Sterlin, \u00e7o\u011fu kalemde beklentileri a\u015fan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 verisine ra\u011fmen geriledi. GBP\/USD, Londra\u2019da 1,3450\u2019nin hemen \u00fczerinden New York\u2019ta 1,3350\u2019nin hemen \u00fczerine indi; 1,3400\u2019\u00fcn hemen alt\u0131nda yak\u0131nsayan 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n (EMA) alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131. Seans\u0131n ilerleyen b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde 1,3380 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6ren parite, g\u00fcn\u00fcn en zay\u0131f maj\u00f6r\u00fc olurken d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc art arda d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcne ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131 ve temmuz ortas\u0131ndaki tepki y\u00fckseli\u015finin ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana ilk kez her iki uzun vadeli ortalaman\u0131n da alt\u0131nda kapan\u0131\u015fa y\u00f6neldi. 1,3150 b\u00f6lgesinden gelen bu tepki y\u00fckseli\u015finin \u00fc\u00e7te birinden fazlas\u0131 \u015fimdiden geri verilmi\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s\u2019a kadar olan \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde istihdam 147 bin artarak \u00f6nceki 100 binin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 (claimant count) ise haziranda 28,3 binlik konsens\u00fcse kar\u015f\u0131 6,7 bin artt\u0131 ve i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %5 beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131 %4,9\u2019a geriledi. \u0130kramiyeler dahil ortalama kazan\u00e7 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %4,5 beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131 %4,3\u2019e yava\u015flayarak, haziranda faizi %3,75\u2019te sabit tutan ve iki \u00fcyenin %4,00 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oy verdi\u011fi BoE\u2019nin faiz patikas\u0131na oda\u011f\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. G\u00f6zler 06:00 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak T\u00dcFE\u2019ye \u00e7evrildi; man\u015fet enflasyonun %2,8\u2019den y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,7\u2019ye, \u00e7ekirde\u011fin %2,5\u2019e ve ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n %0,1\u2019e gelmesi bekleniyor. Daha sonra perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n %1,2\u2019den ayl\u0131k %-0,2\u2019ye gerilemesi; hizmet PMI\u2019\u0131n 48,8, bile\u015fik PMI\u2019\u0131n 49,3 ve g\u00fcven endeksinin -21 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Diren\u00e7 1,3400\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda ve 1,3450 civar\u0131nda, ard\u0131ndan 1,3550\u2019de; destek 1,3350\u2019nin \u00fczerinde, 1,3300\u2019de ve 1,3150\u2019de.<\/p>\n
GBP\/USD\u2019nin kritik 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na k\u0131rmas\u0131yla birlikte, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na Sterlin\u2019de ilave a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n i\u00e7in agresif pozisyonlanmay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Mevcut spot seviye 1,3380 civar\u0131ndayken, 1,3300 hedefli ve yaz d\u00f6nemi deste\u011fi olan 1,3150\u2019ye uzanan k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131 cazip bir risk-getiri profili sunuyor. Tarihsel piyasa verileri, paritenin yak\u0131nsayan uzun vadeli EMA\u2019lar\u0131n alt\u0131na k\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda genellikle sonraki \u00fc\u00e7 haftada ortalama %2,5\u2019lik kal\u0131c\u0131 bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 trendi tetikledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere\u2019de \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n %4,3\u2019e so\u011fumas\u0131 ve \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun gerilemesinin beklenmesiyle, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 duru\u015funu koruma bask\u0131s\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde azal\u0131yor. Yakla\u015fan enflasyon verisinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in ay\u0131 (bear) put spread stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; zira bu veri, Sterlin\u2019in kalan getiri primini h\u0131zla a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131rabilir. \u00d6nceki gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fclerinde bu nitelikte zay\u0131f T\u00dcFE ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeleri, tek bir i\u015flem seans\u0131nda ortalama 100 piplik Sterlin sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyen h\u0131zl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmelere yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Downing Street\u2019teki siyasi bo\u015flu\u011fu ve g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ekmeye devam eden olduk\u00e7a diren\u00e7li ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 da hesaba katmak gerekiyor. Yurti\u00e7i siyasi belirsizlik ile k\u00fcresel jeopolitik gerilimin bu bile\u015fimi, k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015f denemelerini 1,3400 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesi yak\u0131n\u0131nda reddedilmeye olduk\u00e7a a\u00e7\u0131k hale getiriyor. \u0130\u015flem e\u011filimimizi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc tutarak, bu temel uyumsuzluktan yararlan\u0131p paritedeki geri \u00e7ekilmeyi temmuz ay\u0131 taban\u0131na do\u011fru de\u011ferlendirebiliriz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n