Piyasalar, petrol ve ticaret risklerinin yeniden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla ABD kaynakl\u0131 iki \u015foku sindiriyordu. IEA, mevcut d\u00f6nemi petrol piyasas\u0131 tarihindeki en b\u00fcy\u00fck kesinti olarak tan\u0131mlarken, t\u0131rmanan Orta Do\u011fu sava\u015f\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl vadeli WTI\u2019\u0131 haziran ortas\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131 ve enerji kaynakl\u0131 dezenflasyonu \u201cg\u00f6z ard\u0131 etme\u201d arg\u00fcmanlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Yar\u0131 iletken \u00fcretiminde kullan\u0131lan ve do\u011fal gaz yan \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc olan helyum arz\u0131 da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015f\u0131yordu. Ayr\u0131 bir cephede Washington, Brezilya\u2019ya y\u00f6nelik %25 tarife tehdidinin ve baz\u0131 Kanada mallar\u0131na %50 g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi uyar\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, s\u00fcresi dolmak \u00fczere olan \u201c\u00f6demeler dengesi\u201d tarifelerinin yerine \u201czorla \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131rma\u201d standartlar\u0131na ba\u011flanan yeni bir rejim getirebilece\u011fi sinyalini verdi. Dolar G10\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyrederken, NOK hari\u00e7 \u00e7o\u011fu parite +\/- %0,1 band\u0131nda kald\u0131; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirileri genel olarak daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, hisseler ise kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kt\u0131. Fed, gelecek haftaki FOMC \u00f6ncesinde sessiz d\u00f6nemindeydi; Alphabet ve Tesla bilan\u00e7o a\u00e7\u0131klayacakt\u0131.<\/p>\n
FX taraf\u0131nda EUR, yakla\u015f\u0131k 2,9 milyar EUR tutar\u0131nda vade sonu (expiry) etkisiyle 1,1400 $ civar\u0131nda seyretti; ABD\u2019nin 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri priminin Almanya\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 ~138 bp\u2019den ~146 bp\u2019ye geni\u015fledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. USD\/JPY, JPY163,25 civar\u0131nda 40 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine yak\u0131n tutundu; yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,6 milyar $\u2019l\u0131k opsiyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve ekim ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 haziran sonundaki %60\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k %83\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Sterlin, daha yumu\u015fak \u0130ngiltere enflasyonuna ra\u011fmen d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc seansta da gerileyerek 1,3360 $\u2019a yakla\u015ft\u0131; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Gilt getirisi iki ay\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve haziran T\u00dcFE ayl\u0131k %0,1 artarak y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,8\u2019den %2,6\u2019ya geriledi; \u00e7ekirdek %2,6\u2019da kald\u0131, hizmet enflasyonu %3,7\u2019den %3,6\u2019ya indi. Buna ek olarak hane ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 45 sterlin de\u011ferinde elektrikte KDV\u2019nin kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 plan\u0131, ulusal dijital kimlik teklifinden vazge\u00e7ilmesiyle dengelendi. ABD\u2019nin Kanada\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri primi 143 bp\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131karak May\u0131s 2025\u2019ten bu yana yeni zirveye ula\u015ft\u0131; tarife tehditleri Kanada\u2019dan ABD\u2019ye tahmini 20 milyar $\u2019l\u0131k ithalat\u0131 kapsarken USD\/CAD 1,4085\u20131,4110 band\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve 1,4075\u2019te 635 milyon $\u2019l\u0131k vade sonu vard\u0131. AUD, 0,7025 $ civar\u0131nda zirve yapt\u0131ktan sonra 0,7000 $ \u00e7evresinde zorland\u0131. GO\u00dc taraf\u0131nda Meksika\u2019n\u0131n may\u0131s perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 %0,1 art\u0131\u015f beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131 %0,6 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; Kolombiya pesosu yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,7 de\u011ferlendi ve USD\/COP 3200\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131; USD\/CNH, PBOC\u2019nin kuru 6,7933 CNY\u2019den belirlemesiyle 6,7760\u2019a do\u011fru toparland\u0131. Di\u011fer tarafta petrol y\u00fckselirken USD\/INR 96,5760\u2019a dokundu. Faiz ve emtiada, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisi %4,63 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131; y\u0131l i\u00e7inde yaln\u0131zca \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc kez %4,60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 19 May\u0131s zirvesi %4,69\u2019un hemen alt\u0131ndayd\u0131. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k break-even enflasyon beklentileri \u00fc\u00e7 seansta yakla\u015f\u0131k 3 bp y\u00fckselirken y\u0131l sonu Fed fon oran\u0131 beklentisi yakla\u015f\u0131k 3 bp artt\u0131; Asya-Pasifik getirileri 2\u20133 bp, Avrupa 1\u20132 bp y\u00fckseldi. Alt\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,5 art\u0131\u015fla 4.084 $\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra 4.142 $\u2019a yakla\u015farak test etti ve 4.120 $\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131na gev\u015fedi; g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f %4 s\u0131\u00e7rayarak 59,25 $ civar\u0131na y\u00fckseldi ve sonra 60 $\u2019\u0131n hemen alt\u0131nda duraklad\u0131. Eyl\u00fcl WTI, \u00f6nceki iki seansta yakla\u015f\u0131k %5,3\u2019l\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan %2,25 daha artarak k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 85 $\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; ard\u0131ndan 88,60 $\u2019a ula\u015f\u0131p g\u00fcn i\u00e7i yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,5 y\u00fckseldi. 84,55 $ seviyesi, 18 May\u0131s\u2019taki yakla\u015f\u0131k 95,30 $ zirvesinden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn %61,8 geri \u00e7ekilmesine i\u015faret ediyordu. Japonya, may\u0131sta JPY392 milyar olan d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n haziranda JPY407 milyara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; 2025\u2019in ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda ortalama yakla\u015f\u0131k JPY393 milyar olurken bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k JPY169 milyard\u0131. \u0130hracat y\u0131ll\u0131k %19,3, ithalat %25,4 artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu gerilimleri t\u0131rman\u0131rken WTI ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn 90 $ e\u015fi\u011fini hedeflemesiyle enerji t\u00fcrevleri piyasas\u0131nda y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fck arz kesintisi opsiyon piyasas\u0131na halihaz\u0131rda yans\u0131m\u0131\u015f durumda; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar daha fazla fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunurken petrolde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n hacmi artt\u0131. Tarihsel olarak jeopolitik risk primi petrol varil fiyat\u0131na neredeyse bir gecede 10\u201315 $ ekleyebilir; bu da Eyl\u00fcl vadeli WTI\u2019da uzun call spread stratejilerini cazip bir se\u00e7enek haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz taraf\u0131nda, 20 milyar $\u2019l\u0131k ithalat\u0131n \u00fczerinde sallanan %50 ABD tarifesi tehdidi nedeniyle Kanada dolar\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. ABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili getiri priminin Kanada\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 143 baz puana geni\u015flemesi (bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fcksek seviyesi), USD\/CAD al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde destekliyor. K\u0131sa vadeli yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hedefler i\u00e7in 1,4125\u20131,4155 diren\u00e7 band\u0131n\u0131n hedeflenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Japon yeni ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc zay\u0131f kalmaya devam ediyor; dolar JPY163,25 ile 40 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesi \u00e7evresinde seyrediyor. Tokyo\u2019dan tekrarlanan s\u00f6zl\u00fc m\u00fcdahalelere ra\u011fmen swap piyasas\u0131 ekim ay\u0131na kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %83 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu oran ge\u00e7en ay %60\u2019t\u0131. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fmadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli yen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda i\u015flem f\u0131rsatlar\u0131na bak\u0131lmal\u0131; b\u00fcy\u00fck opsiyon vadelerinin yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 JPY163,00 seviyesi yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.142 $\u2019a yakla\u015fan sert y\u00fckseli\u015fi, daha geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekte sistemik bir \u201cg\u00fcvenli limana ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201da i\u015faret ediyor. G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn 59 $ civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131yla de\u011ferli metaller kompleksi, k\u00fcresel tarife yap\u0131lar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f ve yap\u0131\u015fkan hizmet enflasyonu kaynakl\u0131 derin yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 endi\u015fesine sinyal veriyor. Devam eden momentumu de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in 4.050 $ destek seviyesine do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmelerde uzun alt\u0131n vadeli kontrat (futures) birikimini savunuyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n