Commerzbank\u2019\u0131n faiz ekibi, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc yap\u0131lacak Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve zay\u0131flayan b\u00fcy\u00fcme sinyalleri taraf\u0131ndan \u015fekillenece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Temmuz\u2019da bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n fiilen g\u00fcndem d\u0131\u015f\u0131 oldu\u011fu, piyasalar\u0131n ise Eyl\u00fcl i\u00e7in 25 baz puanl\u0131k ad\u0131m\u0131 (yakla\u015f\u0131k +24bp) tamamen fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Christine Lagarde\u2019\u0131n net bir y\u00f6nlendirme vermeden enflasyon risklerine odaklanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Ard\u0131ndan dikkatler Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak \u00f6nc\u00fc (flash) Euro B\u00f6lgesi PMI verilerine \u00e7evriliyor; banka bu verilerin k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir toparlanmaya ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerinde s\u00fcregelen r\u00fczg\u00e2rlara i\u015faret edece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. ECB karar\u0131n\u0131 gelecek hafta Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 izlerken, yak\u0131n vadede oda\u011f\u0131n merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131 ile zay\u0131flayan aktivite verileri aras\u0131ndaki dengeyi nas\u0131l kuraca\u011f\u0131na kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 vurgulan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fckselen enerji maliyetleri Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonu \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131rken, bu Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc ECB toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz. Brent petrol\u00fcn \u015fu anda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 83 dolar civar\u0131nda seyretmesi ve son bir ayda %6 y\u00fckselmesi, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden \u00f6nemli bir ba\u015f a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 haline getiriyor. Bu hafta bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcndemde olmasa da, piyasalar Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in 24 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u015fimdiden fiyatlam\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
ECB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Christine Lagarde\u2019\u0131n, bankay\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na kilitlemeden bu enflasyon risklerinin alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izmesini bekliyoruz. Bu temkinli duru\u015fun arka plan\u0131nda, Euro B\u00f6lgesi ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin son derece k\u0131r\u0131lgan kalmas\u0131 bulunuyor; imalat PMI\u2019\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 45,8 seviyesinde daralma b\u00f6lgesinde kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyon ile yava\u015flayan ekonomi aras\u0131nda denge arad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu belirsizli\u011fi y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u015fahin alg\u0131da ya\u015fanabilecek ani kaymalara kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli faiz opsiyonlar\u0131na odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Piyasan\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tamamen fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Euribor vadeli i\u015flem opsiyonlar\u0131nda i\u015flem yapmak hatal\u0131 fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f primleri yakalamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir. Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI verisi beklentiden zay\u0131f gelirse, faiz patikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentilerde sert bir geri \u00e7ekilme g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir; bu da put opsiyonlar\u0131 i\u00e7in cazip bir f\u0131rsat sunabilir.<\/p>\n
FX t\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131nda ise Euro ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 opsiyonlara, \u00f6zellikle de EUR\/USD straddle stratejilerine bak\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; ama\u00e7 beklenen fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131ndan faydalanmak. Fed\u2019in de gelecek hafta toplanacak olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, her iki merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n rotas\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdi\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemde kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 muhtemel. Do\u011frudan vadeli i\u015flemler yerine opsiyon kullan\u0131m\u0131, Lagarde\u2019\u0131n bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n tetikleyebilece\u011fi sert hareketlerden yararlan\u0131rken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrol 83 dolara t\u0131rmand\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcme sinyalleri zay\u0131f: ECB Per\u015fembe temkinli kalabilir. Temmuz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yok, Eyl\u00fcl 25bp fiyatland\u0131. Lagarde enflasyon risklerine vurgu yapacak. Cuma PMI k\u0131r\u0131lgan toparlanmay\u0131 test edecek. Opsiyonlarla oynakl\u0131k f\u0131rsat\u0131 g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50158,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51276","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t