WTI, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ve K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz \u00fczerinden ham petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 aksatmas\u0131yla \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 87,83 dolarla 11 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 86,20 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ABD ordusu \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 art arda on birinci gece de sald\u0131r\u0131 d\u00fczenlerken, Tahran Bahreyn, Kuveyt ve \u00dcrd\u00fcn\u2019\u00fc hedef alan sald\u0131r\u0131larla yan\u0131t verdi. Ayr\u0131 olarak, \u0130ran destekli Husilerin tehditlerinin ard\u0131ndan Suudi ham petrol\u00fc ta\u015f\u0131yan \u00fc\u00e7 tankerin K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019de rotas\u0131n\u0131 tersine \u00e7evirdi\u011fi bildirildi.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan WTI, bu ay ba\u015f\u0131nda sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi b\u00f6lge olan 67 dolar civar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden test etmesinin ard\u0131ndan toparland\u0131; ard\u0131ndan 74 dolar yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerine geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc ve \u015fimdi 88 dolar civar\u0131ndaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019y\u0131 zorluyor. Momentum g\u00f6stergeleri yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyrini koruyor: RSI (14) 66,61\u2019e y\u00fckselerek a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine yakla\u015ft\u0131; MACD ise MACD \u00e7izgisinin sinyal \u00e7izgisinin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 ve pozitif histogram\u0131n geni\u015flemesiyle pozitif b\u00f6lgede seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Destekler 80,00 dolar, ard\u0131ndan 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 74 dolar ve bunun alt\u0131nda 67,00 dolar seviyelerinde izleniyor; diren\u00e7 ise 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n bulundu\u011fu 88 dolar civar\u0131nda, sonras\u0131nda 95,00 dolar yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki b\u00f6lge \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u015fiddetli \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol s\u0131v\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sini ta\u015f\u0131yan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 gibi kritik deniz yollar\u0131n\u0131 tehdit etmesiyle petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda s\u0131\u00e7rama g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Suudi tankerlerinin K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019de rotalar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmesiyle tedarik zinciri k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar\u0131 WTI\u2019\u0131 86,20 dolara do\u011fru itiyor. T\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda jeopolitik risk primlerinin geni\u015flemesiyle ani fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik perspektiften, WTI\u2019\u0131n 88 dolardaki kritik 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019y\u0131 test etmesiyle volatilitenin artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi 66,61 ile a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m seviyelerine yakla\u015f\u0131rken, y\u00fckselen z\u0131mni volatilite nedeniyle do\u011frudan al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu sat\u0131n almak pahal\u0131 olabilir. Bunun yerine, prim maliyetlerini kontrol alt\u0131nda tutarken 95 dolar diren\u00e7 seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019lerinin (bull call spread) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Vadeli i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in, WTI\u2019\u0131n 88 dolar e\u015fi\u011fini net bi\u00e7imde k\u0131r\u0131p \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 durumunda uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n olu\u015fturulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Piyasan\u0131n ge\u00e7ici bir geri \u00e7ekilme ya\u015famas\u0131 halinde, 80 dolar psikolojik seviyesi ile 74 dolardaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama \u201cd\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte al\u0131m\u201d i\u00e7in kritik b\u00f6lgeler olacakt\u0131r. Ani bir gerilimin azalmas\u0131 haberine kar\u015f\u0131 sermayeyi korumak amac\u0131yla, bu destek seviyelerinin hemen alt\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) emirleri korunmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n