S&P 500, teknoloji hisselerindeki sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n etkisiyle Per\u015fembe ve Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc geriledi. Hareketin arkas\u0131nda, rekabetin artmas\u0131 ve hizmet maliyetlerinin d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle birlikte, yapay zek\u00e2ya yap\u0131lan y\u00fcksek harcamalar\u0131n ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde savunulabilir oldu\u011funa dair \u015f\u00fcpheler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Anl\u0131k tetikleyici ise Moonshot\u2019\u0131n, ABD\u2019li rakiplerini geride b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildirilen Kimi K3 modelini piyasaya s\u00fcrmesi oldu; bu geli\u015fme, DeepSeek\u2019in 2025\u2019in ba\u015flar\u0131nda geni\u015f endeksi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemi yeniden hat\u0131rlatt\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u201cYedi Muhte\u015fem\u201d y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana neredeyse hi\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fcmedi ve hem S&P 500\u2019\u00fcn hem de a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 ortalama bir endeksin gerisinde kald\u0131. Daha geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 bu g\u00f6sterge 16 Temmuz i\u015flemlerinde rekor seviyeye ula\u015farak piyasaya kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n tabana yay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ederken, Apple\u2019\u0131n piyasa de\u011feri k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine Nvidia\u2019n\u0131n piyasa de\u011ferini a\u015farak k\u00fcresel birincili\u011fi yeniden ald\u0131. \u00c7ip \u00fcreticilerinden de para \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 ya\u015fand\u0131; bu durum, SOX yar\u0131 iletken endeksinin zirvesinden %20 gerilemesine katk\u0131da bulundu. S\u00f6z konusu hareket, ay\u0131 piyasas\u0131na ge\u00e7i\u015f olarak tan\u0131mland\u0131. Dikkatler \u015fimdi 24 Temmuz\u2019a kadar s\u00fcrecek ikinci \u00e7eyrek bilan\u00e7olar\u0131na \u00e7evrildi; General Motors, Alphabet, IBM, Tesla, Intel ve Verizon \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan \u015firketler aras\u0131nda. Piyasa ise Orta Do\u011fu gerilimleri, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc petrol ve so\u011fuyan t\u00fcketici\/\u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131na ra\u011fmen bu ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00f6rmezden geldi; ana itici g\u00fc\u00e7 sekt\u00f6r rotasyonu olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasada, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bir d\u00f6nem bask\u0131n olan \u201cYedi Muhte\u015fem\u201d ve ay\u0131 piyasas\u0131na girerek %20 d\u00fc\u015fen yar\u0131 iletken hisselerinden uzakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bir kayma g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bundan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, 16 Temmuz\u2019da rekor k\u0131ran e\u015fit a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 S&P 500 endeksine odaklanan opsiyon stratejilerine y\u00f6nelmeliyiz. E\u015fit a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 ETF\u2019lerde bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019leri kullanmak, teknoloji sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndan ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131rken piyasa geneline yay\u0131lan b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi yakalamam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Moonshot\u2019\u0131n Kimi K3 modeli gibi \u00c7inli rakiplerin, t\u0131pk\u0131 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki DeepSeek \u00f6rne\u011finde oldu\u011fu gibi ABD\u2019nin yapay zek\u00e2 \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne meydan okumas\u0131yla, teknoloji hisselerindeki primler y\u00fcksek k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k ta\u015f\u0131yor. Y\u00fcksek de\u011ferlemeli yar\u0131 iletken devlerinde koruyucu put almal\u0131 veya ay\u0131 sat\u0131m spread\u2019leri kurmal\u0131y\u0131z. Tarihsel olarak SOX yar\u0131 iletken endeksi tepesinden %20 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumun birka\u00e7 hafta s\u00fcrme e\u011filimi bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu hafta Alphabet, Tesla ve Intel\u2019den gelecek y\u00fcksek riskli bilan\u00e7olar, volatilite yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in ideal bir ortam yarat\u0131yor. 24 Temmuz \u00f6ncesinde beklenen b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in bu belirli teknoloji hisselerinde straddle al\u0131nabilir. Z\u0131mni volatilite y\u00fckseliyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, dev yapay zek\u00e2 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ekten \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131na yans\u0131y\u0131p yans\u0131mad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmeye odaklanm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, piyasan\u0131n \u015fimdilik g\u00f6rmezden geldi\u011fi Orta Do\u011fu gerilimleri ve petrol fiyat hareketleri gibi makroekonomik unsurlara kar\u015f\u0131 da haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. Bu bask\u0131lar zamanla yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyona ve daha y\u00fcksek faizlere yol a\u00e7arsa, hisse piyasalar\u0131 sert bi\u00e7imde tersine d\u00f6nebilir. Piyasadaki korkunun aniden geri d\u00f6nmesine kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri hedge etmek i\u00e7in ucuz, vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) VIX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 almak ak\u0131ll\u0131ca bir yol olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n