Ham petrol, Avrupa sabah\u0131nda 84,00 dolar\u0131n hemen \u00fczerinden \u00f6\u011fle saatlerinde 79,50 dolar\u0131n biraz alt\u0131na kadar geriledikten sonra, seans\u0131n ilerleyen b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde toparlanarak 82,00 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve 83,00 dolar\u0131 test etti; ard\u0131ndan 82,00 dolar\u0131n hemen \u00fczerinde yataya d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, Washington\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131kla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 \u0130ran kabiliyetlerine kar\u015f\u0131 dokuz gecedir aral\u0131ks\u0131z sald\u0131r\u0131 kaydetmesine, \u0130slam Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu\u2019nun Umman a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131nda tankerleri hedef almas\u0131na ve ABD sava\u015f u\u00e7a\u011f\u0131 filolar\u0131n\u0131n Avrupa\u2019dan yeniden konu\u015fland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen geldi. Gerilimi azaltan sinyaller aras\u0131nda diplomasinin h\u00e2l\u00e2 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funa y\u00f6nelik a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, \u00f6nerilen %20\u2019lik H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccretinin rafa kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve Irak-Suriye hatt\u0131ndaki bir boru hatt\u0131n\u0131n yeniden canland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 yer ald\u0131. Pazar g\u00fcnk\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %3\u2019l\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fin pozisyonlar\u0131 k\u00e2r sat\u0131\u015f\u0131na a\u00e7\u0131k b\u0131rakmas\u0131yla sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 80,00 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 kesti, ancak h\u0131zla 81,00 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n Truth Social\u2019da \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00dcrd\u00fcn\u2019de iki ABD askerini \u00f6ld\u00fcren sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u201cintikam\u201d s\u00f6z\u00fc verdi\u011fi payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 sonras\u0131nda geldi; iki saat i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k 2,00 dolarl\u0131k \u201csava\u015f primi\u201d yeniden fiyatland\u0131. ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha sonra 20:00 GMT\u2019de ilave sald\u0131r\u0131lar duyurdu; bunun art arda onuncu gece oldu\u011fu belirtildi. Fiziki piyasada ko\u015fullar s\u0131k\u0131 kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor: K\u00f6rfez ihracat\u0131 uzun d\u00f6nem referans\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyon varile k\u0131yasla g\u00fcnl\u00fck 7 milyon varil civar\u0131nda seyrediyor ve Stratejik Petrol Rezervi yakla\u015f\u0131k 319,5 milyon varilde; bu seviye 1983\u2019ten bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczey. \u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan seviyeler; 83,00 dolar direnci, ard\u0131ndan 84,00 ve 85,00 dolar; destek taraf\u0131nda 82,00 dolar, 81,00\u201381,50 band\u0131 ve 79,50 dip seviyesinin \u00fczerinde 80,00 dolar olarak belirtildi. 5 dakikal\u0131k Stokastik G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131ma do\u011fru so\u011fudu\u011fu ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, piyasan\u0131n jeopolitik man\u015fetlere y\u00fcksek hassasiyetini korumas\u0131 nedeniyle t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ham petrolde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine g\u00f6re konumlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. D\u00fcn 79,50 dolardan 82,00 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine do\u011fru g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde savunuldu\u011funu; buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn tek bir sosyal medya payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131yla dakikalar i\u00e7inde patlayabildi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Ham petrol\u00fcn h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 82,00 dolar civar\u0131nda seyretmesiyle, 80,00\u201381,00 dolar destek b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmelerde k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131yla al\u0131m yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n fiziki ger\u00e7ekleri, k\u0131sa pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131yanlar i\u00e7in neredeyse hi\u00e7 \u201ctampon\u201d b\u0131rakm\u0131yor; bu da olas\u0131 bir \u201cbar\u0131\u015f i\u015flemi\u201d kaynakl\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc olabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan g\u00fcnl\u00fck ham petrol ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 kal\u0131rken, ABD Stratejik Petrol Rezervi 319,5 milyon varil ile tarihsel olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir seviyede ve 1983\u2019ten bu yana en dip d\u00fczeyinde bulunuyor. K\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte kullan\u0131labilir yedek fiziki varil say\u0131s\u0131 \u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fundan, ani bir arz kesintisinin neredeyse an\u0131nda \u00e7ift haneli fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n\u0131 tetiklemesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc asimetriyi de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in 84,00 ve 85,00 dolar diren\u00e7 seviyelerini hedefleyen call dikey spread (vertical spread) yap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu yap\u0131, diplomasi s\u00f6ylentilerinin fiyatlar\u0131 ge\u00e7ici olarak a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesi halinde riski s\u0131n\u0131rlar; buna kar\u015f\u0131n bir sonraki t\u0131rmanma man\u015feti geldi\u011finde h\u0131zl\u0131 kazan\u00e7 potansiyonu i\u00e7in pozisyonu korur. 79,50 dolar gibi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek seviyesinin alt\u0131na put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (put writing) da bu iyimser stratejilerin finansman\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir; zira piyasan\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 80,00 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na itme konusunda i\u015ftahs\u0131z oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Son veriler de bu iyimser g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor: K\u00fcresel petrol talebinin, ekonomik r\u00fczg\u00e2rlara ra\u011fmen bu \u00e7eyrekte g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama 103 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi bekleniyor. Ayr\u0131ca, para y\u00f6neticilerinin ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 net uzun (net-long) pozisyonlar, \u00e7ok ayl\u0131k dip seviyeleri g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra yeniden y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flad\u0131; bu da kurumsal sermayenin tekrar uzun tarafa d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. Aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00fcst band\u0131nda piyasay\u0131 kovalamaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmal\u0131; bunun yerine uzun maruziyetimizi kurmak i\u00e7in g\u00fcn i\u00e7i k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli sert geri \u00e7ekilmeleri beklemeliyiz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n