{"id":51372,"date":"2026-07-21T17:00:43","date_gmt":"2026-07-21T17:00:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/sterlin-burnhamin-mali-taahhudunun-uzun-vadeli-gilts-satisini-durduramamasiyla-toparlandi\/"},"modified":"2026-07-21T17:00:43","modified_gmt":"2026-07-21T17:00:43","slug":"sterlin-burnhamin-mali-taahhudunun-uzun-vadeli-gilts-satisini-durduramamasiyla-toparlandi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/sterlin-burnhamin-mali-taahhudunun-uzun-vadeli-gilts-satisini-durduramamasiyla-toparlandi\/","title":{"rendered":"Sterlin, Burnham\u2019\u0131n Mali Taahh\u00fcd\u00fcn\u00fcn Uzun Vadeli Gilts Sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 Durduramamas\u0131yla Toparland\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sterlin, Andy Burnham\u2019\u0131n Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 olarak resmen atanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00f6r\u00fclen kay\u0131plar\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 telafi ederken, gilt sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 daha kal\u0131c\u0131 oldu. Uzun vadeli tahviller bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam etti; Burnham\u2019\u0131n h\u00fck\u00fcmetin mevcut mali kurallara ba\u011fl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak bu kurallar i\u00e7indeki esnekli\u011fi kullanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri h\u00e2l\u00e2 yakla\u015f\u0131k 7 baz puan daha y\u00fcksek seviyede. Piyasa ayr\u0131ca erken bir hayat pahal\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 hamlesini ve bunun Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019\u0131n mali patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin daha geni\u015f etkilerini de fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Burnham, hanehalk\u0131 elektri\u011finde KDV\u2019nin kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131yla (oran\u0131n %5\u2019ten %0\u2019a indirilmesi) yurt i\u00e7i enerji faturalar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeyi ama\u00e7layan 850 milyon sterlinlik bir paket a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; h\u00fck\u00fcmet bunun enflasyonu 0,1 puan azaltmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. KDV de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi, dijital kimlik (digital ID) program\u0131n\u0131n iptal edilmesiyle finanse edilecek; ilave \u00f6nlemler ise de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131ran bir di\u011fer unsur da, eski Savunma Bakan\u0131 John Healey\u2019nin s\u00fcrpriz \u015fekilde Maliye Bakan\u0131 (Chancellor) olarak se\u00e7ilmesi oldu. Ayr\u0131ca, daha \u00f6nce harcama planlar\u0131 nedeniyle istifa eden Healey\u2019nin ard\u0131ndan savunma harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n 2030\u2019a kadar GSYH\u2019nin %3\u2019\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik tart\u0131\u015fmalar g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n

Gilt Getirilerindeki De\u011fi\u015fimler ve Sterlin Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/h3>\n

Yeni liderli\u011fin g\u00f6reve gelmesinin ard\u0131ndan Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019\u0131n mali g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde belirgin de\u011fi\u015fimler g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu da uzun vadeli giltlerde an\u0131nda bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131. 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k gilt getirisinin son d\u00f6nemde 7 baz puan y\u00fckselerek 4,65% civar\u0131nda seyretmesiyle, sabit getirili t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Piyasa bu yeni mali belirsizli\u011fe uyum sa\u011flarken, gilt vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa (short) pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 veya uzun vadeli Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k tahvilleri \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n

Sterlin ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 1,2900 seviyesine do\u011fru m\u00fctevaz\u0131 bir toparlanma g\u00f6stermi\u015f olsa da, para birimi yakla\u015fan politika duyurular\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a hassas kalmaya devam ediyor. K\u0131sa vadeli toparlanma ile uzun vadeli mali \u015f\u00fcphelerin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu \u00e7ift y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 nedeniyle, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlara sterlinde uzun straddle opsiyon stratejisini \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu strateji, piyasan\u0131n yeni Maliye Bakan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klayaca\u011f\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7e detaylar\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7te her iki y\u00f6ne sert hareketlerden faydalanmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n

KDV \u0130ndiriminin ve Artan Savunma Harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n Etkisi<\/h3>\n

Yeni a\u00e7\u0131klanan 850 milyon sterlinlik enerji KDV indiriminin, man\u015fet enflasyondan 0,1 y\u00fczde puan silmesi bekleniyor; enflasyon h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n %2,0 hedefi civar\u0131nda. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar, T\u00dcFE\u2019de ge\u00e7ici bir gerileme beklentisiyle k\u0131sa vadeli enflasyon swaplar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon alarak bundan faydalanabilir. Ancak savunma harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n orta vadede GSYH\u2019nin %3\u2019\u00fcne do\u011fru y\u00fckselmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, bu dezenflasyonist etkileri kolayl\u0131kla dengeleyebilece\u011fi i\u00e7in temkinli olunmal\u0131.<\/p>\n

H\u0131zl\u0131 savunma harcamas\u0131 art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 savunmas\u0131yla bilinen bir ismin Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019na beklenmedik atanmas\u0131, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k bor\u00e7lanma ara\u00e7lar\u0131na yap\u0131sal bir risk primi ekliyor. Tarihsel veriler, kamu harcamalar\u0131nda ani art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n genellikle mali a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 geni\u015fletti\u011fini ve getirileri yukar\u0131 itti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in, faiz swaplar\u0131 \u00fczerinden daha dik bir getiri e\u011frisine (steepener) pozisyon alman\u0131n en ak\u0131ll\u0131 hamle oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Burnham s\u00fcrprizi piyasay\u0131 sallad\u0131: Sterlin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 toparlan\u0131rken gilt sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131. 850 milyon sterlinlik enerji KDV indirimi enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrse de, Healey\u2019in Maliye\u2019ye geli\u015fi ve savunma harcamas\u0131 plan\u0131 getirileri yukar\u0131 itiyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50045,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51372","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51372","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51372"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51372\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50045"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51372"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51372"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51372"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}