EUR\/USD Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc fazla de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6stermedi; 1,1400 seviyesinin birka\u00e7 pip \u00fczerinde tutunarak son d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k band\u0131n orta noktas\u0131na yak\u0131n seyretti. ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ndeki (DXY) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f pariteye bir miktar destek verirken, K\u00f6rfez\u2019deki g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fcndemi ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f Euro\u2019nun toparlanma alan\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131lamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Arabulucular\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019a 10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ate\u015fkes \u00f6nerisi sundu\u011funa dair haberler, riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutarak daha fazla de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 da frenledi.<\/p>\n
Avrupa\u2019da g\u00f6zler, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde ZEW Ekonomik G\u00fcven Endeksi\u2019ne \u00e7evrildi. Piyasada faizlerin sabit b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 genel beklenti. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 daha fiyatl\u0131yor ve Ba\u015fkan Christine Lagarde\u2019\u0131n bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yak\u0131ndan izleyecek. ABD taraf\u0131nda hafta genelinde veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 sakin; Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak \u00f6nc\u00fc S&P Global \u0130malat ve Hizmet PMI verileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. FX piyasa yap\u0131s\u0131nda Euro, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ndeki 20 AB \u00fclkesinin para birimi olup 2022\u2019de 2,2 trilyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki ortalama g\u00fcnl\u00fck i\u015flem hacmi i\u00e7inde i\u015flemlerin %31\u2019ini olu\u015fturdu; EUR\/USD t\u00fcm ak\u0131mlar\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %30\u2019unu temsil ederken, onu %4 ile EUR\/JPY, %3 ile EUR\/GBP ve %2 ile EUR\/AUD izliyor. ECB y\u0131lda sekiz kez toplan\u0131yor ve HICP kapsam\u0131nda %2 enflasyon hedefini g\u00f6zetiyor; Almanya, Fransa, \u0130talya ve \u0130spanya Euro B\u00f6lgesi ekonomisinin %75\u2019ini olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD paritesi 1,1400 seviyesinin hemen \u00fczerinde konsolide olurken t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n temkinli kalmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Parite son bir ayl\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fin orta b\u00f6lgesinde tutunurken, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc ECB toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor. K\u00fcresel d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda 7,5 trilyon dolarl\u0131k hacmin yakla\u015f\u0131k %30\u2019unu temsil eden EUR\/USD\u2019de, alg\u0131daki k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck de\u011fi\u015fimler dahi sert k\u0131r\u0131lmalar\u0131 tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da t\u0131rmanan gerilimi yak\u0131ndan izlemek \u015fart; \u00f6zellikle H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n fiilen kapanmas\u0131 ve K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019de Husilerin ablukas\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 normal ko\u015fullarda g\u00fcnde 20 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde petrol ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan (k\u00fcresel t\u00fcketimin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019si), olas\u0131 bir uzayan kesinti petrol\u00fc y\u00fcksek seviyelerde tutacakt\u0131r. Enerji maliyetlerindeki olas\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7raman\u0131n Euro\u2019yu bask\u0131layabilece\u011fi senaryosuna kar\u015f\u0131, uzun ham petrol al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) veya EUR\/USD sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put) gibi t\u00fcrev stratejileriyle korunma (hedge) \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ate\u015fkes \u00f6nerisine ili\u015fkin s\u00f6ylentiler \u015fimdilik Euro\u2019daki daha derin bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 engellese de, bu deste\u011fin olduk\u00e7a k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Tarihsel veriler, ge\u00e7ici jeopolitik duraklamalar\u0131n m\u00fczakerelerin bozulmas\u0131 halinde sert piyasa ters hareketlerine yol a\u00e7abildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ger\u00e7ek y\u00f6n\u00fc netle\u015fti\u011finde ani ve sert fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131mlar\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar EUR\/USD\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli straddle veya strangle al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc ECB faiz karar\u0131 bir sonraki ana kataliz\u00f6r; piyasalar Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na dair ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 i\u00e7in Ba\u015fkan Christine Lagarde\u2019\u0131n bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131na odaklanm\u0131\u015f durumda. T\u00fcrev piyasalarda, yap\u0131\u015fkan seyreden Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonuna kar\u015f\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131r\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek fiyatlan\u0131yor. Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Euro B\u00f6lgesi ZEW ekonomik g\u00fcven verisi beklentileri a\u015farsa, \u015fahin s\u00fcrprize pozisyon almak ad\u0131na Euro\u2019da bo\u011fa call spread stratejisi kurulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Atlantik\u2019in di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda, ABD ekonomisinin g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak \u00f6nc\u00fc S&P Global PMI verileri izlenmeli. ABD hizmet PMI\u2019\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131rsa\u20142026\u2019da yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6r\u00fclen 55,0 \u00fczeri kuvvetli geni\u015fleme okumalar\u0131na benzer \u015fekilde\u2014DXY son kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde telafi edebilir. Haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki zay\u0131f veri takviminden yararlanarak, bu veriye ba\u011fl\u0131 hareketlerden faydalanacak limit emirlerle pozisyonlanma \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n