Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k, yeni atanan Ba\u015fbakan Andy Burnham\u2019\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi ilk kabine revizyonu s\u0131ras\u0131nda Maliye Bakan\u0131 (Chancellor of the Exchequer) Rachel Reeves\u2019in istifa etmesinin ard\u0131ndan yeni bir siyasi belirsizlik d\u00f6nemine girdi. Reeves, arka s\u0131ralara (backbenches) d\u00f6nerken, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k medyas\u0131 ba\u015fka bir kabine g\u00f6revini kabul etmedi\u011fini bildirdi. Hazine (Treasury) hen\u00fcz halefini a\u00e7\u0131klamad\u0131; bu durum piyasalar\u0131 yeni h\u00fck\u00fcmetin mali duru\u015funa ili\u015fkin k\u0131sa vadede netlikten yoksun b\u0131rakt\u0131.<\/p>\n
A\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan i\u015flem ko\u015fullar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Gilt faizi, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek risk primi talep etmesiyle yakla\u015f\u0131k %5,050\u2019ye y\u00fckselirken, Sterlin zay\u0131f seyrini korudu. GBP\/USD paritesi g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,24 gerileyerek 1,3420 civar\u0131na indi; bu hareket, y\u00f6netimin ekonomik stratejisinin y\u00f6n\u00fc ve zamanlamas\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015feleri yans\u0131tt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Westminster\u2019\u0131 saran siyasi belirsizlik s\u00fcrerken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda sterlin paritelerinde artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. GBP\/USD\u2019nin 1,3420\u2019ye gerilemesiyle, yeni bir Maliye Bakan\u0131 atanana kadar ya\u015fanabilecek sert hareketlerden faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli straddle veya strangle al\u0131mlar\u0131 etkili olabilir. Tarihsel veriler, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta ani liderlik ge\u00e7i\u015flerinin \u00e7o\u011fu zaman h\u0131zl\u0131 kur dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131 tetikledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu da \u015fu a\u015famada tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131 olduk\u00e7a riskli k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Gilt faizinin %5,050\u2019ye s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, piyasan\u0131n y\u00fcksek bir risk primi fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Faizlerin daha da y\u00fckselmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla faiz payer swap\u2019lar\u0131n\u0131n ve uzun vadeli (long-gilt) vadeli i\u015flem kontratlar\u0131 \u00fczerine put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu s\u0131\u00e7rama, 2022 sonbahar\u0131ndaki tahvil piyasas\u0131 krizini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor; o d\u00f6nemde 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiriler %4,5\u2019in \u00fczerine t\u0131rmanm\u0131\u015f ve merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131 acil m\u00fcdahaleye zorlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu senaryoya kar\u015f\u0131 aktif bi\u00e7imde haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, hisse yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc koruma aray\u0131\u015f\u0131yla FTSE endeks opsiyonlar\u0131nda i\u015flem hacminin belirgin \u015fekilde artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Ba\u015fbakan Burnham\u2019\u0131n maliye politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin netlik eksikli\u011fi g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00fclke i\u00e7i odakl\u0131 endekslerde out-of-the-money put opsiyonu almak, maruziyeti s\u0131n\u0131rlamak ad\u0131na temkinli bir y\u00f6ntemdir. Hazine\u2019den net bir ekonomik strateji a\u00e7\u0131klanana kadar bu ge\u00e7i\u015f d\u00f6neminde sermayenin korunmas\u0131 \u00f6nceli\u011fimiz olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n