EUR\/USD Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc, ABD-\u0130ran sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ortamda ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle geriledi ve pariteyi yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,1405 seviyesinde bir haftan\u0131n diplerine yak\u0131n b\u0131rakt\u0131. Euro B\u00f6lgesi verileri, Temmuz ZEW Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm endeksinin 9,5\u2019ten 23,4\u2019e y\u00fckselerek 11,2\u2019lik beklentiyi a\u015fmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen hareketi tersine \u00e7evirmeye yetmedi; Almanya g\u00f6stergesi de 10,5\u2019ten 26,3\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karak 18\u2019lik konsens\u00fcs\u00fcn \u00fczerinde geldi.<\/p>\n
ABD ordusu \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 art arda onuncu gece sald\u0131r\u0131 d\u00fczenlerken, Tahran da b\u00f6lge genelinde ABD\u2019ye ait askeri varl\u0131klar\u0131 hedef ald\u0131; bu durum g\u00fcvenli liman talebini canl\u0131 tutarak Dolar\u2019\u0131 destekledi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 101,15 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, \u00fcst \u00fcste d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcnde de y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Arabulucular, ge\u00e7en ayki ge\u00e7ici ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n yeniden canland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na ba\u011flanan 10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir ate\u015fkes \u00f6nerdi; ancak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan sevkiyatlarda ya\u015fanan aksama Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekerek enflasyon endi\u015felerini yeniden alevlendirdi. Bu arka planda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, ECB ve Fed\u2019in \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre daha s\u0131k\u0131\u201d duru\u015funu koruyaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve yakla\u015fan toplant\u0131larda faizleri sabit b\u0131rakaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131; buna kar\u015f\u0131n fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 halinde ek art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 olas\u0131l\u0131k dahilinde oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik gerilimlerin t\u0131rmand\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, artan volatiliteye kar\u015f\u0131 Brent petrolde uzun vadeli (long-dated) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) edinerek pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 korumalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 21 milyon varil petrol ge\u00e7ti\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, uzayan askeri aksamalar\u0131n ciddi bir arz \u015fokunu kolayl\u0131kla tetikleyebilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131 daha uzun s\u00fcre k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 faiz politikas\u0131na zorlayabilmesi nedeniyle, bu enflasyon riskine kar\u015f\u0131 \u015fimdiden korunma (hedge) yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc merkez bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,1380\u20131,1480 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k bir konsolidasyon band\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Paritenin G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) \u015fu anda n\u00f6tr 50 e\u015fi\u011finin hemen alt\u0131nda dengelenmesi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n iron condor gibi bant i\u00e7i stratejileri de\u011ferlendirmesi uygun olabilir. Diplomatik bir k\u0131r\u0131lma ya\u015fanmad\u0131k\u00e7a paritenin 1,1516\u2019daki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Faiz yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, Avrupa gecelik endeks swaplar\u0131nda (OIS) \u015fahin yeniden fiyatlama dikkat \u00e7ekici bir f\u0131rsat sunuyor. Mevcut fiyatlamalar Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 22 baz puanl\u0131k bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya ve Aral\u0131k\u2019a kadar k\u00fcm\u00fclatif 43 baz puana i\u015faret ediyor; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Euro B\u00f6lgesi ekonomik g\u00fcveninin 23,4 ile beklentileri a\u015fmas\u0131yla da destekleniyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin beklenenden diren\u00e7li bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sergiledi\u011fi ortamda, geni\u015fleyen getiri fark\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan ABD Dolar Endeksi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentum sergileyerek \u00fcst \u00fcste d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcnl\u00fck kazan\u00e7la 101,15 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Tarihsel veriler, aktif askeri \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma d\u00f6nemlerinde k\u00fcresel likiditenin s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Dolar\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman giri\u015flerinden sistematik bi\u00e7imde faydaland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. \u00d6nerilen 10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ate\u015fkes hen\u00fcz imzalanmam\u0131\u015fken, bu savunmac\u0131 momentumu de\u011ferlendirmek amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli Dolar al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131nda (call) al\u0131m y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n