EUR\/GBP, Andy Burnham\u2019\u0131n Ba\u015fbakan olarak atanmas\u0131 ve John Healey\u2019in \u201ckurun \u015fans\u00f6lyesi\u201d olarak g\u00f6revlendirilmesinin ard\u0131ndan Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019\u0131n mali g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ili\u015fkin \u015f\u00fcphelerin yeniden g\u00fcndeme gelmesiyle Sterlin\u2019in zay\u0131flamas\u0131 sonucu sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. \u00c7apraz kur, yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda 0,8527 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle birlikte bir y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine gerilemi\u015fti. Mali kurallar dahilinde \u201cher t\u00fcrl\u00fc esnekli\u011fin\u201d kullan\u0131labilece\u011fine dair yorumlar, gilt piyasas\u0131nda taze sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendirildi.<\/p>\n
Euro, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelen ZEW verilerinden destek buldu: Euro B\u00f6lgesi Ekonomik G\u00fcven Endeksi temmuzda 23,4\u2019e y\u00fckselerek hazirandaki 9,5 seviyesinden toparland\u0131 ve 11,2\u2019lik beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131; Almanya endeksi ise 10,5\u2019ten 26,3\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karak 18\u2019lik beklentinin \u00fczerinde geldi. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta istihdam, may\u0131sa kadarki \u00fc\u00e7 ayda \u00f6nceki 100 binlik art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 147 bin artt\u0131; ILO \u0130\u015fsizlik Oran\u0131 da %5,0 beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k %4,9\u2019da sabit kald\u0131. Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 \u015fimdi \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k T\u00dcFE ve \u00dcFE verilerine \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda EUR\/GBP paritesinde kademeli bir toparlanmaya pozisyonlanmas\u0131 ve 0,8700 seviyesini hedeflemesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Parite h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 0,8527 ile bir y\u0131ll\u0131k dip seviyesine yak\u0131n seyrederken, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmenin g\u00fc\u00e7 kaybetti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ani a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere kar\u015f\u0131 korunurken bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in EUR\/GBP al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 veya bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019lerinin (bull call spread) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz, Ba\u015fbakan Andy Burnham liderli\u011findeki siyasi ge\u00e7i\u015fin ard\u0131ndan Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta artan mali endi\u015felerle destekleniyor. Mali kurallar \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde \u201cesneklik\u201d kullan\u0131laca\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, tahvil yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 \u015fimdiden tedirgin etti ve Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k gilt getirisini %4,3\u2019e do\u011fru ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Bu mali belirsizli\u011fin Sterlin \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi ve para biriminin ilave de\u011fer kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan Euro B\u00f6lgesi verileri, Euro i\u00e7in sa\u011flam bir taban olu\u015fturan \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 bir dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. Temmuz ZEW Ekonomik G\u00fcven verisi hazirandaki 9,5\u2019ten 23,4\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7rarken, Almanya g\u00fcven endeksi de beklentileri rahatl\u0131kla a\u015farak 26,3\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme\/g\u00fcven ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, EUR\/GBP sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 daha az cazip k\u0131larken, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlanma tercihimizle de uyumlu.<\/p>\n
Yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak kritik Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k enflasyon verisi \u00f6ncesinde k\u0131sa vadeli volatiliteye de haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor. Tarihsel olarak, siyasi de\u011fi\u015fim d\u00f6nemlerinde enflasyonda beklenmedik gerilemeler Sterlin\u2019de sert sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 tetikleyebildi. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, bu \u00f6nemli veri a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 etraf\u0131ndaki olas\u0131 fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli straddle stratejilerini de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n