru g\u00fc\u00e7lendi ve USD\/JPY 163,15 civar\u0131nda tutundu. Enerji ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda aksama endi\u015feleriyle petrol ve de\u011ferli metaller g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; WTI varil ba\u015f\u0131na 86,40 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak %2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi, alt\u0131n ise %1\u2019in \u00fczerinde primle 4.135 dolara do\u011fru t\u0131rmand\u0131.<\/p>\n

G\u00f6zler Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Haftal\u0131k \u0130\u015fsizlik Maa\u015f\u0131 Ba\u015fvurular\u0131\u2019na \u00e7evrildi; beklenti 212 bin, \u00f6nceki 208 bin. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Ana Refinansman Operasyonlar\u0131 Faizi\u2019ni %2,40\u2019ta ve Mevduat Kolayl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Faizi\u2019ni %2,25\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131 beklenirken, Ba\u015fkan Christine Lagarde\u2019\u0131n bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de GfK T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni\u2019nin Temmuz\u2019da -23\u2019ten -21\u2019e iyile\u015fmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Avustralya\u2019da istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 40,3 binden 15 bine gerilemeye i\u015faret ederken, \u0130\u015fsizlik Oran\u0131 %4,4 ve \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne Kat\u0131l\u0131m Oran\u0131 %66,7 bekleniyor. Japonya\u2019da taze g\u0131da hari\u00e7 \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %1,4\u2019ten %1,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselmesi; Kanada\u2019da Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar\u2019\u0131n ayl\u0131k %0,5\u2019ten %1,0\u2019a ve otomobil hari\u00e7 verinin %0,1\u2019den %1,4\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

Jeopolitik Gerilimler ve Merkez Bankas\u0131 Riskleri i\u00e7in T\u00fcrev Stratejiler<\/h3>\n

T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki zay\u0131flaman\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine haz\u0131rl\u0131k olarak, fiyatlar\u0131n 4.135 dolarl\u0131k tarihi seviyelere yak\u0131n seyretti\u011fi alt\u0131n al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 hedeflemesini \u00f6neriyoruz. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda t\u0131rmanan jeopolitik gerilim nedeniyle g\u00fcvenli liman talebi artarken, alt\u0131n tarihsel olarak tedarik zinciri krizlerinde %10\u2019un \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyeli g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir. Ayr\u0131ca 86,40 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rayan ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sevkiyat aksakl\u0131klar\u0131na y\u00fcksek duyarl\u0131l\u0131k ta\u015f\u0131yan WTI ham petrol\u00fcnde, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasa fiyat\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 da de\u011ferlendirilmelidir.<\/p>\n

Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yakla\u015fan faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde, beklenen oynakl\u0131ktan faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli EUR\/USD straddle al\u0131m\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Parite 1,1410 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken faizlerin sabit kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor; ancak Christine Lagarde\u2019dan gelebilecek beklenmedik \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir ton, sert bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Tarihsel veriler, Euro z\u0131mni volatilite endekslerinin merkez bankas\u0131 karar g\u00fcnlerinde %15 ila %20 s\u0131\u00e7rama e\u011filiminde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor; bu da prim al\u0131m\u0131na dayal\u0131 stratejileri \u015fu a\u015famada olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Ana Pariteler ve Emtia Para Birimlerinde F\u0131rsatlar<\/h3>\n

USD\/JPY, 163,15 ile \u00e7ok on y\u0131ll\u0131k zirvelere yak\u0131n seyrederken, Japonya enflasyon verileri ve olas\u0131 kamu m\u00fcdahalesinin yaratabilece\u011fi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmal\u0131. Yen\u2019in tarihsel e\u015fikleri a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen, milyarlarca dolarl\u0131k d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahaleleri, USD\/JPY sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip bir korunma arac\u0131 haline getiriyor. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019si beklenen %1,6\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerine ivmelenirse, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) piyasalar\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha erken s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya zorlanabilir.<\/p>\n

Emtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 para birimlerindeki ayr\u0131\u015fmadan yararlanmak amac\u0131yla, USD\/CAD 1,4090\u2019a do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilirken Kanada Dolar\u0131 (CAD) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131nda uzun pozisyon \u00f6neriyoruz. Kanada ekonomisi petrol rallisinden do\u011frudan fayda sa\u011fl\u0131yor ve yakla\u015fan perakende sat\u0131\u015f verisi i\u00e7 talep kaynakl\u0131 ek bir destek sunabilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Haziran istihdam raporu \u00f6ncesinde Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019nda temkinli duru\u015fun korunmas\u0131n\u0131; AUD\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda 0,6995 seviyesi \u00e7evresinde s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) kullan\u0131larak riskin s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi dolar\u0131 bask\u0131lad\u0131: DXY 101,1\u2019e inerken euro 1,1410\u2019a g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Petrol 86,4$+, alt\u0131n 4.135$\u2019a t\u0131rmand\u0131. Piyasalar ABD i\u015fsizlik, ECB ve kritik verileri bekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51494","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51494","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51494"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51494\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50005"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51494"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51494"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51494"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}