Brent\u2019in en yak\u0131n vadeli kontrat\u0131, t\u0131rmanan ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi ve Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n risk primlerini y\u00fckseltmesiyle haftay\u0131 %12 art\u0131\u015fla kapatt\u0131; hareketin b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131 pazartesi ve sal\u0131 g\u00fcnlerinde yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131. Fiyatlar man\u015fetlerin ard\u0131ndan ilk etapta 91 $\/varil seviyesine do\u011fru itildi, ard\u0131ndan geri \u00e7ekildi. Di\u011fer tarafta, tanker takip verileri K\u00f6rfez sevkiyatlar\u0131nda ham petrol a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 bir toparlanmaya i\u015faret etti: Ham petrol\u00fcn H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ge\u00e7i\u015f hacimlerinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %80\u2019ini olu\u015fturdu\u011fu, bunun \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesi seviyelerin yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015f puan \u00fczerinde oldu\u011fu tahmin edilirken, LNG trafi\u011finin ise geride kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n\n
Rafineri marjlar\u0131, ham petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n kendisinden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131. SoH \u00fczerinden olas\u0131 kesintilere ve \u00fcr\u00fcn arz\u0131nda k\u0131tl\u0131k riskine ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerle uyumlu \u015fekilde crack spread\u2019ler Asya\u2019da %22, ABD\u2019de %12 y\u00fckseldi. Stok verileri de tabloyu destekledi; haziranda stoklar\u0131n 21 milyon varil artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildirildi ve bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kla ham petrolde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi, rafine \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde ise dengelerin g\u00f6rece daha s\u0131k\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirildi.<\/p>\n\n
Ge\u00e7en hafta Brent ham petrol\u00fcnde g\u00f6r\u00fclen ani %12\u2019lik s\u0131\u00e7rama dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine g\u00f6re pozisyonlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Brent 91 $\/varil seviyesine k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine dokunduktan sonra geri \u00e7ekilse de, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik tehditler son derece canl\u0131. ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi t\u0131rman\u0131rken ani fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli Brent al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Asya\u2019da %22 ve ABD\u2019de %12 artan crack spread\u2019lerde i\u015flem yapmak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan y\u00fcksek k\u00e2rl\u0131 bir f\u0131rsat da g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Rafine \u00fcr\u00fcn stoklar\u0131 ham petrole k\u0131yasla \u00e7ok daha s\u0131k\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, \u00fcr\u00fcn crack\u2019lerinin g\u00f6rece daha iyi performans g\u00f6stermesi beklenebilir. Bu a\u00e7\u0131lan farktan yararlanmak \u00fczere benzin ve kalorifer yak\u0131t\u0131 (heating oil) crack spread\u2019lerinde uzun pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Transit verilerine ili\u015fkin analizimiz, ham petrol\u00fcn H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n %80\u2019ini olu\u015fturdu\u011funu ve arz risklerini tek bir bo\u011faz noktas\u0131nda yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Tarihsel olarak bu t\u00fcr darbo\u011fazlar, OPEC+\u2019\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 arz disipliniyle birle\u015fti\u011finde piyasada ani s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmalara yol a\u00e7abiliyor. K\u00fcresel petrol talebi bu yaz g\u00fcnl\u00fck 104 milyon varil ile rekor seviyelere yak\u0131n seyrederken, riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019lerinin (bull call spreads) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Ge\u00e7en ay k\u00fcresel stoklar 21 milyon varil artsa da, bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n neredeyse tamam\u0131 ham petrolde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti; rafine \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde de\u011fil. Ge\u00e7ici fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerine ra\u011fmen en yak\u0131n vadeli kontratlarda k\u0131sa pozisyonlardan ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bunun yerine, ani sevkiyat kesintilerine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla oynakl\u0131kta net uzun pozisyonda kal\u0131nmal\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n