Petrol piyasalar\u0131, Orta Do\u011fu ve Karadeniz genelinde artan arz kesintisi riskiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Bask\u0131 noktalar\u0131; K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019de Suudi ihracat rotalar\u0131, yeniden y\u00fckselen Basra K\u00f6rfezi gerilimi ve Kazakistan sevkiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n Rusya\u2019daki CPC terminali \u00fczerinden durmas\u0131 gibi ba\u015fl\u0131klara yay\u0131l\u0131yor. Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n acil g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri d\u0131\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda ate\u015fkes umutlar\u0131 zay\u0131flarken, ABD \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik 11\u2019inci gece \u00fcst \u00fcste sald\u0131r\u0131 d\u00fczenledi. Ayr\u0131 bir geli\u015fme olarak, Husilerin Suudi Arabistan\u2019a \u201cdeniz ablukas\u0131\u201d ilan etmesi sonras\u0131 armat\u00f6rler tanker hareketlerini yeniden d\u00fczenledi; gemiler Bab el-Mendeb Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ka\u00e7\u0131nmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
S\u00fcvey\u015f Kanal\u0131 \u00fczerinden yeniden rotalama, Asya var\u0131\u015fl\u0131 seferlere s\u00fcre ve maliyet ekleyerek yak\u0131n vadeli arz ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rabilir. Karadeniz\u2019de uzayan kesinti, Haziran\u2019da CPC terminalinden yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,7 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn y\u00fckleme yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Kazakistan\u2019da yukar\u0131 ak\u0131mda \u00fcretim k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu arka planda, Brent\u2019in varil ba\u015f\u0131na 91 dolar\u0131n biraz \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi, kesintilerin A\u011fustos\u2019a sarkmas\u0131 halinde potansiyel olarak \u201cde\u011ferinin alt\u0131nda\u201d olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor; rafine \u00fcr\u00fcn piyasas\u0131 ise yap\u0131sal olarak s\u0131k\u0131 kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Rahatlama; Orta Do\u011fu ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n normalle\u015ferek Orta Do\u011fu ve Asya\u2019da rafineri \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma oranlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmesine ve Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n Rus rafinerilerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131nda geri \u00e7ekilmeye ba\u011fl\u0131.<\/p>\n
A\u011fustos 2026\u2019ya yakla\u015f\u0131rken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Brent petrolde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir yukar\u0131 harekete haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. Brent h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 91 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, opsiyon piyasas\u0131 ba\u015fl\u0131ca k\u00fcresel transit koridorlar\u0131nda \u015fiddetlenen ve birbirini besleyen arz \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131 tam olarak fiyatlam\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, yaz\u0131n zirve talep d\u00f6nemlerinde benzer arz s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131 h\u0131zla 95 dolar e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz ve Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fen darbo\u011fazlardan faydalanmak i\u00e7in vadesiz (out-of-the-money) Brent al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmelidir. Bab el-Mendeb Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan g\u00fcnl\u00fck tanker ge\u00e7i\u015fleri son iki y\u0131lda %50\u2019den fazla d\u00fc\u015ferek Afrika \u00e7evresinden maliyetli sapmalar\u0131 zorunlu k\u0131ld\u0131. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fck sapma, sefer s\u00fcrelerine yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 ila 14 g\u00fcn ekleyerek denizde \u201ckilitli\u201d kalan petrol miktar\u0131n\u0131 yap\u0131sal olarak art\u0131r\u0131yor ve yak\u0131n vadeli fiziksel piyasay\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Buna ek olarak, Karadeniz\u2019deki CPC terminalinde s\u00fcren duru\u015f, g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1,7 milyon varile kadar Kazak ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kalmas\u0131 riskini beraberinde getiriyor. Burada y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc call spread stratejileri olduk\u00e7a cazip; zira herhangi bir uzayan ask\u0131ya alma, yukar\u0131 ak\u0131m \u00fcreticilerini kuyu kapatmaya zorlayarak k\u00fcresel d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck k\u00fck\u00fcrtl\u00fc (sweet) ham petrol arz\u0131n\u0131 keskin bi\u00e7imde azaltabilir. Bu \u00f6l\u00e7ekteki ge\u00e7mi\u015f kesintiler, Brent yak\u0131n vade vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda an\u0131nda birka\u00e7 dolarl\u0131k s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 tetiklemi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n Rus rafinaj kapasitesini bask\u0131lamaya devam etmesi nedeniyle, rafine \u00fcr\u00fcn crack spread\u2019lerinde\u2014\u00f6zellikle motorinde\u2014uzun pozisyon \u00f6neriyoruz. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n birincil rafinaj kapasitesinin baz\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde %14\u2019\u00fcne kadar\u0131 devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kald\u0131; bu durum k\u00fcresel orta distilat stoklar\u0131n\u0131 be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalamalar\u0131n belirgin bi\u00e7imde alt\u0131nda tutuyor. Rafinerilerin \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma oranlar\u0131n\u0131 kolayca art\u0131ramad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortamda, \u00fcr\u00fcn crack\u2019lerinin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ham petrole k\u0131yasla daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc performans g\u00f6stermesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n