Sterlin, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimin yeniden t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na talebin geri d\u00f6nmesi \u00fczerine zay\u0131flad\u0131. GBP\/USD, 1,3455\u2019i g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra %0,48 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 1,3371\u2019e gerilerken, ABD Dolar Endeksi %0,14 art\u0131\u015fla 101,14\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Haberlerde Washington\u2019un daha uzun bir ate\u015fkes ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda k\u0131smi seyr\u00fcsefer aray\u0131\u015f\u0131nda oldu\u011fu, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ise 10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ate\u015fkes fikrini g\u00fcndeme getirdi\u011fi belirtildi; Axios ayr\u0131ca 10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ate\u015fkesten daha geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 askeri harek\u00e2ta kadar uzanan se\u00e7eneklerin g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irildi\u011fini aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD faizleri y\u00fckseldi; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili faizi \u00fc\u00e7 baz puan artarak %4,624\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve ADP\u2019nin d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k ortalama istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi \u00f6nceki revize 19,25 bin seviyesine kar\u015f\u0131 16,5 bin olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Prime Terminal verilerine g\u00f6re Fed\u2019in gelecek hafta faizi de\u011fi\u015ftirmeme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %78; 29 Temmuz karar\u0131 ve haftal\u0131k ilk i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in z\u0131mni olas\u0131l\u0131k %68\u2019e yak\u0131n. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta Andy Burnham\u2019\u0131n Ba\u015fbakan ilan edilmesinin ard\u0131ndan Rachel Reeves\u2019in yerine John Healey Maliye Bakan\u0131 (Chancellor) olarak atand\u0131; ayr\u0131ca g\u00f6zler \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc enflasyon verisine \u00e7evrildi. Teknik tarafta 1,3374 civar\u0131nda k\u00fcmelenen hareketli ortalamalar, 1,3478 ve 1,3511 diren\u00e7leri ve 49 seviyesinde RSI \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
GBP\/USD paritesinde ek a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskine kar\u015f\u0131, \u00f6zellikle spot kurun 1,3374\u2019teki kritik 50, 100 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131yla, k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131 kullanarak pozisyonlanmal\u0131y\u0131z. G\u00f6rece G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 49 gibi zay\u0131f bir seviyedeyken, piyasa momentumu g\u00fcvenli liman olarak ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 net bi\u00e7imde destekliyor. Ani dalgalanmalara kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, yakla\u015fan 29 Temmuz Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan sonra vadeye sahip, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasa d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) GBP\/USD put opsiyonlar\u0131 almak olduk\u00e7a etkili bir strateji g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilim, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131nda askeri t\u0131rmanma endi\u015feleriyle ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY) h\u0131zla 101,14 seviyesine do\u011fru itiyor. Tarihsel olarak, petrol zengini bu b\u00f6lgede uzayan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar dolar\u0131 destekledi; 2019 sonundaki jeopolitik alevlenmeler s\u0131ras\u0131nda DXY\u2019\u0131n bir ayda %2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselmesine benzer \u015fekilde. N\u00fckleer tesislere olas\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131 tehdidi yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 tedirgin ederken, \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d y\u00f6nl\u00fc bu sermaye ak\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in DXY \u00fczerinde uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131 kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizinin %4,624\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi, tahvil piyasas\u0131n\u0131n daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 aktif bi\u00e7imde fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; piyasa verileri Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %68 olarak i\u015faret ediyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 bu de\u011fi\u015fimden, tahvil vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon alarak veya y\u00fckselen getirilere kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri korumak i\u00e7in faiz tavan\u0131 (interest rate cap) sat\u0131n alarak faydalanabilir. Gelecek hafta i\u00e7in faiz pas\u0131 %78 oran\u0131nda fiyatlanm\u0131\u015fken, Fed\u2019den beklenmedik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u015fahin mesajlar gelmesi ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda sert ve h\u0131zl\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 hareketi tetikleyecektir.<\/p>\n
Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k taraf\u0131nda ise Ba\u015fbakan Andy Burnham\u2019\u0131n John Healey\u2019i Hazine\/Maliye Bakan\u0131 olarak ani \u015fekilde atamas\u0131, hesaba katmam\u0131z gereken bir maliye politikas\u0131 belirsizli\u011fi yarat\u0131yor. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta liderlik ge\u00e7i\u015fleri, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n b\u00fct\u00e7e kurallar\u0131n\u0131n gelece\u011fini sorgulamas\u0131yla, tarihsel olarak Sterlin\u2019in z\u0131mni volatilitesinde s\u0131kl\u0131kla %1,5\u2013%3 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda s\u0131\u00e7ramalara yol a\u00e7t\u0131. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc enflasyon verisi \u00f6ncesinde, y\u00f6n\u00fc tahmin etmek zorunda kalmadan keskin ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez kur hareketlerinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in GBP\/USD \u00fczerinde straddle veya strangle stratejileriyle i\u015flem yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n