ABD hisse senedi endeks vadeli i\u015flemleri, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde diplomatik geli\u015fmelerin g\u00fcvenli liman talebini azaltmas\u0131yla y\u00fckseldi. Dow Jones vadeli i\u015flemleri %0,29 art\u0131\u015fla yakla\u015f\u0131k 52.220\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131karken, S&P 500 vadeli i\u015flemleri %0,44 y\u00fckseli\u015fle 7.520\u2019ye yak\u0131n seyretti ve Nasdaq 100 vadeli i\u015flemleri %1,12 artarak yakla\u015f\u0131k 29.100\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer, ABD ile gerilimin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesine y\u00f6nelik arabulucu \u00f6nerilerini ald\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 belirtirken, baz\u0131 haberlerde olas\u0131 10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir ate\u015fkese at\u0131f yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Hareket, Pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc zay\u0131f spot seans\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi. Dow Jones %0,59 gerilerken, S&P 500 %0,19 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve Nasdaq Composite %0,05 kay\u0131p ya\u015fad\u0131. Hisseler, y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak artan ABD tahvil getirilerinin enflasyon endi\u015felerini ve bu y\u0131l Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimalini beslemesiyle bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 \u015fimdi Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Charles Schwab, Chubb, Danaher, General Motors ve 3M\u2019in \u00e7eyreklik sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na kay\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda sert volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131k i\u00e7in t\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerinin ba\u015fl\u0131ca endeks opsiyonlar\u0131nda uzun straddle stratejilerini kullanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. 10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ate\u015fkes ile ortak bir askeri harek\u00e2t ihtimali aras\u0131ndaki hassas denge, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yak\u0131n vadeli seyrini son derece \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez k\u0131l\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, g\u00fcnl\u00fck 20 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde petrol\u00fcn ge\u00e7ti\u011fi bu kritik ticaret rotas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik tehditler, ham petrol fiyat\u0131nda %10-%15\u2019lik ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalara ve hisse piyasalar\u0131nda sert sat\u0131\u015flara yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fckselen tahvil getirilerine kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri korumak i\u00e7in, yakla\u015f\u0131k 29.100 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6ren Nasdaq 100 \u00fczerinde koruyucu put al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00fczeltmeler, tahvil getirilerindeki h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fin iskonto bask\u0131s\u0131 nedeniyle y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme odakl\u0131 teknoloji de\u011ferlemelerinden k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede %5\u2019e varan pay silebildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. K\u0131sa vadeli VIX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 kullan\u0131m\u0131 da diplomatik m\u00fczakerelerde olas\u0131 ani bir bozulmaya kar\u015f\u0131 korunma sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, Alphabet ve Tesla\u2019n\u0131n da \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 yo\u011fun bilan\u00e7o takviminde yol almak i\u00e7in opsiyon spread stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, mega-kap teknoloji devlerinde ima edilen volatilite, sonu\u00e7lar a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131ktan hemen sonra %30\u2019a kadar d\u00fc\u015febiliyor; bu da do\u011frudan opsiyon al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 pahal\u0131 ve riskli hale getiriyor. Iron condor veya takvim spread\u2019leri uygulamak, toplam sermaye riskimizi s\u0131n\u0131rlarken bu \u201cvolatilite ezilmesi\u201dnden (volatility crush) faydalanmam\u0131za imk\u00e2n tan\u0131yacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n