Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki yumu\u015faman\u0131n destek sa\u011flamas\u0131yla Asya\u2019da g\u00fcn\u00fcn erken saatlerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften toparlanarak 3.983-3.982 dolar band\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ayl\u0131k dip seviyeden ba\u015flayan tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Arka plan ise karma\u015f\u0131k. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 jeopolitik risk primini beslerken, ABD\u2019de daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentiler dolar\u0131 destekliyor ve faiz getirisi olmayan metalde kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f alan\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6nemli bir ABD verisi bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00f6n a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan FOMC \u00fcyelerinden gelebilecek a\u00e7\u0131klamalar ve yeni jeopolitik man\u015fetler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
ABD, Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 art arda dokuzuncu gece sald\u0131r\u0131 d\u00fczenledi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM), operasyonun H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131larda kullan\u0131lan \u0130ran kabiliyetlerini hedef ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. \u0130ran balistik f\u00fczeler ve tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc sald\u0131r\u0131 droneleriyle kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verirken, Bahreyn, \u00dcrd\u00fcn, Kuveyt ve Irak yeni bir sald\u0131r\u0131 dalgas\u0131 raporlad\u0131. IRGC\u2019nin gemi trafi\u011fini k\u0131s\u0131tlamaya d\u00f6n\u00fck hamleleri de petrol\u00fc 12 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ta\u015f\u0131yarak enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131; piyasalar 2026\u2019da Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 riskini fiyatl\u0131yor. Teknik tarafta alt\u0131n, al\u00e7alan kanal i\u00e7inde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.495,79 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda. Diren\u00e7 4.056,51 dolar civar\u0131nda; MACD s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 pozitif olsa da RSI 50\u2019nin alt\u0131nda, destek ise 3.662,99 dolar yak\u0131n\u0131nda bulunuyor.<\/p>\n\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n 3.983 dolar seviyesine do\u011fru k\u0131r\u0131lgan toparlanmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n son derece temkinli kalmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Daha zay\u0131f ABD Dolar\u0131 k\u0131sa vadede bir miktar rahatlama sa\u011flasa da, XAU\/USD i\u00e7in genel teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm belirgin \u015fekilde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc. Tarihsel olarak, daha geni\u015f bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kanal\u0131ndaki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fleri, bask\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 trend yeniden devreye girmeden \u00f6nce aceleci al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 \u00e7o\u011fu zaman tuza\u011fa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr.<\/p>\n\n
Orta Do\u011fu krizinin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki sevkiyat aksakl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc jeopolitik risk priminin k\u0131sa vadede sert dalgalanmalar\u0131 tetiklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Ancak bu gerilimler petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 itiyor; bu durum tarihsel olarak enflasyonu kat\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r ve merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131 faiz art\u0131rmaya zorlar. 2022\u2019deki enflasyon dalgas\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda, agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 alt\u0131n\u0131 Mart zirvesinden %20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmi\u015fti; yo\u011fun jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara ra\u011fmen y\u00fcksek faizlerin \u00e7o\u011fu zaman g\u00fcvenli liman talebinin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ti\u011fini g\u00f6stermi\u015fti.<\/p>\n\n
Opsiyon ve vadeli i\u015flem (futures) taraf\u0131nda, alt\u0131n 4.056 dolar ana diren\u00e7 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015flerin sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmesine odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. De\u011ferli metal h\u00e2len 4.495 dolardaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu da geni\u015f piyasa resminde sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n kontrol\u00fc elinde tuttu\u011funu teyit ediyor. Call opsiyonu sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131, devam eden askeri sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n yukar\u0131 itti\u011fi ima edilen volatilitedeki (implied volatility) mevcut s\u0131\u00e7ramadan faydalanabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Al\u00e7alan kanal\u0131n \u00fcst band\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 h\u00e2linde, alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 3.662 dolar civar\u0131ndaki ana destek b\u00f6lgesine yeniden geri \u00e7ekilebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 50\u2019nin alt\u0131nda negatif b\u00f6lgede kalmaya devam ederken, momentum kal\u0131c\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 desteklemiyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli ve uzun vadeli trend takip pozisyonlar\u0131 almadan \u00f6nce kanal s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131ndan birinin net bi\u00e7imde k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131p k\u0131r\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 izlemeleri gerekir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n