{"id":51488,"date":"2026-07-23T00:29:22","date_gmt":"2026-07-23T00:29:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/karisik-gelen-ingiltere-enflasyonu-boe-gorunumunu-bulandirirken-ecb-karari-oncesinde-eur-gbp-yukselise-gecti\/"},"modified":"2026-07-23T00:29:22","modified_gmt":"2026-07-23T00:29:22","slug":"karisik-gelen-ingiltere-enflasyonu-boe-gorunumunu-bulandirirken-ecb-karari-oncesinde-eur-gbp-yukselise-gecti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/karisik-gelen-ingiltere-enflasyonu-boe-gorunumunu-bulandirirken-ecb-karari-oncesinde-eur-gbp-yukselise-gecti\/","title":{"rendered":"Kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k gelen \u0130ngiltere enflasyonu BoE g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc buland\u0131r\u0131rken, ECB karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde EUR\/GBP y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7ti"},"content":{"rendered":"

EUR\/GBP \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,8533 seviyesine y\u00fckselerek, paritenin bu ay\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine dokunmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ba\u015flayan toparlanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. \u0130ngiltere enflasyon verileri sterlin a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k sinyaller verdi. \u0130ngiltere T\u00dcFE haziranda %0,1 artt\u0131; beklentilerle uyumlu olmakla birlikte may\u0131staki %0,2\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon %2,8\u2019den %2,6\u2019ya gerileyerek %2,7\u2019lik piyasa uzla\u015f\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon %2,6 ile sabit kald\u0131 ve %2,5\u2019lik beklentinin \u00fczerinde geldi; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, daha yumu\u015fak \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ve zay\u0131f i\u015fe al\u0131mlara i\u015faret eden istihdam raporunun ard\u0131ndan izlendi.<\/p>\n

Man\u015fet enflasyondaki yava\u015flama ile \u00e7ekirdekteki inat\u00e7\u0131 bask\u0131lar\u0131n birle\u015fimi, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden petrol ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 bozan ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 iten ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden alevlenmesine ra\u011fmen, piyasalar\u0131n \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) yak\u0131n vadeli s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma alan\u0131n\u0131 yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Swap e\u011frisi, BoE\u2019nin kas\u0131mda politika faizini 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %4,00\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131 tamamen fiyatl\u0131yor ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ayda toplam 75 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. \u00d6te yandan, yeni Ba\u015fbakan Andy Burnham\u2019\u0131n harcama planlar\u0131 alt\u0131nda \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin mali g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc de yak\u0131ndan izleniyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde ise g\u00f6zler Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc ECB karar\u0131na \u00e7evrildi; haziranda 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Mevduat Kolayl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Faizi\u2019nin %2,25\u2019te sabit tutulmas\u0131 beklenirken, piyasalar eyl\u00fclde bir art\u0131r\u0131m daha fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Dalgal\u0131 Makro Arka Planda T\u00fcrev Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, paritenin son bir y\u0131ll\u0131k dipten toparlanmas\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na uzun EUR\/GBP al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 veya bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019leri (bull call spread) kurmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Parite 0,8533 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, \u0130ngiltere\u2019de %2,6\u2019ya so\u011fuyan enflasyon ve zay\u0131flayan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 Sterlin \u00fczerinde s\u00fcregelen a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131ya i\u015faret ediyor. Bu opsiyon stratejisi, y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k ortam\u0131nda prim riskini s\u0131n\u0131rlarken EUR\/GBP\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli yakalamam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcm g\u00f6zler bug\u00fcn Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n politika karar\u0131nda; yetkililerin mevduat faizini %2,25\u2019te tutmas\u0131 yayg\u0131n bir beklenti. Euro opsiyonlar\u0131ndaki z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi; bu, y\u00fckselen enerji maliyetleri nedeniyle daha \u015fahin bir duru\u015f beklentisini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. ECB\u2019nin bug\u00fcn eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde i\u015faret etmesi halinde, Euro\u2019nun 0,8600\u2019daki kilit direncin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n

Sterlin K\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Jeopolitik Korunma<\/h3>\n

Bu arada swap piyasalar\u0131 agresif BoE s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlamaya ba\u015flarken, Sterlin k\u0131r\u0131lgan kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Ba\u015fbakan Andy Burnham\u2019\u0131n geni\u015flemeci harcama planlar\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair endi\u015feleri art\u0131r\u0131yor; bu durum tarihsel olarak Sterlin\u2019i zay\u0131flat\u0131r. GBP vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon almak veya zararda GBP sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131n almak, bu mali gev\u015femeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle i\u015flemeye imkan verir.<\/p>\n

Ayr\u0131ca Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik riskleri de hesaba katmak gerekiyor; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar k\u00fcresel petrol g\u00f6stergelerini yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Uzayan bir enerji \u015fokunun genellikle Euro B\u00f6lgesi ekonomisine \u0130ngiltere\u2019ye k\u0131yasla daha fazla zarar vermesi nedeniyle, ge\u00e7ici bir korunma olarak k\u0131sa vadeli EUR\/GBP sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu dengeli yakla\u015f\u0131m, enerji enflasyonunda ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalara kar\u015f\u0131 temel uzun Euro pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 korur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

EUR\/GBP 0,8533\u2019e t\u0131rman\u0131yor: \u0130ngiltere\u2019de man\u015fet enflasyon so\u011fusa da \u00e7ekirdek inat\u00e7\u0131, BoE beklentileri yeniden \u015fekilleniyor. G\u00f6zler ECB\u2019de; opsiyonla y\u00fckseli\u015f, jeopolitikle temkin \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50104,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51488","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51488","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51488"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51488\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50104"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51488"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51488"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51488"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}