Yemen\u2019in Husi hareketi, Reuters\u2019in aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir a\u00e7\u0131klamaya g\u00f6re Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Suudi Arabistan\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 deniz ablukas\u0131 uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyurdu. Grubun askeri s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc, \u00f6nlemin derhal y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girece\u011fini belirterek bunu denizden bir ambargo olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131; ancak uygulaman\u0131n nas\u0131l sa\u011flanaca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin ayr\u0131nt\u0131 vermedi.<\/p>\n
Ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan WTI ham petrol y\u00fckseldi; g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 80 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131ndaki diplerden toparlanarak yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda 81,35 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc, ancak g\u00fcn genelinde %0,48 ekside kalmaya devam etti. WTI (West Texas Intermediate), ABD kaynakl\u0131 \u201chafif\u201d ve \u201cd\u00fc\u015f\u00fck k\u00fck\u00fcrtl\u00fc (sweet)\u201d bir ham petrol referans\u0131d\u0131r ve Cushing merkezi \u00fczerinden da\u011f\u0131t\u0131l\u0131r. Fiyat\u0131 arz-talep dengesiyle \u015fekillenir; OPEC\u2019in \u00fcretim politikas\u0131 ve ABD Dolar\u0131 ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere \u00e7e\u015fitli unsurlar belirleyicidir. Her Sal\u0131 yay\u0131mlanan API ve ertesi g\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan EIA haftal\u0131k stok verileri de fiyatlar\u0131 hareketlendirebilir; bu iki veri seti zaman\u0131n %75\u2019inde birbirine %1 i\u00e7inde yak\u0131n seyreder. OPEC, 12 petrol \u00fcreticisi \u00fclkeden olu\u015furken, OPEC+ Rusya dahil 10 OPEC d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00fcyeyi ekler.<\/p>\n
Husilerin abluka a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan WTI\u2019\u0131n 81,35 dolara s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131yla, k\u0131sa vadede petrol piyasas\u0131nda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu ani jeopolitik risk, yak\u0131n vadeli (front-month) opsiyonlarda z\u0131mni volatilitede s\u0131\u00e7ramaya yol a\u00e7acak; bu da uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 ve bo\u011fa call spread stratejilerini olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz b\u00f6lgesindeki ani t\u0131rmanmalar, ham petrol opsiyon primlerini h\u0131zla yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti. Daha fazla prim geni\u015flemesi ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nceden pozisyonlan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Geni\u015fleyen backwardation\u2019dan faydalanmak i\u00e7in takvim spread\u2019lerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; \u00f6zellikle yak\u0131n vadeli WTI kontratlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131 ve daha ileri vadelerin sat\u0131lmas\u0131. Fiziksel sevkiyat tehditleri artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, acil teslimata y\u00f6nelik arz daha de\u011ferli hale gelir ve yak\u0131n vade fiyat\u0131 ileri vadeye g\u00f6re primli i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcr. 2024\u2019\u00fcn ba\u015f\u0131ndaki K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz sevkiyat aksamalar\u0131nda benzer prompt-month spread\u2019leri birka\u00e7 dolar geni\u015flemi\u015fti; \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu e\u011filimin tekrarlanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz, k\u00fcresel stoklar\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 seyriyle destekleniyor. \u00d6zellikle ABD Stratejik Petrol Rezervi\u2019nin (SPR) yakla\u015f\u0131k 375 milyon varil ile tarihsel olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde kalmas\u0131, arz \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 koruma sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Ayn\u0131 zamanda OPEC+, s\u0131k\u0131 \u00fcretim k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 aksamalar\u0131 telafi edecek haz\u0131r \u201cyedek kapasite\u201d olduk\u00e7a s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. Bu tamponun zay\u0131f olmas\u0131, k\u0131smen ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 bir ablukada dahi WTI\u2019\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde 90 dolara ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu tablonun bar\u0131nd\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek riskleri y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, do\u011frudan vadeli i\u015flem pozisyonlar\u0131nda disiplinli stop-loss seviyeleri kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 ve sermayenin korunmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. \u201cParan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money) call opsiyonlar\u0131 ise a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskini s\u0131n\u0131rlarken, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 halinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n potansiyeli s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in tercih etti\u011fimiz ara\u00e7 olmaya devam ediyor. Ayr\u0131ca bu \u00c7ar\u015famba a\u00e7\u0131klanacak EIA stok raporu yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli; beklentinin \u00fczerinde bir ham petrol stok \u00e7ekili\u015fi (draw), yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmeyi muhtemelen h\u0131zland\u0131racakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019de alarm: Husiler Suudi Arabistan\u2019a deniz ablukas\u0131 ilan etti. Haberle WTI 81,35 dolara s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. Oynakl\u0131k artabilir; opsiyonlar, takvim spreadleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. SPR d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, OPEC+ tamponu zay\u0131f.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50171,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51277","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t