{"id":51483,"date":"2026-07-22T22:59:11","date_gmt":"2026-07-22T22:59:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/sterlin-ingilterede-enflasyonun-yavaslamasiyla-13380-yakininda-tutunuyor-faiz-beklentileri-boe-ve-fede-odaklandi\/"},"modified":"2026-07-22T22:59:11","modified_gmt":"2026-07-22T22:59:11","slug":"sterlin-ingilterede-enflasyonun-yavaslamasiyla-13380-yakininda-tutunuyor-faiz-beklentileri-boe-ve-fede-odaklandi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/sterlin-ingilterede-enflasyonun-yavaslamasiyla-13380-yakininda-tutunuyor-faiz-beklentileri-boe-ve-fede-odaklandi\/","title":{"rendered":"Sterlin, \u0130ngiltere\u2019de Enflasyonun Yava\u015flamas\u0131yla 1,3380 Yak\u0131n\u0131nda Tutunuyor; Faiz Beklentileri BoE ve Fed\u2019e Odakland\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sterlin, \u0130ngiliz Haziran T\u00dcFE\u2019sinin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,8\u2019den %2,6\u2019ya gerilemesinin ard\u0131ndan Kuzey Amerika seans\u0131nda yatay seyretti; \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE ise %2,6\u2019da kald\u0131. GBP\/USD 1,3377 seviyesindeydi. Faiz beklentileri g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131rken, Prime Terminal verilerine g\u00f6re piyasalar 5 Kas\u0131m toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gitme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %82 olarak fiyatlad\u0131. ABD taraf\u0131nda veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yd\u0131; ancak yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar 18 Temmuz\u2019da sona eren haftaya ili\u015fkin haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra S&P \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI verileri ve gelecek haftaki Fed karar\u0131na odakland\u0131. Para piyasalar\u0131, yine Prime Terminal \u00fczerinden, 29 Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizin sabit kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %65 olarak de\u011ferlendirirken bu oran bir g\u00fcn \u00f6nce %78\u2019di.<\/p>\n

Enerji ve jeopolitik ba\u015fl\u0131klar oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131: WTI %2,5\u2019ten fazla y\u00fckselerek 86,70 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; benzin fiyatlar\u0131 Temmuz ay\u0131nda \u015fu ana kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k %24 artt\u0131. Bununla birlikte fiyatlar, WTI\u2019\u0131n Haziran ay\u0131ndaki taban seviyesi olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen 90 dolar\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 alt\u0131nda. Grafiklerde GBP\/USD 1,3375\u2019te i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, 1,3464, 1,3468 ve 1,3472\u2019de k\u00fcmelenen 50, 100 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n (SMA) yan\u0131 s\u0131ra 1,3476\u2019daki trend direncinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. RSI (14) 50 seviyesinde izlenirken, FXS Fed Duyarl\u0131l\u0131k Endeksi 128,64\u2019t\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Sterlin\u2019de A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 Y\u00f6nl\u00fc Pozisyonlanma ve De\u011fi\u015fen Merkez Bankas\u0131 Beklentileri<\/h3>\n

T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alarak veya bear call spread stratejileri kullanarak GBP\/USD\u2019de olas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. Parite, 1,3464 ile 1,3472 aras\u0131ndaki kilit hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir diren\u00e7le kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Tarihsel olarak, Sterlin bu teknik tavanlar\u0131 a\u015famad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ve momentum g\u00f6stergeleri n\u00f6tr seyretti\u011finde, spot fiyat\u0131n son dip seviyelere do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilme e\u011filimi art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Fed\u2019in 29 Temmuz\u2019daki faiz karar\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131rken, faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerindeki de\u011fi\u015fen duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemeliyiz. Piyasan\u0131n Fed\u2019in faizi sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131na dair z\u0131mni olas\u0131l\u0131k k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede %78\u2019den %65\u2019e geriledi; bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha \u201caktif\u201d bir merkez bankas\u0131na haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu oynakl\u0131ktan, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemleriyle i\u015flem yaparak veya faiz beklentilerindeki ani ayarlamalardan faydalanmak i\u00e7in takvim spreadleri (calendar spreads) kurarak yararlanabiliriz.<\/p>\n

Enerji Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131, Opsiyon Stratejileri ve Sterlin Korumas\u0131<\/h3>\n

Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da t\u0131rmanan gerilimlerin etkisiyle WTI ham petrol\u00fcn 86,70 dolara ani s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, enerji piyasas\u0131nda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmam\u0131z gerekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Petrol opsiyonlar\u0131nda z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k, b\u00fcy\u00fck deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 hatlar\u0131na yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgelerde aktif asker\u00ee tehdit d\u00f6nemlerinde tarihsel olarak %15 ila %25 aras\u0131nda y\u00fckselme e\u011filiminde. Bu risk priminden faydalanmak i\u00e7in, ham petrolde vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 veya b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131ndan k\u00e2r etmeyi hedefleyen long straddle stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n

\u0130ngiltere\u2019de enflasyonun %2,6\u2019ya gerilemesi yerel politika yap\u0131c\u0131lara bir miktar hareket alan\u0131 sa\u011flasa da, piyasa h\u00e2l\u00e2 Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda BoE\u2019nin faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %82 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Sterlin\u2019deki uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n, ani bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 haftal\u0131k put opsiyonlar\u0131yla korunmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f enerji \u015foklar\u0131, h\u0131zla y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ngiltere ekonomisi \u00fczerinde belirgin bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; ham petrol\u00fcn yeniden 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 durumunda Sterlin\u2019in de kolayl\u0131kla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekilebilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u015eok veri: \u0130ngiltere T\u00dcFE %2,6\u2019ya inse de Sterlin yatay; BoE\u2019de Kas\u0131m faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %82 fiyatlan\u0131yor. Fed belirsizli\u011fi ve petrol 86,70$\u2019la oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131rken GBP\/USD 1,3464-1,3472 direncinde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50047,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51483","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51483","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51483"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51483\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50047"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51483"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51483"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51483"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}