{"id":51441,"date":"2026-07-22T10:30:41","date_gmt":"2026-07-22T10:30:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/risk-istahinin-artmasiyla-dolar-guclenirken-yen-ve-frank-geriliyor-usd-jpynin-165e-yaklastigi-goruluyor\/"},"modified":"2026-07-22T10:30:41","modified_gmt":"2026-07-22T10:30:41","slug":"risk-istahinin-artmasiyla-dolar-guclenirken-yen-ve-frank-geriliyor-usd-jpynin-165e-yaklastigi-goruluyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/risk-istahinin-artmasiyla-dolar-guclenirken-yen-ve-frank-geriliyor-usd-jpynin-165e-yaklastigi-goruluyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131yla dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken yen ve frank geriliyor; USD\/JPY\u2019nin 165\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Yen ve \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131, hisse piyasalar\u0131nda al\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n korunmas\u0131 ve karar al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel tahvil getirilerini yukar\u0131 itmesine ra\u011fmen s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmada yava\u015f bir patikaya i\u015faret etmesiyle bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam ediyor. Yaz aylar\u0131na \u00f6zg\u00fc s\u0131\u011f i\u015flem ko\u015fullar\u0131nda, enerji kaynakl\u0131 risklere kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedging) cazibesi ta\u015f\u0131yan daha y\u00fcksek getirili para birimleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm dolar\u0131 ve Norve\u00e7 kronunu destekledi. USD\/JPY, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemdeki bir resmi tatilde m\u00fcdahalede bulunmamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yukar\u0131 itildi; paritenin 31 Temmuz\u2019daki BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde 164\/165 band\u0131na do\u011fru kademeli t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131 (\u201cgrind\u201d) g\u00fcndemde. USD\/CHF de oda\u011fa girmi\u015f durumda; \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB), BoJ\u2019un Nisan\/May\u0131s d\u00f6neminde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi 70 milyar dolarl\u0131k FX m\u00fcdahalesini tekrarlamas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131k olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi nedeniyle 0,8150\/70 \u00fczeri k\u0131r\u0131lma takip ediliyor. Bu s\u0131rada DXY 100,35 ile 101,80 band\u0131nda tutundu.<\/p>\n

EUR\/USD, do\u011fal gaz\u0131n Mart zirvesi olan 60 EUR\/MWh seviyesini yeniden test etmesine ra\u011fmen diren\u00e7li kald\u0131. Faiz farklar\u0131, Fed\u2019e k\u0131yasla ECB\u2019de daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma beklentilerine i\u015faret ediyor; ancak yar\u0131nki ECB toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131ndaki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olabilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor. EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,1380\u2019e do\u011fru seyri izleniyor. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de, BoE\u2019nin \u00e7ekirdek hizmetler g\u00f6stergesinde hizmet enflasyonu %3,8\u2019den %3,6\u2019ya geriledi ve EUR\/GBP ge\u00e7en haftaki 0,8455 dip seviyeleri civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Macaristan Merkez Bankas\u0131 (NBH) 25 baz puan indirimle faizi %5,75\u2019e \u00e7ekti; A\u011fustos\u2019ta bir hamle daha ve Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de bir g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irme sinyali verdi. Piyasalar yakla\u015f\u0131k 40 baz puanl\u0131k gev\u015femeyi fiyatlamadan \u00e7\u0131karm\u0131\u015ft\u0131; ima edilen terminal faiz %4,75\u20135,00 civar\u0131nda, orta vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ise %4,00 seviyesinde. Zemin sakinle\u015firse EUR\/HUF\u2019da 360 alt\u0131 g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.<\/p>\n

USD\/JPY ve USD\/CHF i\u00e7in T\u00fcrev Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

Y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesiyle birlikte \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/JPY ve USD\/CHF\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentuma devam edilmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmay\u0131 t\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerine \u00f6neriyoruz. K\u00fcresel enerji g\u00f6stergeleri y\u00fcksek seyrini koruyor; Brent petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar civar\u0131nda seyrederken, Avrupa do\u011fal gaz\u0131 60 \u20ac\/MWh seviyesini test ediyor. BoJ\u2019un m\u00fcdahaleye isteksiz g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesiyle, 31 Temmuz\u2019daki politika toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde USD\/JPY\u2019nin 164\/165 band\u0131na do\u011fru kademeli y\u00fckseli\u015fini bekliyoruz; bu da k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

USD\/CHF i\u00e7in 0,8150\/70 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesinin \u00fczerinde k\u0131r\u0131lmaya d\u00f6n\u00fck stratejilerin de\u011ferlendirilebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. SNB\u2019nin g\u00fcvercin duru\u015funu koruyarak politika faizini k\u00fcresel emsallerinin alt\u0131nda tutmas\u0131, faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletiyor. USD\/CHF al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak veya y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk reversal kurmak, \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 yap\u0131sal olarak zay\u0131f kal\u0131rken g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc getiri potansiyeli sunabilir.<\/p>\n

EUR\/USD i\u00e7in Opsiyon Piyasas\u0131 G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n

EUR\/USD opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda, 1,1380\u2019e do\u011fru olas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc sarkmaya kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge) \u00f6neriyoruz. Avrupa do\u011fal gaz fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckselmi\u015f olsa da piyasa ECB\u2019nin \u015fahinli\u011finde zirvenin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde olabilir. Yaz d\u00f6nemindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck likidite ve Fed\u2019in g\u00f6rece daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc getiri avantaj\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, euroda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 elveri\u015fli bir risk-getiri profili sunuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ve yaz likiditesizli\u011fi FX\u2019te dengeleri bozuyor: Yen\/CHF zay\u0131f, dolar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. BoJ m\u00fcdahalesizli\u011fi USD\/JPY\u2019yi 164\/165\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131rken, USD\/CHF\u2019de 0,8150\/70 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 izleniyor. EUR\/USD diren\u00e7li, ECB \u00f6ncesi put hedge \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49975,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51441","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51441","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51441"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51441\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49975"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51441"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51441"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51441"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}