{"id":51328,"date":"2026-07-21T06:30:13","date_gmt":"2026-07-21T06:30:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/usd-chf-yukseliyor-abd-iran-gerilimi-guvenli-liman-dolara-talebi-artirirken-faiz-artirimi-beklentilerini-guclendiriyor\/"},"modified":"2026-07-21T06:30:13","modified_gmt":"2026-07-21T06:30:13","slug":"usd-chf-yukseliyor-abd-iran-gerilimi-guvenli-liman-dolara-talebi-artirirken-faiz-artirimi-beklentilerini-guclendiriyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/usd-chf-yukseliyor-abd-iran-gerilimi-guvenli-liman-dolara-talebi-artirirken-faiz-artirimi-beklentilerini-guclendiriyor\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/CHF y\u00fckseliyor: ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi g\u00fcvenli liman dolara talebi art\u0131r\u0131rken faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

USD\/CHF, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n s\u00fcregelen ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 g\u00fcvenli liman talebinden destek bulmas\u0131yla, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya saatlerinde 0,8110 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek y\u00fckseli\u015fini ikinci seansa ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. T\u0131rmanan gerilim petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 iterken, yeniden canlanan enflasyon endi\u015felerini besliyor ve faiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne odaklanmay\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n

CME FedWatch Tool, piyasalar\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %64,2 olarak fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu oran bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn %57,8 seviyesindeydi. Yetkililer, gelecek haftaki FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesindeki ola\u011fan \u201csessiz d\u00f6nem\u201di (blackout period) izlerken, federal fonlama faizinin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde sabit b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 bekleniyor. ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 onuncu g\u00fcn\u00fcne girerken, Tahran\u2019\u0131n kom\u015fu \u00fclkelere y\u00f6nelik misilleme sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 da devam etti. \u0130svi\u00e7re taraf\u0131nda ise SNB tutanaklar\u0131, orta vadeli enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn istikrarl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ancak jeopolitik gerilimlerin k\u0131sa vadeli enflasyon risklerini art\u0131rmas\u0131yla ihtiyat\u0131n y\u00fckseldi\u011fini i\u015faret etti; SNB, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 frank de\u011ferlenmesini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak ve fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 desteklemek amac\u0131yla d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131na m\u00fcdahale etmeye haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu yineledi. Haziran D\u0131\u015f Ticaret Dengesi verisi g\u00fcn\u00fcn ilerleyen saatlerinde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak.<\/p>\n\n

Jeopolitik Gerilimler ve USD\/CHF Momentumu<\/h3>\n\n

ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki t\u0131rmanan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 izlerken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na USD\/CHF paritesinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyonlanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Artan jeopolitik risk, k\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 halihaz\u0131rda yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131rken, Brent petrol\u00fcn 85-90 dolar band\u0131n\u0131 test etmesi, tarihsel olarak ABD enflasyonunda ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 tetikleyebilen bir unsur. Bu momentumu de\u011ferlendirmek ve olas\u0131 ani piyasa d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in USD\/CHF \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n

CME FedWatch Tool\u2019un Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerinde %64,2\u2019ye y\u00fckseli\u015fe i\u015faret etmesiyle, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri daha \u00f6nce beklenenden belirgin \u015fekilde daha s\u0131k\u0131 bir para politikas\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, Orta Do\u011fu geriliminin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY), k\u00fcresel sermayenin g\u00fcvenli limana y\u00f6nelmesiyle birka\u00e7 haftal\u0131k periyotta ortalama %2 ila %3 de\u011fer kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. Bu \u015fahin (hawkish) de\u011fi\u015fimi kald\u0131ra\u00e7lamak i\u00e7in yakla\u015fan Eyl\u00fcl FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131na vadesi uzanan USD al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelmek uygun olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n

SNB Politikas\u0131 ve \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 Dinamikleri<\/h3>\n\n

Ayn\u0131 zamanda, \u0130svi\u00e7re Ulusal Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (SNB) yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor; SNB, frang\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini engellemek amac\u0131yla ge\u00e7mi\u015fte agresif d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahaleleriyle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. 2024\u2019\u00fcn ba\u015f\u0131ndaki m\u00fcdahaleler gibi \u00f6rneklerde SNB, \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019nin ihracata dayal\u0131 ekonomisini korumak i\u00e7in CHF kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 etkin bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Haziran D\u0131\u015f Ticaret Dengesi verisi (genellikle 3-4 milyar CHF civar\u0131nda fazla yans\u0131t\u0131r) dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ihracatta zay\u0131flamaya i\u015faret edebilecek sinyaller SNB\u2019yi harekete ge\u00e7irebilir; bu da CHF k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (short) daha cazip hale getirebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jeopolitik tansiyon USD\/CHF\u2019yi 0,8110\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131yor: g\u00fcvenli liman dolar, y\u00fckselen petrol ve enflasyon korkusuyla destek buluyor. FedWatch Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de %64,2 art\u0131\u015f fiyatlarken, SNB frank\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in m\u00fcdahaleye haz\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51328","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51328","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51328"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51328\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49985"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51328"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51328"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51328"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}