ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran\u2019a uyar\u0131da bulunarak Tahran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki gemileri hedef almas\u0131 halinde ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran altyap\u0131s\u0131na sald\u0131r\u0131lar d\u00fczenleyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Truth Social payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131nda Trump, su yolundaki bir gemiye \u201cf\u00fcze, roket, drone ya da ba\u015fka herhangi bir cihaz veya silahla\u201d yap\u0131lacak her t\u00fcrl\u00fc sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n, ABD\u2019yi Tahran\u2019\u0131n yan\u0131nda ya da Tahran\u2019da bulunan noktalar da dahil olmak \u00fczere bir k\u00f6pr\u00fc veya elektrik santralini \u201cbombalay\u0131p yok etmeye\u201d sevk edece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
A\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan piyasalar k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli hareketlendi. ABD Dolar\u0131, daha sonra momentum kaybetmeden \u00f6nce g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 101,11 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,08 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fteydi. Petrol y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; Bat\u0131 Teksas tipi ham petrol (WTI) 86,50 dolar civar\u0131nda, %2,75 art\u0131da seyrederek 11 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin uyar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin h\u0131zla t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda enerji piyasalar\u0131nda artan volatilite bekliyoruz. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte kritik bir bo\u011faz noktas\u0131 olup, g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyon varil petrol ge\u00e7i\u015fine arac\u0131l\u0131k ediyor; bu da k\u00fcresel s\u0131v\u0131 petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor. T\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, bug\u00fcn %2,75 y\u00fckselerek 86,50 dolara \u00e7\u0131kan WTI\u2019da sert dalgalanmalara derhal haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu jeopolitik riskten faydalanmak i\u00e7in, olas\u0131 arz kesintilerine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla WTI ham petrol \u00fczerinde uzun (long) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) veya enerji odakl\u0131 ETF\u2019lerde pozisyonlar\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Petrol opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilitenin mevcut seviyelerden belirgin \u015fekilde y\u00fckselmesi muhtemel; bu da primler daha da \u015fi\u015fmeden erken opsiyon al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, 2019\u2019daki tanker sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 gibi Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki benzer t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f d\u00f6nemlerinde ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 tek bir seansta %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7ram\u0131\u015f, bu t\u00fcr t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kazanabilece\u011fini g\u00f6stermi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik endi\u015felerin sermayeyi g\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131klar\u0131na y\u00f6nlendirmesiyle daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u201cgreenback\u201d (ABD dolar\u0131) senaryosuna g\u00f6re konumlanmay\u0131 da \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 101,11 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; ancak fiili bir askeri kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fma, b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u201ckaliteye ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d (flight to quality) dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyecektir. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, bu potansiyel yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten yararlanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131r\u0131lgan para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Sosyal medya \u00fczerinden yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n ve uluslararas\u0131 diplomasinin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez do\u011fas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, s\u0131k\u0131 risk y\u00f6netiminin alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izmek gerekiyor. Gerilimin aniden d\u00fc\u015fmesi halinde y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 kay\u0131plardan ka\u00e7\u0131nmak i\u00e7in, do\u011frudan vadeli i\u015flem kontratlar\u0131 yerine yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 opsiyon spread\u2019lerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 kritik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. Pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerini normalin alt\u0131nda tutmak, beklenen sert fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131mlar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda portf\u00f6yleri a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 teminat tamamlama (margin call) riskine maruz b\u0131rakmadan hareket etmeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n