{"id":51282,"date":"2026-07-20T18:30:23","date_gmt":"2026-07-20T18:30:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/euro-ecbnin-yonlendirmesinin-feddeki-belirsizlikle-tezat-olusturmasiyla-destek-ariyor-eur-usdde-yukari-kirilma-ihtimali-artiyor\/"},"modified":"2026-07-20T18:30:23","modified_gmt":"2026-07-20T18:30:23","slug":"euro-ecbnin-yonlendirmesinin-feddeki-belirsizlikle-tezat-olusturmasiyla-destek-ariyor-eur-usdde-yukari-kirilma-ihtimali-artiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/euro-ecbnin-yonlendirmesinin-feddeki-belirsizlikle-tezat-olusturmasiyla-destek-ariyor-eur-usdde-yukari-kirilma-ihtimali-artiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Euro, ECB\u2019nin y\u00f6nlendirmesinin Fed\u2019deki belirsizlikle tezat olu\u015fturmas\u0131yla destek ar\u0131yor; EUR\/USD\u2019de yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lma ihtimali art\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Euro, piyasalar\u0131n jeopolitik riski yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131 ve Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) \u201cFramework Guidance\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 ile ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmeden uzakla\u015fmas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131\u011fa odaklanmas\u0131yla yak\u0131n vadede destek bulabilir. Politika ileti\u015fimi ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131rken EUR\/USD\u2019nin son d\u00f6nemdeki band\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p \u00e7\u0131kamayaca\u011f\u0131 izleniyor; ECB, Fed\u2019e k\u0131yasla daha net bir sinyal verme \u00e7er\u00e7evesi sunuyor.<\/p>\n

ECB, 23 Temmuz\u2019daki Y\u00f6netim Konseyi toplant\u0131s\u0131nda taktiksel bir duraklamaya i\u015faret etti; ancak piyasalar 10 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizin 25 baz puan art\u0131r\u0131larak %2,50\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %87,8 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu patikan\u0131n teyidi, EUR\/USD\u2019yi bu ayki 1,1360\u20131,1480 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. ABD\u2019de ise Kongre\u2019ye verilen ifadeler ve 28\u201329 Temmuz FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik planlar, Fed\u2019in Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de olas\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in fiyatlamaya yeniden bir \u201cbelirsizlik primi\u201d ekleyebilece\u011fi beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca, FOMC metnindeki olas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fikliklerin ve Ba\u015fkan\u2019\u0131n ilk Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda tahmin payla\u015fmamas\u0131n\u0131n, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de \u201cdot plot\u201d ve Ekonomik Projeksiyonlar \u00d6zeti\u2019nin (SEP) etkisinin azalaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret edip etmedi\u011fini takip ediyor.<\/p>\n

ECB-Fed Politika Ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 Ortam\u0131nda \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131rken \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda EUR\/USD paritesinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya pozisyonlanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. \u00d6zellikle, paraya yak\u0131n (near-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak veya y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk reversal kurmak, 1,1360\u20131,1480 mevcut i\u015flem band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmadan faydalanabilir. Bu strateji, piyasan\u0131n Fed belirsizli\u011fine k\u0131yasla ECB\u2019nin daha \u015feffaf politika patikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik artan g\u00fcveniyle uyumludur.<\/p>\n

ECB\u2019nin 23 Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizi sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor, ancak opsiyon piyasas\u0131 ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck ad\u0131mlar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde fiyatl\u0131yor. H\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 10 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizin 25 baz puan art\u0131r\u0131larak %2,50\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %87,8. ECB\u2019nin bu hafta bu \u015fahin patikay\u0131 teyit etmesi h\u00e2linde, tarihsel olarak b\u00fcy\u00fck para politikas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimleri \u00f6ncesinde %15 ila %20 s\u0131\u00e7rama e\u011filimi g\u00f6steren EUR\/USD ima edilen volatilitesinin belirgin \u015fekilde y\u00fckselmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n

Fed\u2019in Belirsizlik Primi ve Taktiksel Pozisyonlanma<\/h3>\n

Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh liderli\u011findeki Fed\u2019in devreye ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201cbelirsizlik primi\u201d ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatabilir. 28\u201329 Temmuz FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde i\u015flem yapanlar, ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmeyi azaltma ve dot plot tahminlerini potansiyel olarak devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rakma planlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunma aray\u0131\u015f\u0131nda. Tarihsel veriler, ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmenin kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n genellikle ABD Hazine tahvili getirilerinde volatiliteyi art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesiyle dolar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Bu ge\u00e7i\u015ften yararlanmak i\u00e7in, hem 23 Temmuz ECB karar\u0131n\u0131 hem de 28\u201329 Temmuz Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yakalayan k\u0131sa vadeli kontratlara odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Artan politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n iki y\u00f6nde de sert ve ani bir harekete yol a\u00e7mas\u0131 durumunda uzun straddle stratejileri de k\u00e2rl\u0131 olabilir. Piyasa, Fed\u2019in yeni ve daha az \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir ileti\u015fim tarz\u0131na uyum sa\u011flarken esnek pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131mak kritik olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Euro\u2019da kritik e\u015fik: ECB\u2019nin net \u201cframework\u201d sinyali ve Fed\u2019in belirsizle\u015fen y\u00f6nlendirmesi EUR\/USD\u2019yi destekleyebilir. Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de %87,8 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlan\u0131yor; 1,1480 \u00fczeri k\u0131r\u0131lma ve opsiyonlarla y\u00fckseli\u015f\/straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51282","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51282","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51282"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51282\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49977"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51282"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51282"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51282"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}