{"id":51318,"date":"2026-07-21T03:59:55","date_gmt":"2026-07-21T03:59:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/malezyada-2c-gsyh-beklentileri-asti-ringgit-yatay-seyrediyor-faiz-sabit-petrol-ve-yapay-zeka-ihracati-odakta\/"},"modified":"2026-07-21T03:59:55","modified_gmt":"2026-07-21T03:59:55","slug":"malezyada-2c-gsyh-beklentileri-asti-ringgit-yatay-seyrediyor-faiz-sabit-petrol-ve-yapay-zeka-ihracati-odakta","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/malezyada-2c-gsyh-beklentileri-asti-ringgit-yatay-seyrediyor-faiz-sabit-petrol-ve-yapay-zeka-ihracati-odakta\/","title":{"rendered":"Malezya\u2019da 2\u00c7 GSYH Beklentileri A\u015ft\u0131; Ringgit Yatay Seyrediyor; Faiz Sabit, Petrol ve Yapay Zek\u00e2 \u0130hracat\u0131 Odakta"},"content":{"rendered":"

Malezya\u2019n\u0131n 2\u00c7 GSYH \u00f6nc\u00fc tahmini y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %5,8\u2019e y\u00fckselerek Bloomberg uzla\u015f\u0131 beklentisi olan %5,2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti; 1\u00c7\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcme %5,4 olmu\u015ftu. \u0130lk yar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi %5,6 ile h\u00fck\u00fcmetin y\u0131l geneli %4\u20135 tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u015farken, i\u00e7 talep ve yapay zek\u00e2 ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 ihracat ivmeyi destekledi. Bununla birlikte, arz zinciri aksakl\u0131klar\u0131 ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc emtia fiyatlar\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 riskler, faaliyet ve enflasyon dinamikleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>\n

Bank Negara Malaysia\u2019n\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda politika faizini %2,75\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyreden enflasyon ve istikrarl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ko\u015fullar\u0131 bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc destekliyor. D\u00f6viz taraf\u0131nda USD\/MYR ge\u00e7en cuma %0,6 y\u00fckselerek 4,10\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve hafta boyunca ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131yla birlikte yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket etti. Parite, haziran sonundan bu yana 4,05\u20134,10 band\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ihracat ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclen portf\u00f6y giri\u015flerinin destek sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n—\n

Band \u0130\u00e7inde Kalan FX F\u0131rsatlar\u0131 ve Faiz Swap Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

USD\/MYR\u2019nin 4,05\u20134,10 gibi dar bir bantta s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bant i\u00e7i FX stratejilerine odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. K\u0131sa vadeli USD\/MYR opsiyonlar\u0131nda (\u00f6r. iron condor) sat\u0131\u015f pozisyonlar\u0131, volatilite bask\u0131lanm\u0131\u015f seyrederken prim erimesinden faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir. Son ticaret verileri, Malezya ihracat\u0131n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyrekte %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stererek istikrarl\u0131 kur g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc teyit ediyor.<\/p>\n

Bank Negara Malaysia\u2019n\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131n kalan\u0131nda politika faizini %2,75\u2019te tutma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 nedeniyle agresif faiz de\u011fi\u015fimleri y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon almak i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 te\u015fvik g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ringgit faiz swap piyasas\u0131nda, getirilerin istikrarl\u0131 ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyretmesinden faydalanmak \u00fczere receiver pozisyonlar\u0131na girilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, merkez bankas\u0131 istikrarl\u0131 i\u00e7 enflasyon ortam\u0131nda n\u00f6tr duru\u015funu korudu\u011funda k\u0131sa vadeli swap faizleri konsolidasyona e\u011filim g\u00f6sterir.<\/p>\n—\n

Emtia Ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 Hedge\u2019ler ve Teknoloji Odakl\u0131 T\u00fcrev Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

Ringgit\u2019in ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan takip etmesi nedeniyle, portf\u00f6y risklerini hedge etmek i\u00e7in emtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 opsiyonlar\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Brent petrol \u015fu anda varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 82 dolar seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve ringgit i\u00e7in kritik bir \u00e7\u0131pa i\u015flevi g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki olas\u0131 ani yukar\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ramalara kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir koruma olarak, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spotun d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) USD\/MYR put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n uygun olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

Son olarak, Malezya\u2019n\u0131n yapay zek\u00e2 ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc elektronik ihracat\u0131 teknoloji temal\u0131 t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnleri daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu sanayi ivmesinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI vadeli kontratlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Yurt i\u00e7i imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korurken, son sanayi \u00fcretimi verileri y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde istikrarl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

S\u00fcrpriz b\u00fcy\u00fcme! Malezya 2\u00c7 GSYH %5,8 ile beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131; i\u00e7 talep ve AI ihracat\u0131 destekliyor. USD\/MYR 4,05\u20134,10 band\u0131nda; BNM %2,75\u2019te. Bant i\u00e7i opsiyon\/swap, emtia hedge \u00f6neriliyor. Risk: zincir, emtia, enflasyon.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51318","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51318","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51318"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51318\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50005"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51318"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51318"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51318"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}