USD\/CHF, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde 0,8070 civar\u0131nda seyretti ve \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019nin Haziran d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi verisi \u00f6ncesinde Franken\u2019in destek bulmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen \u00fcst \u00fcste ikinci g\u00fcn y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 (SNB), orta vadeli enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn genel hatlar\u0131yla de\u011fi\u015fmedi\u011fini belirtirken, tutanaklar jeopolitik gerilimlerin k\u0131sa vadeli enflasyon risklerini art\u0131rmas\u0131yla daha temkinli bir duru\u015fa i\u015faret etti. SNB ayr\u0131ca, paran\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferlenmesini \u00f6nlemek ve fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 korumak amac\u0131yla d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131na m\u00fcdahaleye haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu yineledi.<\/p>\n
Paritenin tonu, Washington\u2019un dokuzuncu gece \u00fcst \u00fcste sald\u0131r\u0131lar d\u00fczenlemesi ve \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililerin ate\u015fkesin fiilen \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6ylemesiyle ABD\u2013\u0130ran geriliminin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n zay\u0131flayan ABD Dolar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan belirlendi; bu durum, kilit b\u00f6lgesel su yollar\u0131 \u00fczerinden olas\u0131 aksamalara y\u00f6nelik riskleri art\u0131rd\u0131. Piyasalar, Fed\u2019in bir sonraki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; ancak CME FedWatch fiyatlamas\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %61,4 olarak g\u00f6steriyor. Ayr\u0131 olarak, Fed ileti\u015fimine ili\u015fkin g\u00f6stergeler g\u00fc\u00e7lendi: Hammack i\u00e7in FXS Speechtracker skoru 7,2\/10 ile 6,6\/10\u2019luk tarihsel ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015firken, FXS Fed Sentiment Index 2,06 puan artarak 128,64\u2019e y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
\u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131\u2019n\u0131, \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019nin yakla\u015fan d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi verisi \u00f6ncesinde 0,8070 gibi kritik bir seviye yak\u0131n\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ba\u011flam\u0131nda yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fme ve enerji koridorlar\u0131nda kesinti tehdidi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u00fcvenli liman talebinin Frang\u2019\u0131 y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131kta tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, \u00f6zellikle SNB\u2019nin para birimi \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kazan\u0131rsa m\u00fcdahaleye haz\u0131r olmas\u0131 nedeniyle ani y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimlerine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda, belirgin bir y\u00f6n se\u00e7meden ani hareketleri yakalamak i\u00e7in USD\/CHF \u00fczerinde opsiyon straddle\u2019lar\u0131 veya k\u0131sa vadeli volatilite stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel veriler, \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019nin ticaret fazlalar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131kl\u0131kla yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrpriz yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; son d\u00f6nemde ayl\u0131k ortalama fazlan\u0131n 4 milyar CHF\u2019nin \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fini ve bunun \u00e7o\u011fu zaman an\u0131nda Frank al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 tetikledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ayr\u0131ca Euro B\u00f6lgesi g\u00f6stergelerini izlemeleri gerekiyor; zira Euro ile \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki korelasyon tarihsel olarak %90\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyrediyor.<\/p>\n
Paritenin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda, ABD Dolar\u0131 giderek daha \u015fahin bir Fed s\u00f6yleminden temel destek buluyor. Fed\u2019in bir sonraki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131 beklenmekle birlikte, vadeli piyasalar Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de %61,4 olas\u0131l\u0131kla faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Yakla\u015fan ABD enflasyon verilerinin beklentileri a\u015fmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi halinde, bu \u015fahin kaymaya kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n Dolar \u00fczerine al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n