USD\/KRW, haziran zirvesi olan 1.561 civar\u0131n\u0131 iki kez a\u015fmay\u0131 ba\u015faramad\u0131 ve bu reddedilme, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamaya do\u011fru daha sert bir geri \u00e7ekilmeyi tetikledi. Parite \u015fimdi 200-GHO\u2019yu test ediyor; bu seviye daha \u00f6nce \u015fubat ve may\u0131s aylar\u0131ndaki geri \u00e7ekilmelerde destek olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. <\/p>\n
A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc senaryoda odak, 1.464\/1.461 b\u00f6lgesindeki \u00e7ok ayl\u0131 y\u00fckselen trend \u00e7izgisine kay\u0131yor. Bu b\u00f6lgeden gelebilecek bir tepki al\u0131m\u0131, ilk etapta 1.491 civar\u0131ndaki son pivot zirvede diren\u00e7le kar\u015f\u0131la\u015facakt\u0131r; parite bu seviyenin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece, genel e\u011filim daha uzun soluklu bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften yana kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/KRW paritesini, 1.561\u2019deki haziran zirvesinin a\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan kritik 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamay\u0131 test etmesi nedeniyle yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz. Bu \u201c\u00e7ifte tepe\u201d ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc d\u00fczeltmeyi h\u0131zland\u0131rarak k\u0131sa vadede G\u00fcney Kore wonunu g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. \u015eubat ve may\u0131s aylar\u0131ndaki \u00f6nceki geri \u00e7ekilmeler bu ortalamadan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek buldu\u011fundan, s\u00f6z konusu seviye bo\u011falar ve ay\u0131lar i\u00e7in ana m\u00fccadele alan\u0131 olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu teknik bask\u0131, son ekonomik verilerle de uyumlu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Veriler, G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin ihracat dinami\u011finin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ederken, yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sevkiyatlarda %8,5\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f raporland\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca Kore Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n politika faizini %3,50\u2019de sabit tutma karar\u0131 da yerel para birimine temel tarafta destek sa\u011flad\u0131. Bu istikrarl\u0131 i\u00e7 ko\u015fullar\u0131n, \u015fimdilik dolar taraf\u0131nda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, \u00e7ok ayl\u0131 y\u00fckselen trend \u00e7izgisinin bulundu\u011fu 1.464-1.461 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki bir sonraki kritik destek k\u00fcmesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. K\u0131sa vadeli teknik tepkiyi yakalamak amac\u0131yla, bu b\u00f6lgeye yak\u0131n seviyelerde uzun USD pozisyonu olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in limit emirlerin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Ancak olas\u0131 bir toparlanman\u0131n 1.491\u2019deki pivot zirve civar\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rlanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. <\/p>\n
Parite 1.491\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kamazsa, USD\/KRW put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131 gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc stratejilere ge\u00e7ilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. 1.461 destek \u00e7izgisinin net bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, daha geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekte bir trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc teyit ederek daha derin bir gerilemenin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k bu b\u00f6lgede ilerlerken, s\u0131k\u0131 stop-loss kullan\u0131m\u0131yla riskin kontrol alt\u0131nda tutulmas\u0131 kritik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n