{"id":51298,"date":"2026-07-20T23:00:25","date_gmt":"2026-07-20T23:00:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/orta-dogu-basliklari-dolar-talebini-artirirken-eur-usd-geri-cekildi-petrol-yukseldi-volatilite-artti\/"},"modified":"2026-07-20T23:00:25","modified_gmt":"2026-07-20T23:00:25","slug":"orta-dogu-basliklari-dolar-talebini-artirirken-eur-usd-geri-cekildi-petrol-yukseldi-volatilite-artti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/orta-dogu-basliklari-dolar-talebini-artirirken-eur-usd-geri-cekildi-petrol-yukseldi-volatilite-artti\/","title":{"rendered":"Orta Do\u011fu Ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131 Dolar Talebini Art\u0131r\u0131rken EUR\/USD Geri \u00c7ekildi; Petrol Y\u00fckseldi, Volatilite Artt\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

EUR\/USD Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,1408\u2019e gerileyerek g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 1,1449 zirvesinden \u00e7ekildi; i\u015flemler risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131p kapanmas\u0131yla risk-on ve risk-off aras\u0131nda gidip geldi. \u00d6nemli bir ekonomik veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki geli\u015fmeler para ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 belirledi. Euro, Reuters\u2019\u0131n arabulucular\u0131n ge\u00e7ici ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 yeniden canland\u0131rmaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olmak i\u00e7in sald\u0131r\u0131lara 10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ara \u00f6nerdi\u011fini bildirmesi ve her iki taraftan yetkililerin diplomasinin h\u00e2l\u00e2 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funu belirtmesi sonras\u0131 ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla erken saatlerde g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; ancak Reuters\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019la ayn\u0131 \u00e7izgideki Yemenli Husilerin Suudi Arabistan\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 derhal deniz ablukas\u0131 ilan etti\u011fini aktarmas\u0131yla ivme tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc ve Dolar\u2019a d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tetikledi.<\/p>\n

ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 101,00 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, 100,65\u2019teki dip seviyeden toparland\u0131. Petrol, temmuz ba\u015f\u0131nda ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana bir ay\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fcksek seviyesine y\u00fckseldi; bu durum, haziranda hem Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde hem ABD\u2019de fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131 so\u011fumu\u015f olsa da enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon risklerini yeniden g\u00fcndemde tutuyor. Piyasalar, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Mevduat Kolayl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Faizi\u2019ni %2,25\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 beklerken, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na kadar bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 tam olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; ABD\u2019de ise CME FedWatch Tool, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda Federal Rezerv\u2019in (Fed) faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %63 olarak g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Opsiyon Stratejileri ve Volatilite \u0130\u015flemleri<\/h3>\n

T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n EUR\/USD\u2019de uzun straddle stratejileri kullanarak artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Parite, Orta Do\u011fu haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak 1,1400 ile 1,1450 aras\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde sal\u0131n\u0131rken, hem al\u0131m (call) hem sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almak, her iki y\u00f6nde sert k\u0131r\u0131lmalardan kazan\u00e7 elde etmemizi sa\u011flar. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, Euro B\u00f6lgesi d\u00f6viz implied volatilite endeksinin son g\u00fcnlerde %12\u2019nin \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselmesiyle de destekleniyor.<\/p>\n

Fed ile ECB aras\u0131ndaki politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015flemesini oynamak i\u00e7in faiz oran\u0131 opsiyonlar\u0131na da bak\u0131lmal\u0131. Halihaz\u0131rda CME FedWatch Tool, ABD\u2019de eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %63 g\u00f6sterirken, ECB\u2019nin bu hafta mevduat faizini %2,25\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131 ve daha sonra art\u0131r\u0131ma gitmesi bekleniyor. Tarihsel olarak, faiz olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 %60 civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011finde, merkez bankas\u0131 nihayet ad\u0131m att\u0131\u011f\u0131nda opsiyon primleri ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen piyasa hareketini \u00e7o\u011fu zaman d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlar.<\/p>\n

Enflasyon Korumas\u0131 ve Defansif Konumlanma<\/h3>\n

Ayr\u0131ca, yeniden canlanabilecek enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131yla korunma \u00f6neriyoruz. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, Suudi Arabistan\u2019a y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131 nedeniyle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolara do\u011fru yeniden t\u0131rmand\u0131; bu da haziranda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz enflasyon so\u011fumas\u0131n\u0131 tersine \u00e7evirme riski ta\u015f\u0131yor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonu enerjiye duyarl\u0131 kalmaya devam etti\u011finden, enerji kaynakl\u0131 fiyat \u015foklar\u0131 ECB\u2019yi h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda fiyatlanandan daha \u015fahin bir duru\u015fa h\u0131zla itebilir.<\/p>\n

Son olarak, k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki ani de\u011fi\u015fimlere kar\u015f\u0131 daha geni\u015f portf\u00f6yleri korumak i\u00e7in ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) vadeli i\u015flemlerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. DXY \u015fu anda 101,00 seviyesini test ediyor ve jeopolitik man\u015fetler k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015firse kolayl\u0131kla yukar\u0131 k\u0131rabilir. Tarihsel olarak, bu direncin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir hareket EUR\/USD\u2019de h\u0131zl\u0131 bir %1,5 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, Euro\u2019da ucuz a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc putlar cazip bir defansif i\u015flem olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jeopolitik man\u015fetler EUR\/USD\u2019yi savurdu: 1,1449\u2019dan 1,1408\u2019e \u00e7ekildi, DXY 101\u2019e toparland\u0131, petrol 85$\u2019a t\u0131rmand\u0131. Straddle, petrol call ve DXY hedge \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51298","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51298","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51298"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51298\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49971"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51298"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51298"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51298"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}