Euro, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi; ge\u00e7en haftaki 1,1480 zirvesinden sonra \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck geri \u00e7ekilmede 1,1400 seviyesinde destek bulmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yeniden 1,1420\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nden gelen g\u00fcven verileri ortak para birimine destek verirken, \u0130ran\u2019da ate\u015fkese y\u00f6nelik diplomatik \u00e7abalara dair haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 dolar\u0131 bask\u0131lad\u0131. ZEW Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc, Almanya\u2019da kurumsal yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 g\u00fcveninin temmuzda hazirandaki 10,5\u2019ten 26,3\u2019e y\u00fckseldi\u011fini, Euro B\u00f6lgesi g\u00f6stergesinin ise 9,5\u2019ten 23,4\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Her iki veri de s\u0131ras\u0131yla 18 ve 11,2 olan beklentileri a\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Mevcut ko\u015fullar bile\u015feni iyile\u015fmesine ra\u011fmen derin negatif b\u00f6lgede kald\u0131; hazirandaki -81\u2019den -77,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselerek -77,8 beklentisinin de hafif \u00fczerinde geldi ve tarihsel dip seviyelere yak\u0131n seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda hafta sonu ya\u015fanan gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan jeopolitik riskler g\u00fcndemin \u00fcst s\u0131ralar\u0131nda kalmaya devam etti; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n fiilen kapand\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilirken, \u0130ran destekli Husiler K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019de Suudi Arabistan\u2019a ait gemilere y\u00f6nelik abluka ilan etti. Bu geli\u015fmeler, ham petrol arz\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015feleri art\u0131rd\u0131. Avrupa\u2019da dikkatler per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc ECB karar\u0131na \u00e7evrilirken, ABD\u2019de veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak S&P Global PMI\u2019lar \u00f6ncesinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD paritesinin 1,1420 civar\u0131nda dengelenmesiyle, t\u00fcrev i\u015flemcileri i\u00e7in volatiliteyi de\u011ferlendirmeye y\u00f6nelik \u00f6nemli bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. G\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyon varil petrol\u00fcn\u2014k\u00fcresel t\u00fcketimin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin\u2014ge\u00e7i\u015fine arac\u0131l\u0131k eden H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131, enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyonun yeniden g\u00fcndeme gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Yakla\u015fan Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde sert k\u0131r\u0131lma hareketlerinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli EUR\/USD straddle veya strangle al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
ZEW g\u00fcven endeksinin Almanya\u2019da 26,3\u2019e ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde 23,4\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, hazirandaki tek haneli seviyelerden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir toparlanmaya i\u015faret ederek piyasa beklentilerini belirgin \u015fekilde a\u015ft\u0131. Ancak mevcut ko\u015fullar endeksi -77,6 ile derin negatif b\u00f6lgede kalmaya devam etti\u011finden, ekonomik zeminin h\u00e2l\u00e2 son derece k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011fu de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Katar, Pakistan ve M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n arabuluculu\u011funda y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen ate\u015fkes g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin sonu\u00e7suz kalmas\u0131 halinde ani a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flere kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in opsiyon spread\u2019lerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n uygun olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar\u0131n per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc ECB karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131yla birlikte, Euro opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite y\u00fckseliyor. Tarihsel veriler, ECB\u2019nin enerji krizleri s\u0131ras\u0131nda \u015fahin bir \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d duru\u015fu sergilemesi halinde Euro\u2019da izleyen iki haftada genellikle 150-200 piplik dalgalanmalar g\u00f6r\u00fclebildi\u011fini ortaya koyuyor. Christine Lagarde\u2019\u0131n \u015fahin tonda bir bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in 1,1550 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u043f\u043e\u0437\u0438syon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer yandan, Husilerin K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019de Suudi gemilerine y\u00f6nelik ablukas\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel deniz yoluyla ticaretin yakla\u015f\u0131k %12\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi hat \u00fczerinde tedarik zinciri aksakl\u0131klar\u0131 riskini art\u0131rabilece\u011fi g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak \u00f6nc\u00fc S&P Global PMI verileri bu deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 darbo\u011fazlar\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131rsa, ABD dolar\u0131 \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebiyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir al\u0131m g\u00f6rebilir. T\u00fcrev i\u015flemcileri, pe\u015fin prim maliyetini s\u0131n\u0131rlarken paritede 1,1400 destek b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla Euro\u2019da ratio put spread stratejileri olu\u015fturmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n