GBP\/USD, Bloomberg\u2019e g\u00f6re son iki g\u00fcnde \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc bir ABD\u2019li askerin hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybetti\u011fine dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan piyasalar\u0131n ABD-\u0130ran gerilimini tartt\u0131\u011f\u0131 pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Asya i\u015flemlerinde 1,3450 civar\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6sterdi. Kuzey Irak\u2019ta bir ABD askeri, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclen bir \u0130ran \u0130HA\u2019s\u0131n\u0131n kontroll\u00fc imhas\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda ya\u015fam\u0131n\u0131 yitirirken; ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM), iki ABD askerinin \u00f6ld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve birinin kay\u0131p oldu\u011fu ayr\u0131 bir \u0130ran sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00dcrd\u00fcn\u2019de kimli\u011fi belirlenemeyen kal\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n bulundu\u011funu bildirdi. Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k istihdam raporu da yak\u0131ndan izleniyor.<\/p>\n\n
\u00c7at\u0131\u015fma, askeri tesislerden k\u00f6pr\u00fcler, altyap\u0131 hizmetleri ve liman tesislerine yay\u0131larak, risk i\u015ftah\u0131na duyarl\u0131 para birimlerine\u2014Sterlin\u2019in Dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki seyrine\u2014bask\u0131 yapabilecek daha uzun s\u00fcreli bir Orta Do\u011fu kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015feleri art\u0131rd\u0131. \u00d6te yandan, ABD\u2019de t\u00fcketici ve \u00fcretici enflasyonundaki yumu\u015fama, Fed\u2019in daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentileri so\u011futtu: CME FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re temmuzda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %14\u2019e gerileyerek ge\u00e7en haftaki %25 seviyesinden d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; piyasalar aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar toplam 30 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f fiyatl\u0131yor. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k siyasetinde ise Andy Burnham, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc iktidardaki \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partisi\u2019nin lideri se\u00e7ildi; kamuoyu anketlerindeki gerileme ve yerel se\u00e7im kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Sir Keir Starmer\u2019\u0131n istifas\u0131yla Burnham\u2019\u0131n \u00fclkenin 59. Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 1,3450 yatay seviyesine yak\u0131n seyreden GBP\/USD paritesinde artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ani \u201crisk-off\u201d hareketlerine kar\u015f\u0131 bir korunma (hedge) olarak k\u0131sa vadeli USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Tarihsel veriler, b\u00f6lgedeki benzer jeopolitik gerilimlerin g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rarak ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni g\u00fcnler i\u00e7inde genellikle %1,5 ila %2 y\u00fckseltti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n
Son askeri kay\u0131plar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi derinle\u015firken, altyap\u0131 hasar\u0131n\u0131n Sterlin gibi risk duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek para birimleri \u00fczerinde belirgin bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n potansiyeli yakalarken prim maliyetini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in GBP\/USD\u2019de ay\u0131 (bear) put spread stratejilerini kullanmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n daha da geni\u015flemesi durumunda portf\u00f6yleri korur; zira jeopolitik \u015foklar s\u0131ras\u0131nda CBOE Volatilite Endeksi\u2019nin (VIX) tarihsel olarak ortalama %15 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr.<\/p>\n\n
Sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k istihdam raporu da yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli; \u00f6zellikle de Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta ortalama \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n son \u00e7eyreklerde %4,5 civar\u0131nda yap\u0131\u015fkan seyretti\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde. Beklentilerin \u00fczerinde gelecek bir istihdam verisi, k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir GBP rallisini tetikleyebilir ve paritede daha y\u00fcksek seviyelerden k\u0131sa pozisyon i\u00e7in uygun bir giri\u015f noktas\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir. Bu y\u00fcksek etkili veri \u00f6ncesi risk y\u00f6netimi i\u00e7in 1,3520 civar\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes seviyeleri konulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
CME FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re bu ay Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7en haftaki %25\u2019ten %14\u2019e gerilemesi, \u00e7ok k\u0131sa vadede USD\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rlanabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bir sonraki ana trend olu\u015fmadan \u00f6nce bu bant hareketinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in opsiyon primi zaman de\u011fer kayb\u0131ndan (theta) kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen \u201ciron condor\u201d stratejileri uygulanabilir. Bu sayede piyasan\u0131n karars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan yararlan\u0131l\u0131r; zira yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar toplam yaln\u0131zca 30 baz puanl\u0131k Fed art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Son olarak, Starmer\u2019\u0131n istifas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Andy Burnham\u2019\u0131n Ba\u015fbakanl\u0131\u011fa gelmesiyle Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019taki siyasi de\u011fi\u015fimin fiyatlamalara yans\u0131mas\u0131 gerekiyor. Liderlik ge\u00e7i\u015fleri \u00e7o\u011fu zaman politika belirsizli\u011fi yaratsa da, Sterlin\u2019in tarihsel davran\u0131\u015f\u0131 yeni h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin net mali planlar a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 halinde para birimini ge\u00e7ici olarak istikrara kavu\u015fturabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. G\u00f6revindeki ilk haftalarda Sterlin\u2019e bir risk primi eklenip eklenmedi\u011fine dair sinyaller i\u00e7in Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k tahvil (gilt) getirilerinin izlenmesi gerekir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n