{"id":51214,"date":"2026-07-20T02:59:09","date_gmt":"2026-07-20T02:59:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/orta-dogudaki-gerilimlerin-dolari-desteklemesiyle-eur-usd-11430-yakininda-yatay-gozler-ecb-toplantisinda\/"},"modified":"2026-07-20T02:59:09","modified_gmt":"2026-07-20T02:59:09","slug":"orta-dogudaki-gerilimlerin-dolari-desteklemesiyle-eur-usd-11430-yakininda-yatay-gozler-ecb-toplantisinda","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/orta-dogudaki-gerilimlerin-dolari-desteklemesiyle-eur-usd-11430-yakininda-yatay-gozler-ecb-toplantisinda\/","title":{"rendered":"Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimlerin dolar\u0131 desteklemesiyle EUR\/USD 1,1430 yak\u0131n\u0131nda yatay; g\u00f6zler ECB toplant\u0131s\u0131nda"},"content":{"rendered":"

EUR\/USD haftaya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle ba\u015flad\u0131 ancak kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 derinle\u015ftiremedi; ge\u00e7en \u00e7ar\u015famba kaydedilen yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rt haftan\u0131n zirvesinden \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc seansta geri \u00e7ekilmenin ard\u0131ndan 1,1430 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Hareket, piyasalar\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu krizini izlemesiyle geldi: ABD ordusu \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik \u00fcst \u00fcste dokuzuncu gece sald\u0131r\u0131 d\u00fczenlendi\u011fini bildirirken, b\u00f6lgedeki m\u00fcttefikler pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc yeni bir sald\u0131r\u0131 dalgas\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan risk primi, dolar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman talebiyle desteklenmesine ve euronun bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n

Petrol, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 potansiyel arz kesintisi endi\u015feleri ve ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na deniz ablukas\u0131 uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberlerle 12 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu geli\u015fme, k\u00fcresel enflasyonda yeniden y\u00fckseli\u015f ve daha \u015fahin bir Fed ihtimaline dair kayg\u0131lar\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. G\u00f6zler \u015fimdi, y\u0131ll\u0131k sekiz toplant\u0131l\u0131k takvimin par\u00e7as\u0131 olarak per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc yap\u0131lacak Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) toplant\u0131s\u0131na \u00e7evriliyor; politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n hedefi %2 enflasyon. D\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda euro, 2022\u2019de toplam FX i\u015flem hacminin %31\u2019ini olu\u015ftururken, g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama hacimler 2,2 trilyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeydi ve EUR\/USD t\u00fcm i\u015flemlerin yakla\u015f\u0131k %30\u2019unu temsil etti; EUR\/JPY %4, EUR\/GBP %3 ve EUR\/AUD %2 pay ald\u0131.<\/p>\n

Risk Ortam\u0131 ve \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da t\u0131rmanan gerilimler e\u015fli\u011finde EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,1430 seviyesi etraf\u0131nda seyretmesi nedeniyle t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n son derece temkinli ilerlemesini \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD\u2019nin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131nda art arda geceler boyunca askeri operasyonlar y\u00fcr\u00fctmesiyle, g\u00fcvenli liman talebi h\u0131zla yeniden ABD dolar\u0131na y\u00f6neliyor. Bu kritik deniz yolu g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 21 milyon varil petrol ta\u015f\u0131makta\u2014k\u00fcresel t\u00fcketimin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sine denk geliyor\u2014dolay\u0131s\u0131yla kal\u0131c\u0131 bir aksama, greenback\u2019i desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecektir.<\/p>\n

Opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, Brent petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n kritik diren\u00e7 seviyelerinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kma riskiyle beraber ima edilen volatilitenin (implied volatility) s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Tarihsel olarak bu \u00f6l\u00e7ekte arz \u015foklar\u0131, k\u00fcresel enflasyonda kat\u0131l\u0131k endi\u015felerini tetikler ve Fed\u2019i faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutmaya zorlayabilir. Y\u00f6n konusunda kat\u0131 bir bahis almadan y\u00fckselen volatiliteden faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli straddle veya strangle stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n

ECB Toplant\u0131s\u0131 ve EUR\/USD Pozisyonlanmas\u0131<\/h3>\n

Bu per\u015fembe yap\u0131lacak ECB toplant\u0131s\u0131na da haz\u0131rl\u0131k yap\u0131lmal\u0131; toplant\u0131 Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin para politikas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde etkileyecektir. EUR\/USD paritesi k\u00fcresel d\u00f6viz i\u015flemlerinin neredeyse %30\u2019unu temsil etti\u011finden, ECB\u2019nin ileti\u015fim tonundaki k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck de\u011fi\u015fimler dahi sert pozisyon tasfiyelerine veya ani rallilere yol a\u00e7abilir. ECB\u2019nin beklenmedik \u015fekilde g\u00fcvercin (dovish) bir duru\u015f sergilemesi halinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lmaya kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in mevcut spot pozisyonlar\u0131n koruyucu put opsiyonlar\u0131yla hedge edilmesini tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi EUR\/USD\u2019yi 1,1430\u2019da bask\u0131l\u0131yor: dolar g\u00fcvenli limanla g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken petrol H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riskleriyle zirvede. Enflasyon-Fed kayg\u0131lar\u0131 art\u0131yor; per\u015fembe ECB \u00f6ncesi volatilite ve opsiyon hedge \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51214","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51214","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51214"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51214\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50005"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51214"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51214"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51214"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}