EUR\/USD Opsiyon G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc: Kritik Direncin Alt\u0131nda Defansif Stratejiler<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,1470 seviyesindeki kritik direncin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmakta zorlanmas\u0131, opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in defansif pozisyon kurmak ad\u0131na \u00f6nemli bir f\u0131rsat sunuyor. Parite 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n (SMA) alt\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rlan\u0131rken, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (OTM) call opsiyonu sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 veya bear call spread al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu strateji, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu d\u00f6nemde \u00fcstteki diren\u00e7ten faydalan\u0131rken prim toplamam\u0131za imk\u00e2n verir.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimler h\u0131zla t\u0131rman\u0131yor; bu t\u00fcr d\u00f6nemler tarihsel olarak sermayeyi ABD Dolar\u0131 gibi g\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nlendiriyor. Tarihsel veriler, petrol \u00fcreten b\u00f6lgelerdeki b\u00fcy\u00fck jeopolitik \u015foklar\u0131n ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni tek bir hafta i\u00e7inde %1,5-%2 y\u00fckseltebildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n Euro \u00fczerinde ilave a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; bu da 1,1358 seviyesini hedefleyen put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik ve Enerji Riskleri G\u00f6lgesinde Euro\u2019nun K\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar\u0131<\/p>\n
\u015eahin bir Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in piyasay\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131yor olsa da, yenilenen enerji arz\u0131 tehditleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda olas\u0131 ge\u00e7i\u015f blokajlar\u0131 g\u00fcndemdeyken enerji fiyatlar\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7rayabilir ve bu durum Avrupa ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir. Ekonomik yava\u015flaman\u0131n, ilerideki faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flayabilece\u011fi fayday\u0131 g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Euro\u2019daki toparlanmay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD, g\u00fcnl\u00fck 7,5 trilyon dolarl\u0131k dev k\u00fcresel d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %30\u2019unu temsil etti\u011finden, t\u00fcrev pozisyonlarda giri\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek likidite sunuyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ani piyasa kaymalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131k yaparken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak ad\u0131na, 1,1358\u2019deki alt Bollinger Band\u0131\u2019na do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in 1,1400 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131na odaklanmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa seans\u0131n\u0131n erken saatlerinde, ECB\u2019den gelen \u015fahin tonun ard\u0131ndan 1,1445 civar\u0131nda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrederken 1,1450\u2019ye do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi. Reuters, ECB\u2019nin Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fini, buna kar\u015f\u0131n artan enerji maliyetlerinin enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rma riski nedeniyle piyasalar\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 aktard\u0131. Jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler de odaktayd\u0131: Bloomberg, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik dokuzuncu gece sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fini; \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu\u2019nun ise ABD\u2019nin eylemleri s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n petrokimya sevkiyatlar\u0131 veya herhangi bir petrol ve gaz ge\u00e7i\u015fi i\u00e7in g\u00fcvenli olmayaca\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu\u011funu bildirdi.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan parite 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve yak\u0131n vadeli e\u011filim d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde (bearish) korunuyor. Fiyat \u00fcst Bollinger Band\u0131\u2019n\u0131n hemen alt\u0131nda seyrederken, orta bant yak\u0131n destek sa\u011flad\u0131; 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) ise 50 e\u015fik seviyesinin alt\u0131nda, 48 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Diren\u00e7 1,1470 yak\u0131n\u0131nda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tavan 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019daki 1,1585 civar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; destek seviyeleri 1,1415 ve 1,1358 olarak belirtiliyor. Euro\u2019nun daha geni\u015f arka plan\u0131nda; 20 Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00fclkesindeki rol\u00fc ve 2022\u2019de k\u00fcresel FX i\u015flem hacmindeki %31\u2019lik pay\u0131 ile g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama 2,2 trilyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki i\u015flem hacmi yer al\u0131yor. EUR\/USD, d\u00f6viz i\u015flemlerinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %30\u2019unu olu\u015ftururken, EUR\/JPY %4, EUR\/GBP %3 ve EUR\/AUD %2 paya sahip. ECB y\u0131lda sekiz kez toplan\u0131yor ve HICP \u00fczerinden %2 enflasyon hedefi benimsiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n