Hindistan rupisi, pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ge\u00e7 saatlerde ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde zay\u0131flad\u0131; kal\u0131c\u0131 yabanc\u0131 fon \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n para birimi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131yla USD\/INR 96,46 civar\u0131nda seyretti. Parite, yurt i\u00e7i petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcn i\u00e7indeki erken s\u0131\u00e7ramadan geri gelmesine ra\u011fmen toparlanmakta zorland\u0131: 20 Temmuz vadeli MCX ham petrol kontrat\u0131, a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fta %2,6 y\u00fckselerek 8.150 rupi civar\u0131na (bir aydan uzun s\u00fcrenin en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seviyesi) \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 7.950 rupi civar\u0131nda yatay kald\u0131. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131, k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte birinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda, iki tankere sald\u0131r\u0131 yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberler ve sevkiyat riskine y\u00f6nelik s\u00fcregelen endi\u015feler sonras\u0131 bu b\u00f6lgede kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yabanc\u0131 Kurumsal Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar (FII), sat\u0131\u015f serisini \u00fcst \u00fcste be\u015finci seansa ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; ge\u00e7en hafta boyunca t\u00fcm i\u015flem g\u00fcnlerinde toplam 9.119,76 crore rupi tutar\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi. ABD\u2019de dolar endeksi, faiz beklentilerinin netle\u015fmesiyle 100,70 civar\u0131na geriledi; CME FedWatch\u2019a g\u00f6re, Haziran T\u00dcFE\u2019nin daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 gelmesinin ard\u0131ndan temmuzda Fed\u2019in faizi sabit tutma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7en haftaki %65,8\u2019den %85,6\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi. Teknik tarafta USD\/INR 96,44 civar\u0131nda seyrederken 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA olan 95,66\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131; RSI 64,31 d\u00fczeyinde bulunurken, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir sonraki referans 97,10\u2019daki rekor seviye olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flemler yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, USD\/INR paritesinde s\u00fcren g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131; al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alarak veya bo\u011fa call spread stratejileri uygulayarak pozisyonlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Kur, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcstel hareketli ortalamas\u0131 olan 95,66\u2019n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde tutunuyor ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 97,10 seviyesini test etmeye haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentum, g\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI\u2019\u0131n 64,31 seviyesinde olmas\u0131yla teknik olarak da destekleniyor; bu da dolar\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine ge\u00e7meden \u00f6nce y\u00fckseli\u015f i\u00e7in h\u00e2l\u00e2 alan\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Yabanc\u0131 kurumsal yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ge\u00e7en hafta 9.119,76 crore rupi tutar\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131 nedeniyle, hisse senedi portf\u00f6ylerinin Nifty sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131yla hedge edilmesini tavsiye ediyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131\u2014Ekim 2024\u2019te Hint hisse senetlerinden \u00e7ekilen rekor 94.000 crore rupi gibi\u2014yurt i\u00e7i piyasalardaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler ve rupide de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde korelasyon g\u00f6sterir. Koruyucu put al\u0131m\u0131, k\u00fcresel fonlar\u0131n geli\u015fen piyasalardan \u00e7\u0131kmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi halinde ilave a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Enerji piyasalar\u0131nda, MCX ham petrol kontratlar\u0131nda iron condor gibi bant i\u00e7i (range-bound) opsiyon stratejileriyle i\u015flem yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilim petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine %2,6 y\u00fckselterek 8.150 rupi seviyesine ta\u015f\u0131sa da, diplomatik ate\u015fkes giri\u015fimleri fiyatlar\u0131 h\u0131zla 7.950 rupiye geri \u00e7ekti. N\u00f6tr opsiyon stratejileri kullanmak, gereksiz y\u00f6nsel risk almadan y\u00fcksek ima edilen volatiliteden faydalanmam\u0131za yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, gelecek haftaki Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde volatil d\u00f6viz \u00e7iftlerine maruziyetin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in haz\u0131rl\u0131k yap\u0131lmal\u0131. Fed\u2019in faizleri sabit tutma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %85,6 olsa da, ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmede (forward guidance) gelebilecek herhangi bir s\u00fcrpriz, h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 100,70 seviyesinde bulunan ABD Dolar Endeksi \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc etki yaratabilir. Mevcut USD\/INR uzun pozisyonlar\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes seviyeleri belirlemek, a\u00e7\u0131klama \u00f6ncesinde kazan\u0131mlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 korumaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n