{"id":51366,"date":"2026-07-21T15:00:53","date_gmt":"2026-07-21T15:00:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/sterlin-ingiltere-tufe-verisi-oncesinde-gilt-piyasasindaki-baski-surerken-200-gunluk-ortalamasinin-uzerinde-tutunuyor\/"},"modified":"2026-07-21T15:00:53","modified_gmt":"2026-07-21T15:00:53","slug":"sterlin-ingiltere-tufe-verisi-oncesinde-gilt-piyasasindaki-baski-surerken-200-gunluk-ortalamasinin-uzerinde-tutunuyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/sterlin-ingiltere-tufe-verisi-oncesinde-gilt-piyasasindaki-baski-surerken-200-gunluk-ortalamasinin-uzerinde-tutunuyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Sterlin, \u0130ngiltere T\u00dcFE Verisi \u00d6ncesinde Gilt Piyasas\u0131ndaki Bask\u0131 S\u00fcrerken 200 G\u00fcnl\u00fck Ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00dczerinde Tutunuyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sterlin, dip al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n deste\u011fiyle Gilt\u2019lerdeki bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine ra\u011fmen GBP\/USD\u2019yi 1,3403 civar\u0131ndaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutuyor. Parite 1,3400\u20131,3500 band\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken EUR\/GBP\u2019deki toparlanma da s\u0131n\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015f durumda. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca Maliye Bakan\u0131 (Chancellor) John Healey\u2019nin atanmas\u0131n\u0131 ve Haziran ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin bir sonraki Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k T\u00dcFE verisini fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Tahminler, man\u015fet enflasyonun y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,8\u2019den %2,7\u2019ye gerileyece\u011fine i\u015faret ederken, hizmet enflasyonunun %3,7\u2019den %3,6\u2019ya d\u00fc\u015fmesi; \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun ise %2,6 ile de\u011fi\u015fmemesi bekleniyor. \u00d6zel sekt\u00f6r \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,9\u2019a do\u011fru hafif\u00e7e geriledi\u011fi belirtiliyor. Gilt\u2013Bund spreadi, Eyl\u00fcl 2022 ile ili\u015fkilendirilen seviyelere yak\u0131n bi\u00e7imde yakla\u015f\u0131k 140 bp\u2019de; ancak 2024 sonundaki 170 bp\u2019nin biraz \u00fczerindeki seviyeden daralm\u0131\u015f durumda. Kamu bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bor\u00e7 faizleri nedeniyle May\u0131s\u2019tan Haziran\u2019a 4 milyar sterlin geriledi; buna kar\u015f\u0131n Nisan\u2013Haziran d\u00f6nemi a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, harcamalar\u0131n planlar\u0131 3,6 milyar sterlin a\u015fmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen tahsilatlar\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k %7,2 artmas\u0131yla birlikte, OBR tahmininin 2,7 milyar sterlin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Sterlin \u0130\u00e7in Teknik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ve Enflasyon E\u011filimleri<\/h3>\n

GBP\/USD paritesini, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutunmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi nedeniyle yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor; bu durum dipten al\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Son Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k enflasyon verileri, man\u015fet T\u00dcFE\u2019nin 2026 ortalar\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,0 seviyesine gev\u015fedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken Sterlin\u2019in dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da destekliyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u00f6zellikle paritenin mevcut band\u0131n \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131 test etti\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde yak\u0131n vadede al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na (call) veya uzun Sterlin pozisyonlar\u0131na odaklan\u0131labilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Gilt Piyasas\u0131, Getiri Farklar\u0131 ve Opsiyon Pozisyonlamas\u0131<\/h3>\n

Faiz piyasalar\u0131nda da Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k Gilt\u2019leri bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Gilt getirileri son haftalarda %4,1 civar\u0131nda seyrediyor. Gilt\u2019lerin Alman Bund\u2019lar\u0131na g\u00f6re primi tarihsel olarak y\u00fcksek kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; bu durum, Maliye Bakan\u0131 John Healey y\u00f6netiminde devam eden mali ihtiyat\u0131n yans\u0131mas\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Yakla\u015fan makro verilerin \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonda kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret etmesi halinde, getiri e\u011frisi dikle\u015fmesi (steepener) stratejileri veya Gilt vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa (short) pozisyonlar g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.<\/p>\n

Opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda, GBP \u00e7aprazlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (implied volatility) bir ayl\u0131k vadelerde yakla\u015f\u0131k %6,5 ile g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 izleniyor. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131k ortam\u0131, mali risklerin sonbahar b\u00fct\u00e7esi \u00f6ncesinde yeniden alevlenmesi ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 GBP\/USD\u2019de koruyucu sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rece ucuz hale getiriyor. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck primlerden faydalanarak yap\u0131lacak hedge, kamu harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden tahminleri a\u015fmas\u0131 halinde olas\u0131 ani a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sterlin\u2019de kritik test: GBP\/USD 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama \u00fcst\u00fcnde 1,3400\u20131,3500 band\u0131nda. Piyasa John Healey ve Haziran T\u00dcFE\u2019yi bekliyor; Gilt\/Bund spreadi y\u00fcksek, oynakl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck\u2014hedge f\u0131rsat\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49989,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51366","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51366","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51366"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51366\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49989"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51366"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51366"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51366"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}