\u0130ran, dokuz g\u00fcnd\u00fcr s\u00fcren sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan askeri yan\u0131t sinyali vermeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, arabuluculuk giri\u015fimlerinin de aktif kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor. D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 S\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc \u0130smail Beka\u00ee, daha geni\u015f bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 \u00f6nlemeyi ama\u00e7layan arac\u0131 akt\u00f6rlerden Tahran\u2019a \u00f6neriler ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201cm\u00fczakereler ile sava\u015f aras\u0131nda se\u00e7im yapmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi\u201d y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki \u00e7er\u00e7evelemeyi reddetti.<\/p>\n
Beka\u00ee, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n silahl\u0131 kuvvetleri kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verirken, ABD\u2019nin eylemlerini durdurmaya y\u00f6nelik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin de s\u00fcrece\u011fini ekledi. Askeri duru\u015f ile devam eden diplomatik kanal\u0131n bu bile\u015fimi, tabloyu \u201ckontrol alt\u0131nda ancak k\u0131r\u0131lgan\u201d olarak tan\u0131ml\u0131 tutuyor; son sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan petrol fiyatlar\u0131na destek verirken, daha geni\u015f risk i\u015ftah\u0131na ise yaln\u0131zca s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 katk\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu diplomasisi ile askeri pozisyon alma aras\u0131ndaki hassas denge s\u00fcrerken, Brent petrol\u00fcn 80 dolar civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu \u201cy\u00f6netilen ancak k\u0131r\u0131lgan\u201d ortam, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda jeopolitik risk primlerinin kal\u0131c\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6nsel rehavetten ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; zira ani haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcn i\u00e7i %5\u2019lik hareketleri kolayl\u0131kla tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Ham petrol volatilite endeksi (OVX) %30 seviyesine yak\u0131n seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, y\u00fcksek primlerden faydalanmak i\u00e7in opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 stratejilerine odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. \u00d6zellikle, bant i\u00e7inde kalan ancak hassasiyeti y\u00fcksek bu piyasadan yararlanmak i\u00e7in geni\u015f strangle\u2019lar veya iron condor\u2019lar\u0131 tercih ediyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, zaman de\u011fer kayb\u0131ndan getiri sa\u011flarken, ani diplomatik y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 bir g\u00fcvenlik tamponu b\u0131rak\u0131r.<\/p>\n
B\u00f6lgesel bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde tam bir kopu\u015f riskine kar\u015f\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir sigorta olarak \u201czarar d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel veriler, son iki y\u0131lda b\u00fcy\u00fck jeopolitik bozulmalar\u0131n ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 bir haftadan k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bull call spread kullan\u0131m\u0131, potansiyel yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lmalara maruziyeti korurken ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyetini s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, son d\u00f6nemde g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama 1,2 milyon varil d\u00fc\u015fen k\u00fcresel stok seviyelerini yak\u0131ndan izlemeliyiz. Bu fiziksel s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131k, diplomatik \u00e7abalar\u0131n \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 ba\u015far\u0131yla yat\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 halinde bile Brent i\u00e7in 75 dolar civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban olu\u015fturacakt\u0131r. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 se\u00e7imini y\u00f6nlendirmek i\u00e7in bu destek seviyelerinden yararlanmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n\n\n