G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f (XAG\/USD) ikinci g\u00fcn\u00fcnde de y\u00fckseldi; Asya saatlerinde 56,80 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken 57,00 dolara do\u011fru ilerliyordu. Y\u00fckseli\u015f, ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 itmesiyle geldi; bu durum, faiz getirisi olmayan bir varl\u0131k \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilecek enflasyon endi\u015felerini yeniden canland\u0131rd\u0131. Washington, \u0130ran hedeflerine dokuzuncu gece \u00fcst \u00fcste sald\u0131r\u0131 d\u00fczenledi; bunun ard\u0131ndan Tahran ate\u015fkesin fiilen rafa kalkt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi ve kilit b\u00f6lgesel su yollar\u0131nda kesinti riskini art\u0131rd\u0131. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fma Bahreyn, \u00dcrd\u00fcn, Kuveyt ve Irak\u2019a yay\u0131ld\u0131; Bahreyn\u2019de hava sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 sirenlerinin \u00e7ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildirildi; ABD ordusu da iki g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc bir personelin hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybetti\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Kuveyt Petroleum Corp., cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n petrol tesislerinden birini vurdu\u011funu belirtirken; k\u00f6pr\u00fcler, altyap\u0131 hizmetleri ve liman altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n da hedef al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 ABD para politikas\u0131 beklentilerinde de. Fed\u2019in bir sonraki toplant\u0131da faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131 genel beklenti olsa da, CME FedWatch Tool eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %61,4 olarak g\u00f6steriyor. Cleveland Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Beth Hammack enflasyonun kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korudu\u011funu s\u00f6ylerken; FXS Speechtracker skoru 7,2\/10 ile 6,6\/10\u2019luk tarihsel ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. FXS Fed Duyarl\u0131l\u0131k Endeksi 2,06 puan artarak 128,64\u2019e y\u00fckseldi ve 100\u2019l\u00fck n\u00f6tr seviyenin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 g\u00fcvenli liman talebini art\u0131r\u0131rken g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn 57,00 dolar seviyesine yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ancak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ayn\u0131 zamanda k\u00fcresel enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 itiyor; Brent petrol yak\u0131n zamanda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 92 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n, jeopolitik risk kaynakl\u0131 g\u00fcvenli liman aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7arp\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 nedeniyle k\u0131sa vadede sert volatiliteye haz\u0131r olmas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik riskler genellikle de\u011ferli metalleri desteklese de, Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fi izlemek gerekiyor. CME FedWatch Tool, eyl\u00fclde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini %61,4\u2019e i\u015faret ediyor; bu oran, enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131\u015fkan kalmas\u0131yla ge\u00e7en ayki %40 seviyesinden y\u00fckseldi. Bu \u015fahin kayma, getiri sunmayan g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fc elde tutmay\u0131 daha maliyetli hale getiriyor; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla 58,00 dolara do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir ralli h\u0131zl\u0131 bir diren\u00e7le kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7eki\u015fme ortam\u0131nda, tek bir y\u00f6n se\u00e7mek yerine y\u00fcksek belirsizlikten yararlanmak i\u00e7in opsiyon stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. XAG\/USD \u00fczerinde uzun straddle kurulmas\u0131, eyl\u00fcl Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131rken fiyat\u0131n her iki y\u00f6nde de sert hareketlerinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flama imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar. De\u011ferli metaller taraf\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite bu ay %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde artt\u0131; bu da opsiyon primlerinin olduk\u00e7a dinamik \u015fekilde fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n\/g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f oran\u0131n\u0131 da izlemek gerekiyor; g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fteki h\u0131zl\u0131 t\u0131rman\u0131\u015fla oran 48\u2019e 1 seviyelerine do\u011fru darald\u0131. K\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131yla g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn end\u00fcstriyel talebi so\u011fursa, bu oran tarihsel ortalamalara do\u011fru h\u0131zla yeniden geni\u015fleyebilir. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in bu, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon al\u0131rken alt\u0131nda uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131mak gibi parite i\u015flemi f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f 57 dolara ko\u015fuyor: Orta Do\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 g\u00fcvenli liman talebini art\u0131r\u0131rken petrol 92 dolar \u00fcst\u00fcnde enflasyon korkular\u0131n\u0131 tazeliyor. Fed\u2019in eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali %61,4; volatilite sertle\u015febilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50128,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51222","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t