Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB), Haziran ay\u0131ndaki \u00f6nceden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde sinyali verilen 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini %2,25 seviyesinde sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Y\u00f6netim Konseyi\u2019nin veriye ba\u011fl\u0131, toplant\u0131dan toplant\u0131ya \u015fekillenen duru\u015funu korumas\u0131 ve g\u00fcncel makroekonomik tahminlerin a\u00e7\u0131klanmayacak olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, verilecek mesaj\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde gelen enflasyon ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme verilerine dayanmas\u0131 olas\u0131. Euro B\u00f6lgesi T\u00dcFE g\u00f6stergeleri ECB\u2019nin baz senaryo tahmininin bir miktar alt\u0131nda seyrederken, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki toparlanma da ana senaryodaki varsay\u0131m\u0131n gerisinde kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 \u015fahin kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Swap e\u011frisi Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tamamen fiyatl\u0131yor ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ayda 50 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya i\u015faret ediyor; bu da politika faizini %2,75\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131yor. Bu seviye, ECB\u2019nin tahmini n\u00f6tr faiz aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 olan %1,75\u2013%3,00 band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst k\u0131sm\u0131na yak\u0131n. Euro B\u00f6lgesi ekonomisi h\u00e2l\u00e2 potansiyelinin alt\u0131nda \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, daha s\u0131k\u0131 politikan\u0131n EUR\u2019da net ve kal\u0131c\u0131 kazan\u00e7lar \u00fcretmekten ziyade a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ECB faiz beklentilerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir revizyon olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n\n
Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bu Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc, Haziran\u2019daki 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, temel politika faizini %2,25\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonu h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n baz tahminlerinin az da olsa alt\u0131nda seyretti\u011fi i\u00e7in, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n veriye ba\u011fl\u0131 \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131na sad\u0131k kalmas\u0131 y\u00fcksek ihtimal. Bu ara, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n Euro\u2019da sert bir k\u0131r\u0131lma yerine bir s\u00fcre konsolidasyona haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n\n
Swap piyasas\u0131 \u015fu anda Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir y\u0131lda toplamda 50 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 olduk\u00e7a agresif bi\u00e7imde fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da faizleri %2,75\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131yacakt\u0131r. Ancak Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme son \u00e7eyreklerde yaln\u0131zca %0,2 ile zay\u0131f seyrederken, ekonomi h\u00e2l\u00e2 tam potansiyelinin belirgin bi\u00e7imde alt\u0131nda \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bu zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n, agresif faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini k\u0131r\u0131lgan k\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyonlara a\u00e7\u0131k hale getirdi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu ortam, Euro\u2019nun ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde korunurken, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn belirgin \u015fekilde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Do\u011frudan Euro al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) sat\u0131n almak yerine, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put) sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 veya iron condor gibi bant i\u00e7i opsiyon stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel veriler, ECB\u2019nin tahmini %1,75\u2013%3,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki n\u00f6tr band\u0131n \u00fcst b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcne yak\u0131n seviyelerde duraklad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde EUR\/USD paritesinin dar ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir bantlar i\u00e7inde i\u015flem g\u00f6rme e\u011filiminde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n
Son d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131 istatistikleri, EUR\/USD z\u0131mni volatilitesinin y\u0131ll\u0131k dip seviyelere yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve piyasan\u0131n sert hareketler beklemedi\u011fini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 fonlar aras\u0131ndaki net uzun Euro pozisyonlar\u0131 azalmaya ba\u015flad\u0131; bu da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir Euro rallisine y\u00f6nelik i\u015ftah\u0131n zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teyit ediyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda prim toplama odakl\u0131 stratejilere a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vererek, yava\u015f hareket eden ve bant i\u00e7i seyreden piyasadan faydalan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n