EUR\/CAD k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 b\u00f6lgede kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc ancak kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayarak Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa seans\u0131n\u0131n erken saatlerinde 1,6030 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Euro, Almanya\u2019n\u0131n son \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (\u00dcFE) verisinin ard\u0131ndan zay\u0131flad\u0131. Almanya \u00dcFE, Haziran\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %1,8 artt\u0131 ve \u00fcretici enflasyonunda \u00fc\u00e7 ayd\u0131r s\u00fcren y\u00fckseli\u015fi uzatt\u0131; ancak May\u0131s\u2019taki %2,2 seviyesinden gerileyerek May\u0131s 2023\u2019ten bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen en h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan h\u0131z kesti. Ayl\u0131k bazda ise fiyatlar %0,3 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bu, May\u0131s\u2019taki %0,3\u2019l\u00fck art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tersine \u00e7evirirken \u015eubat\u2019tan bu yana ilk ayl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret etti ve piyasadaki %0,2\u2019lik gerileme beklentisinin de bir miktar alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Kanada dolar\u0131, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndan destek buldu; Kanada\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir ham petrol ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olmas\u0131 nedeniyle bu durum parite \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131. ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla petrol Temmuz ay\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k %20 y\u00fckseldi. Ge\u00e7ici bar\u0131\u015f d\u00fczenlemesinin bozulmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ablukay\u0131 yeniden ba\u015flatt\u0131, Tahran ise H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. ABD, \u0130ran hedeflerine dokuzuncu gece \u00fcst \u00fcste sald\u0131r\u0131 d\u00fczenlerken, \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer ate\u015fkesin fiilen terk edildi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi; bu da Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n sekteye u\u011frayabilece\u011fine dair endi\u015feleri art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda EUR\/CAD paritesinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Almanya \u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda May\u0131s\u2019taki %2,2 zirvesinden %1,8\u2019e gerilemesi, Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00fcretici enflasyonunun beklenenden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 so\u011fudu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Ayl\u0131k bazda %0,3\u2019l\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle belirginle\u015fen bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kayma, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n agresif faiz seviyelerini koruma motivasyonunu azaltarak Euro\u2019yu zay\u0131flat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n, h\u0131zla y\u00fckselen ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 sayesinde y\u00fcksek dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6stermesini bekliyoruz. Kanada\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck 4 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde petrol ihra\u00e7 etmesi nedeniyle para birimi, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir jeopolitik risk primi ile do\u011frudan destekleniyor. Jeopolitik t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n \u015fiddetlenmesiyle k\u00fcresel petrol g\u00f6stergelerini yaln\u0131zca bu ay yakla\u015f\u0131k %20 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnya petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %20\u2019sinden fazlas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u201cdarbo\u011faz\u201d niteli\u011finde olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresinde ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla enerji piyasalar\u0131 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynakl\u0131kla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Arz hatlar\u0131n\u0131n tehdit alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli yakalamak i\u00e7in Brent veya WTI ham petrolde uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Alternatif olarak yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki sert ve ani fiyat hareketlerinden faydalanmak amac\u0131yla long straddle gibi volatilite stratejilerine ba\u015fvurabilir.<\/p>\n
EUR\/CAD paritesi \u00f6zelinde ise, vadesi A\u011fustos sonuna denk gelen \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu strateji, zay\u0131flayan Euro ile emtia destekli Kanada Dolar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n geni\u015flemesinden faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flarken, \u00f6denen prim riskiyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir yap\u0131 sunar. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrse, 1,5800 civar\u0131ndaki destek seviyeleri hedeflenebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EUR\/CAD 1,6030\u2019da bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda: Almanya \u00dcFE\u2019sindeki so\u011fuma euroyu zay\u0131flat\u0131rken, \u0130ran gerilimiyle %20 s\u0131\u00e7rayan petrol CAD\u2019i destekliyor. Strateji: A\u011fustos OTM put; hedef 1,5800.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50030,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51255","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t