{"id":51481,"date":"2026-07-22T22:29:03","date_gmt":"2026-07-22T22:29:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/rusyanin-haziran-ufesi-yuzde-01-geriledi-bu-durum-merkez-bankasinin-gevseme-egilimine-yonelik-beklentileri-guclendirdi\/"},"modified":"2026-07-22T22:29:03","modified_gmt":"2026-07-22T22:29:03","slug":"rusyanin-haziran-ufesi-yuzde-01-geriledi-bu-durum-merkez-bankasinin-gevseme-egilimine-yonelik-beklentileri-guclendirdi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/rusyanin-haziran-ufesi-yuzde-01-geriledi-bu-durum-merkez-bankasinin-gevseme-egilimine-yonelik-beklentileri-guclendirdi\/","title":{"rendered":"Rusya\u2019n\u0131n haziran \u00dcFE\u2019si y\u00fczde 0,1 geriledi; bu durum merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n gev\u015feme e\u011filimine y\u00f6nelik beklentileri g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Rusya\u2019n\u0131n \u00fcretici fiyat endeksi (\u00dcFE), haziranda ayl\u0131k bazda %0,1 gerileyerek \u00f6nceki aydaki %2,5\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Bu hareket, d\u00f6nem boyunca fabrika \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131ndaki ivmenin so\u011fudu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k bazda +%2,5\u2019ten -%0,1\u2019e d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, ayl\u0131k \u00fcretici fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda 2,6 puanl\u0131k bir bozulmaya kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor. Haziran verisi, may\u0131staki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00dcFE\u2019yi yeniden negatif b\u00f6lgeye ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131.<\/p>\n

Rusya\u2019da Enflasyondaki De\u011fi\u015fim ve Para Politikas\u0131 G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n

Rusya\u2019da enflasyon dinamiklerinde belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz: \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (\u00dcFE) haziranda ayl\u0131k bazda %2,5\u2019ten -%0,1\u2019e sert \u015fekilde geriledi. Bu ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, Rusya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n politika faizini %16 ve \u00fczerinde tutarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n sanayi talebini nihayet so\u011futmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 bunu, Rusya\u2019da parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n zirvesinin geride kalm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fine dair g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir sinyal olarak de\u011ferlendirmeli.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrev Piyasas\u0131 Perspektifi ve \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, \u00f6zellikle faiz swaplar\u0131 ve Rusya devlet tahvili (OFZ) vadeli i\u015flemlerinde sabit getirili t\u00fcrevlerde olas\u0131 bir \u201cpivot\u201da y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, ayl\u0131k bazda negatif \u00dcFE bask\u0131s\u0131 iki ay i\u00e7inde t\u00fcketici enflasyonunu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7eker; bu da merkez bankas\u0131 \u00fczerinde k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 duru\u015fu gev\u015fetme y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturur. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, getirilerin %15\u2019in \u00fczerindeki son zirvelerinden geri \u00e7ekilmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131yla tahvil vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun (long) pozisyon alarak kazan\u00e7 yakalamay\u0131 hedefleyebilir.<\/p>\n

Bu dezenflasyonist bask\u0131n\u0131n emtia t\u00fcrevlerini de etkilemesini bekliyoruz; daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck girdi maliyetleri, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n petrol ve metallerde ihracat marjlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. Bu durum Urals ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinin fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 etkileyebilir ve Brent referans\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 spreadi opsiyonlar taraf\u0131nda daraltabilir. \u00d6te yandan Ruble vekil enstr\u00fcmanlar\u0131n\u0131 kullanan d\u00f6viz yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, y\u00fcksek getirili Ruble \u201ccarry trade\u201dlerinin cazibesi azalmaya ba\u015flarken k\u0131sa vadeli oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Rusya\u2019da \u00dcFE haziranda ayl\u0131k %2,5\u2019ten -%0,1\u2019e d\u00f6nd\u00fc: fabrika fiyatlar\u0131 so\u011fuyor. Bu, enflasyonda gev\u015feme ve faiz \u201cpivotu\u201d beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor; OFZ vadeli long, swap pozisyonu, emtia spread daralmas\u0131 g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49991,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51481","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51481","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51481"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51481\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49991"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51481"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51481"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51481"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}