{"id":51257,"date":"2026-07-20T11:29:12","date_gmt":"2026-07-20T11:29:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/euro-dolarin-gerilemesiyle-11450-civarinda-dengelendi-yatirimcilar-orta-doguda-artan-gerilimler-golgesinde-ecb-kararina-odaklandi\/"},"modified":"2026-07-20T11:29:12","modified_gmt":"2026-07-20T11:29:12","slug":"euro-dolarin-gerilemesiyle-11450-civarinda-dengelendi-yatirimcilar-orta-doguda-artan-gerilimler-golgesinde-ecb-kararina-odaklandi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/euro-dolarin-gerilemesiyle-11450-civarinda-dengelendi-yatirimcilar-orta-doguda-artan-gerilimler-golgesinde-ecb-kararina-odaklandi\/","title":{"rendered":"Euro, dolar\u0131n gerilemesiyle 1,1450 civar\u0131nda dengelendi; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da artan gerilimler g\u00f6lgesinde ECB karar\u0131na odakland\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Euro, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla Pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc Avrupa seans\u0131nda 1,1450 civar\u0131nda erken toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 korudu. Bu, piyasalar\u0131n Federal Rezerv\u2019in Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizleri b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde sabit b\u0131rakmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemesine ra\u011fmen ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) haberin yaz\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131rada %0,1 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle yakla\u015f\u0131k 100,65 seviyesindeydi. CME FedWatch fiyatlamas\u0131, Haziran ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verisinin beklentiden zay\u0131f gelmesinin ard\u0131ndan, Temmuz\u2019da de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmama olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7en haftaki %65,8\u2019den %85,6\u2019ya y\u00fckseltti.<\/p>\n\n<p>EUR\/USD\u2019deki daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyre ra\u011fmen, ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (CENTCOM) \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik dokuzuncu ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k gece sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 tamamlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bu ad\u0131m\u0131 en az \u00fc\u00e7 ABD askerinin \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fclmesine misilleme olarak nitelendirdi\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan artan jeopolitik gerilimler nedeniyle ortak para birimi benzerlerine k\u0131yasla geride kald\u0131. G\u00f6zler \u015fimdi Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) karar\u0131na \u00e7evrildi. Haziran\u2019daki 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan faizlerin korunmas\u0131 beklenirken, politika metni ve Christine Lagarde\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlenecek. ECB\u2019nin mevduat imk\u00e2n\u0131 faizi y\u0131lda planl\u0131 sekiz toplant\u0131da belirleniyor; bir sonraki a\u00e7\u0131klama Per\u015fembe 23 Temmuz 2026 12:15\u2019te, piyasa beklentisi %2,25 ve \u00f6nceki veri %2,25.<\/p>\n\n<h3>ECB Politika Toplant\u0131s\u0131 ve Euro Volatilite Stratejileri<\/h3>\n\n<p>Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 23 Temmuz\u2019daki toplant\u0131s\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131rken, EUR\/USD volatilitesinin 1,1450 civar\u0131ndaki mevcut sakin banttan s\u0131\u00e7rama yapmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Tarihsel olarak Euro\u2019da bir haftal\u0131k ima edilen volatilite, b\u00fcy\u00fck ECB politika kararlar\u0131 \u00f6ncesindeki g\u00fcnlerde s\u0131kl\u0131kla %1,5 ila %2 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterir. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, Ba\u015fkan Christine Lagarde konu\u015fmadan \u00f6nce beklenen fiyat hareketinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli straddle al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n<h3>Jeopolitik Riskler ve Dolarda G\u00fcvenli Liman Talebi<\/h3>\n\n<p>Ayn\u0131 zamanda, \u00f6zellikle \u0130ran\u2019daki son ABD askeri sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131yla birlikte Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da artan jeopolitik gerilimleri g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek gerekir. Ani t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f d\u00f6nemlerinde ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) tarihsel olarak g\u00fcvenli liman i\u015flevi g\u00f6r\u00fcr ve mevcut 100,65 seviyesi gibi desteklerden s\u0131kl\u0131kla sert tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fleri sergiler. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, olas\u0131 ani bir riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f (risk-off) d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in Euro uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) EUR\/USD put opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak hedge etmelidir.<\/p>\n\n<p>Bu arada CME FedWatch arac\u0131, Federal Rezerv\u2019in bu ay\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmeme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek, %85,6 olarak g\u00f6steriyor. Bu y\u00fcksek kesinlik ortam\u0131, k\u0131sa vadeli Hazine opsiyonlar\u0131nda veya USD\u2019ye ba\u011fl\u0131 d\u00f6viz paritelerinde prim satarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu strateji, ABD enflasyon verileri Fed\u2019i mevcut \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d patikas\u0131nda tuttu\u011fu s\u00fcrece, zaman de\u011feri erimesinden (time-decay) istikrarl\u0131 gelir toplamaya olanak sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/trade-now\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Euro 1,1450\u2019de tutunuyor: DXY zay\u0131flarken Fed\u2019in Temmuz\u2019da pas ge\u00e7me olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %85,6\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Jeopolitik risk Euro\u2019yu bask\u0131l\u0131yor; g\u00f6zler 23 Temmuz ECB\u2019de, volatilite\/opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50069,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51257","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51257","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51257"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51257\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50069"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51257"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51257"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51257"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}