Brent\u2019in en yak\u0131n vadeli kontrat\u0131, ABD\u2013\u0130ran geriliminin risk primlerini y\u00fckseltmesiyle haftay\u0131 %12 art\u0131\u015fla kapatt\u0131; hareketin b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc, sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan pazartesi ve sal\u0131 g\u00fcnlerinde yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131. Fiyatlar k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 91 dolar\/varil seviyesine do\u011fru t\u0131rmand\u0131ktan sonra geri \u00e7ekildi. Bu s\u0131rada Yemen\u2019deki Husilerin Suudi Arabistan\u2019a y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131 tehdidi ve daha \u00f6nce ticari gemiler i\u00e7in \u201cg\u00fcvenli ge\u00e7i\u015f\u201de ba\u011flanabilecek ABD \u00fccretleri tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 yeni risk ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ralli, rafine \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin ham petrole k\u0131yasla daha s\u0131k\u0131 kalmas\u0131yla da ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk geldi ve piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 ak\u0131\u015ftaki (downstream) streslere \u00e7evirdi.<\/p>\n
Crack spread\u2019ler b\u00f6lgeler genelinde g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; Asya\u2019da %22, ABD\u2019de %12 y\u00fckseldi. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden olas\u0131 kesintilere ve \u00fcr\u00fcn arz\u0131nda ya\u015fanabilecek s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011fa ili\u015fkin kayg\u0131n\u0131n Asya\u2019da daha belirgin oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Stok verileri haziranda 21 milyon varillik bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etse de, art\u0131\u015f\u0131n rafine \u00fcr\u00fcnlerden ziyade ham petrolde yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Tanker takip verileri, ham petrol\u00fcn H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ge\u00e7i\u015f hacimlerinin art\u0131k yakla\u015f\u0131k %80\u2019ini olu\u015fturdu\u011funu; bunun \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesi seviyelerin yakla\u015f\u0131k 5 puan \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterirken, LNG trafi\u011finin zay\u0131f kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi ham petrol \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde bir toparlanma anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda crack spread\u2019leri agresif bi\u00e7imde hedeflemelerini \u00f6neriyoruz; \u00f6zellikle rafine \u00fcr\u00fcn arz\u0131n\u0131n ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc s\u0131k\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 Asya ve ABD\u2019de. Asya crack spread\u2019lerindeki son %22\u2019lik s\u0131\u00e7rama ve ABD\u2019deki %12\u2019lik art\u0131\u015fa kar\u015f\u0131n, opsiyon piyasas\u0131 bitmi\u015f yak\u0131t arz s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ham petrole k\u0131yasla belirgin \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatl\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, jeopolitik arz \u015foklar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda k\u00fcresel rafineri kullan\u0131m oranlar\u0131 %90 civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011finde, rafine \u00fcr\u00fcn opsiyonlar\u0131 basit ham petrol pozisyonlar\u0131na g\u00f6re \u00e7ok daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc risk-getiri sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresinde t\u0131rmanan tehditlere kar\u015f\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 derecede rehavetli kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle, vadesi yak\u0131n d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d Brent al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131nda al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli bir pencere g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Brent 91 dolar\/varil b\u00f6lgesine ge\u00e7ici olarak y\u00fckselip geri \u00e7ekilmi\u015f olsa da, olas\u0131 bir deniz ablukas\u0131 bu kritik bo\u011fazdan g\u00fcnl\u00fck ge\u00e7en 20 milyon varillik petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 an\u0131nda sekteye u\u011fratabilir. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da yeni bir t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131n sert bir fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131 tetiklemesi ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ima edilen oynakl\u0131ktan yararlan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ayr\u0131ca, ham petrol birikimi ile rafine \u00fcr\u00fcn k\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki a\u00e7\u0131lan ayr\u0131\u015fmadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in takvim spread\u2019leri (calendar spreads) kurgulamas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Son veriler 21 milyon varillik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir k\u00fcresel stok art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; ancak bu art\u0131\u015f neredeyse tamamen rafine edilmemi\u015f ham petrolden olu\u015ftu\u011fu i\u00e7in, yak\u0131n vadeli \u00fcr\u00fcn kontratlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek bir primle i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi olas\u0131. Rafine \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki toparlanmaya liderlik etmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesiyle, motorin ve benzin vadeli i\u015flemlerinde backwardation\u2019\u0131n devam\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n