Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 52.400 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; yakla\u015f\u0131k 200 puan y\u00fckselerek art arda ikinci g\u00fcnl\u00fck kazanc\u0131na y\u00f6neldi. Endeks, 52.000\u2019in hemen \u00fczerini test ettikten sonra k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 52.500\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ancak ard\u0131ndan geri \u00e7ekildi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k S&P 500 yataya yak\u0131n seyrederken, NASDAQ Bile\u015fik Endeksi eksilere ge\u00e7ti. Per\u015fembeye kadar s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ABD verisi ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 nedeniyle piyasalar jeopolitik man\u015fetleri ve bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131. ABD g\u00fc\u00e7leri \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik \u00fcst \u00fcste 11\u2019inci sald\u0131r\u0131 dalgas\u0131n\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirirken, Washington H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n korunaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yineledi; buna ham petrol tepkisi de sert oldu. WTI 86,00 dolar\u0131n, Brent ise 93,00 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karken Brent k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 95,00 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerini g\u00f6rd\u00fc; her iki kontrat da haziran ortas\u0131 seviyelerinde g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %2 y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Piyasalarda ana belirleyici bilan\u00e7olar olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; S&P 500\u2019\u00fcn erken a\u00e7\u0131klama yapan \u015firketlerinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %88\u2019i k\u00e2r beklentilerini a\u015ft\u0131 ve Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 3M ile General Motors\u2019tan gelen sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n etkisi devam etti. Seans kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 Alphabet, Tesla, ServiceNow, Texas Instruments ve IBM\u2019in bilan\u00e7o a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 bekleniyordu. IBM, temmuz ortas\u0131nda gelen k\u00e2r uyar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n tek seansta de\u011ferinin yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rtte birini silmesinin ard\u0131ndan dikkat \u00e7ekti; endeks hesaplamas\u0131 gere\u011fi bu hareket Dow\u2019da 400 puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde negatif etki yaratt\u0131. Di\u011fer yandan Super Micro Computer yakla\u015f\u0131k %24 y\u00fckseldi, AT&T %3 artt\u0131, GE Vernova %5 geriledi ve Reddit %9 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Trump ise A\u011fustos 2028\u2019den itibaren ithal jenerik ila\u00e7lara %100 tarife, bir y\u0131l sonra da %200 tarife uygulanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisi %4,63 civar\u0131nda kald\u0131. Veri g\u00fcndemi; i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n 208 binden 212 bine y\u00fckselmesi, temmuz \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI\u2019larda imalat\u0131n 53,9\u2019dan 54,5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ve hizmetlerin yakla\u015f\u0131k 51 seviyesinde gelmesi, ayr\u0131ca \u00f6nceki %7,3\u2019l\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan haziran yeni konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eriyor. Fed karar\u0131 29 Temmuz\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Teknik tarafta diren\u00e7 52.500\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde, ard\u0131ndan 52.800 ve 53.300\u2019\u00fcn hemen \u00fczerinde (yakla\u015f\u0131k 900 puan yukar\u0131da) konumlan\u0131yor. Destekler ise 52.000, ard\u0131ndan 51.800 ve 51.500\u2019\u00fcn hemen alt\u0131ndaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA seviyeleri. G\u00fcnl\u00fck Stochastic RSI yakla\u015f\u0131k 33 seviyesinde ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fckselen enerji maliyetlerine kar\u015f\u0131 derhal korunma sa\u011flamal\u0131; West Texas Intermediate (WTI) \u00fczerine veya enerji ETF\u2019leri \u00fczerine al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) sat\u0131n almal\u0131y\u0131z. K\u00fcresel petrol s\u0131v\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n %20\u2019sinden fazlas\u0131n\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, buradaki herhangi bir t\u0131rmanma ham petrolde h\u0131zla \u00e7ift haneli s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 tetikleme riski ta\u015f\u0131yor. Bo\u011fa call spreadleri kullanmak, prim riskimizi s\u0131n\u0131rlarken bu yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli yakalamam\u0131za imk\u00e2n verir.<\/p>\n
Dow Jones\u2019un 52.400 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrederken Nasdaq\u2019\u0131n gerilemesi, opsiyon portf\u00f6ylerimizde uzun vadeli b\u00fcy\u00fcme hisseleri yerine de\u011fer (value) temas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karmam\u0131z gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. G\u00f6reli de\u011fer i\u015flemi olarak Dow (DIA) \u00fczerine call al\u0131rken, teknoloji a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 endekslerde koruyucu sat\u0131m (put) alabiliriz. Bu pozisyonlama, enerji maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131yla teknoloji hisselerinde \u00e7arpan daralmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Alphabet, Tesla ve IBM gibi a\u011f\u0131r toplar\u0131n bilan\u00e7o a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131yla birlikte, a\u00e7\u0131klama sonras\u0131 \u201cimplied volatility\u201dnin sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne (volatility crush) kar\u015f\u0131 i\u015flem plan\u0131 haz\u0131rlamam\u0131z gerekiyor. IBM\u2019in \u00f6nceki k\u00e2r uyar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferinin %25\u2019ini silmesi\u2014tarihsel olarak istikrarl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli \u015firketlerde %1\u2019den daha az g\u00f6r\u00fclen bir hareket\u2014opsiyon primlerinin \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u015fi\u015fti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. A\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n hemen ard\u0131ndan bu prim erimesini yakalamak i\u00e7in kredi spreadleri veya iron condor stratejileriyle prim sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilmelidir.<\/p>\n
Tahvil piyasas\u0131nda 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizin %4,63 civar\u0131nda sakin bi\u00e7imde korunmas\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n 29 Temmuz\u2019daki Fed karar\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Fed \u015fu anda \u201cblackout\u201d d\u00f6neminde oldu\u011fundan piyasada resmi y\u00f6nlendirme eksikli\u011fi var; bu durum tarihsel olarak k\u0131sa vadeli volatiliteyi bask\u0131lar. Bu g\u00f6rece ucuz prim penceresini kullanarak, gelecek haftaki faiz karar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 ve PCE enflasyon verisi \u00f6ncesinde S&P 500 \u00fczerinde straddle al\u0131mlar\u0131 yap\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, Dow 52.000 kritik destek seviyesi \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece k\u0131sa vadede y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz korunuyor. Ancak g\u00fcnl\u00fck Stochastic RSI\u2019\u0131n 33\u2019e gerilemesi momentumu belirgin \u015fekilde zay\u0131flat\u0131yor; bu nedenle do\u011frudan uzun (long) pozisyon al\u0131mlar\u0131ndan ka\u00e7\u0131nmal\u0131y\u0131z. Endeks 51.800\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda kapan\u0131\u015f yaparsa, h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc korunmaya d\u00f6n\u00fcp 51.500 civar\u0131ndaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019y\u0131 hedefleyecek sat\u0131m (put) al\u0131mlar\u0131na ge\u00e7memiz gerekir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n