WTI, ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00fcregelen arz kesintisi riskinin fiyatlanmas\u0131yla Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 84,40 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve g\u00fcn\u00fc %2,6 art\u0131da ge\u00e7irdi. ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 10\u2019uncu g\u00fcn\u00fcne uzarken, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n IRGC\u2019si taraf\u0131ndan misilleme ad\u0131mlar\u0131 at\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberler ve deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 rotalar\u0131na ili\u015fkin yeni endi\u015feler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Yemen\u2019de \u0130ran destekli Ensar Allah\u2019\u0131n da K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019de Suudi Arabistan\u2019a y\u00f6nelik bir deniz ambargosu ilan etmesi, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ve Bab el-Mendeb Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki potansiyel k\u0131s\u0131tlamalara dikkati canl\u0131 tutarken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar seans\u0131n ilerleyen saatlerinde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak haftal\u0131k API ham petrol stok raporunu bekledi.<\/p>\n
Bankalar\u0131n de\u011ferlendirmeleri, y\u00fckselen enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon \u00fczerindeki etkisine ve S\u00fcvey\u015f Kanal\u0131 veya \u00dcmit Burnu \u00fczerinden rotalar\u0131n de\u011fi\u015ftirilmesinin gerekmesi halinde ta\u015f\u0131ma maliyetlerine odakland\u0131. Bir notta Brent 88,45 dolar\/varil olarak aktar\u0131l\u0131rken, ayr\u0131 bir kapan\u0131\u015f 89,22 dolar\/varil seviyesinde verildi; ABD benzininin ise galon ba\u015f\u0131na 4 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde oldu\u011fu bildirildi. OCBC, Brent\u2019in en son nisan ay\u0131 sonlar\u0131nda 126 dolar\/varil seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, bunun mevcut seviyelerin yakla\u015f\u0131k %40 \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funu belirterek, daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir t\u0131rmanman\u0131n petrol\u00fc yeniden 100 dolar\/varilin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol\u00fcn 84,40 dolar civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fi ve Brent\u2019in 89 dolara yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu ortamda, t\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. G\u00fcnl\u00fck k\u00fcresel petrol s\u0131v\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7ti\u011fi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, olas\u0131 uzun s\u00fcreli bir kapanma fiyatlar\u0131 h\u0131zla yukar\u0131 itebilir. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalardan yararlanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli WTI al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n tercih edilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanacak API stok raporu ve yar\u0131nki EIA verisi, k\u0131sa vadeli i\u015flem f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 sunuyor; zira bu iki rapor tarihsel olarak vakalar\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %75\u2019inde birbirine %1 i\u00e7inde yak\u0131ns\u0131yor. ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131nda beklenmedik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler (drawdown) yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli; b\u00f6yle bir tablo, mevcut jeopolitik primi destekleyen ek bir temel yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratacakt\u0131r. Bu stok a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n tetikleyebilece\u011fi sert fiyat hareketlerinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in straddle veya strangle opsiyon stratejileri bu noktada olduk\u00e7a etkili olabilir.<\/p>\n
Sevkiyat rotalar\u0131n\u0131n K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019den \u00dcmit Burnu\u2019na y\u00f6nelmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi halinde, transit s\u00fcreleri 10 ila 14 g\u00fcn uzayacak ve k\u00fcresel navlun oranlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekecektir. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f krizlerde benzer aksakl\u0131klar, deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 navlun endekslerinin birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde %100\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Rafine \u00fcr\u00fcn marjlar\u0131 genellikle sevkiyat darbo\u011fazlar\u0131nda ilk geni\u015fleyen kalem oldu\u011fundan, benzin vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun (long) pozisyonlar\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca Brent\u2019in bu y\u0131l nisan ay\u0131nda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 126 dolara ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 unutulmamal\u0131; bu, jeopolitik \u015foklar\u0131n enerji piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 yeniden fiyatlayabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Suudi ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 gemilere y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n sertle\u015fmesi halinde 100 dolar e\u015fi\u011fine do\u011fru bir hareketin olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131 korunma i\u00e7in, Eyl\u00fcl vadeli WTI \u00fczerinde bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019lerinin (bull call spread) kademeli bi\u00e7imde olu\u015fturulmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n