ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki gerilimin, ge\u00e7ici bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6kmesinin ard\u0131ndan t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 ve Ukrayna ile Rusya aras\u0131ndaki sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n \u015fiddetlenmesi, ge\u00e7en hafta enerji piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 itti; ham petrol, rafine \u00fcr\u00fcnler, do\u011fal gaz ve Avrupa elektri\u011fi y\u00fckseldi. Brent, 13 Temmuz\u2019da 83 $\/varil seviyesinden 88 $\/varile \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; gecelik i\u015flemlerde k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 90 $\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine t\u0131rmanarak haziran ortas\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra geri \u00e7ekildi. WTI ise ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde 78 $\u2019dan 82 $\/varile y\u00fckseldi; yakla\u015f\u0131k %5 art\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n
Yeniden fiyatlama; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz \u00fczerinden sevkiyatta aksamalar, CPC terminalindeki durdurma ve k\u00fcresel stoklar\u0131n rekor d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde kalmas\u0131yla arz bulunabilirli\u011fine dair tazelenen endi\u015felerle ili\u015fkilendirildi; dizel piyasalar\u0131 rekor s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131k sinyali veriyor. ICE gasoil crack spread\u2019i 65 $\/varile geni\u015fledi ve ge\u00e7en hafta art arda \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcn rekor y\u00fcksek seviyede kapand\u0131; ABD 3-2-1 crack spread\u2019i de 70 $\/varil ile rekor seviyeye ula\u015ft\u0131. Hindistan dizel ihracat vergisini litre ba\u015f\u0131na 15,5 rupi\u2019ye, jet yak\u0131t\u0131 ihracat vergisini litre ba\u015f\u0131na 14,5 rupi\u2019ye y\u00fckseltti; ABD perakende benzin fiyat\u0131 yeniden galon ba\u015f\u0131na 4 $\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019deki sevkiyat krizi nedeniyle Brent\u2019in 88 $\u2019a s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 ve WTI\u2019\u0131n 82 $\u2019\u0131 g\u00f6rmesinin ard\u0131ndan, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda s\u00fcrecek yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmalar\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Do\u011frudan vadeli kontrat almak yerine, olas\u0131 ani gerilim d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken ek y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in Brent\u2019te uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, bu \u00f6l\u00e7ekteki arz tarafl\u0131 \u015foklar ima edilen volatilitede h\u0131zl\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ramalara yol a\u00e7ar; erken uyguland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda prim al\u0131m\u0131na dayal\u0131 stratejileri olduk\u00e7a k\u00e2rl\u0131 hale getirir.<\/p>\n
Varil ba\u015f\u0131na 70 $\u2019l\u0131k rekor ABD 3-2-1 crack spread\u2019i ve ICE gasoil\u2019de 65 $ seviyesi, yak\u0131n zamanda gev\u015femesini beklemedi\u011fimiz a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 bir s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, bu rafine \u00fcr\u00fcn s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in \u0131s\u0131tma ya\u011f\u0131 ve gasoil vadeli i\u015flemlerinde bo\u011fa call spread\u2019lerine bakmal\u0131. Bu strateji, rafinaj kapasitesi k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131n dizel crack\u2019lerini tarihi zirvelere ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve spread i\u015flemcilerine \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek getiriler sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 2022 ortas\u0131ndaki i\u015flem \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fclerini yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel stoklar \u015fu anda \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131k dip seviyelere yak\u0131n seyretti\u011fi i\u00e7in \u2014OECD ticari stoklar\u0131n\u0131n be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n %8\u2019den fazla alt\u0131na indi\u011fi 2022 enerji krizine benzer \u015fekilde\u2014 vadeli e\u011frinin belirgin bi\u00e7imde backwardation\u2019da kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. En yak\u0131n vade takvim spread\u2019lerinde i\u015flem yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131; \u00f6zellikle prompt ay\u0131n al\u0131n\u0131p ikinci ay\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; b\u00f6ylece an\u0131nda teslimat priminden faydalan\u0131labilir. Hindistan\u2019\u0131n litre ba\u015f\u0131na 15,5 rupi\u2019ye ihracat vergilerini art\u0131rma karar\u0131, uluslararas\u0131 piyasalar\u0131 fiziksel prompt arzdan mahrum b\u0131rakaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in bu backwardation stratejisini g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Kurumsal korunma (hedge) yapanlar i\u00e7in, perakende fiyatlar mevcut galon ba\u015f\u0131na 4 $ seviyesinin daha da \u00fczerine t\u0131rmanmadan dizel ve jet yak\u0131t\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n derhal sabitlenmesini kuvvetle \u00f6neriyoruz. S\u0131f\u0131r maliyetli collar\u2019lar, daha fazla jeopolitik s\u0131\u00e7ramaya kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flarken yak\u0131t tedarikinin azami maliyetini s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rmaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir. Tetikte kalmak gerekiyor; zira Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da olas\u0131 ani bir diplomatik at\u0131l\u0131m, ham petrol g\u00f6stergelerinde h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde %10 ila %15\u2019lik sert bir geri \u00e7ekilmeyi tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n