WTI, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya saatlerinde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir fiyat bo\u015flu\u011fuyla a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131 ve varil ba\u015f\u0131na 83,50 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek 83,00 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131, Orta Do\u011fu petrol ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda kesinti endi\u015felerini art\u0131rd\u0131. Ham petrol, ge\u00e7ici bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n bozulmas\u0131, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ablukay\u0131 yeniden devreye almas\u0131 ve Tahran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan temmuzda yakla\u015f\u0131k %20 y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n\n
ABD, \u0130ran hedeflerine dokuzuncu gece \u00fcst \u00fcste sald\u0131r\u0131 d\u00fczenlerken, \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer ate\u015fkesin fiilen terk edildi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fma b\u00f6lge geneline yay\u0131ld\u0131; \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Bahreyn, \u00dcrd\u00fcn, Kuveyt ve Irak\u2019taki hedeflere balistik f\u00fcze ve tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc sald\u0131r\u0131 \u0130HA\u2019lar\u0131 f\u0131rlatmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Bahreyn\u2019de hava sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 sirenleri \u00e7ald\u0131. ABD ordusu, iki g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc personelin \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc bildirirken; k\u00f6pr\u00fcler, altyap\u0131 hizmetleri ve liman tesisleri gibi unsurlar ate\u015f alt\u0131na girdi. Hafta sonu Kuveyt Petrol \u015eirketi (Kuwait Petroleum Corp.), \u0130ran sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc \u015firketin petrol tesislerinden birini vurdu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin y\u00fckselmesiyle WTI\u2019\u0131n 83,50 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektiriyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n k\u00fcresel g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol s\u0131v\u0131lar\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sini olu\u015fturdu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, olas\u0131 ilave ablukalar fiyatlar\u0131 kolayl\u0131kla 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Sert yukar\u0131 hareketlere pozisyon almakla birlikte, ani teminat tamamlama \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 riski s\u0131k\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00f6netmeyi \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Tarihsel olarak, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da t\u0131rmanan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar Cboe Ham Petrol Volatilite Endeksi\u2019ni (OVX) h\u0131zla yukar\u0131 iter ve para d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n primlerini belirgin \u015fekilde \u015fi\u015firir. Bu ortamda do\u011frudan al\u0131m opsiyonu almak yerine bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019leri (bull call spread) i\u015flemeyi \u00f6neriyoruz; bu, z\u0131mni volatilitenin y\u00fcksek maliyetini k\u0131smen telafi etmeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, temmuzdaki %20\u2019lik rallinin yukar\u0131 potansiyelini opsiyon primi i\u00e7in a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 bedel \u00f6demeden yakalamay\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca WTI yak\u0131n vade takvim spread\u2019lerini yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor; zira ciddi arz tehdidi d\u00f6nemlerinde piyasa genellikle belirgin backwardation\u2019a kayar. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f jeopolitik krizlerde, ilk vade vadeli kontratlar\u0131n\u0131n ikinci vadeye g\u00f6re varil ba\u015f\u0131na 2,00 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde prim s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131yla i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc oldu. Bu h\u0131zl\u0131 hareket eden piyasada ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz gecelik fiyat bo\u015fluklar\u0131na dayanabilmek i\u00e7in pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerinin ola\u011fan\u0131n alt\u0131nda tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Son olarak, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel altyap\u0131y\u0131 tehdit edecek \u015fekilde geni\u015flemesi nedeniyle daha geni\u015f piyasa korelasyonlar\u0131n\u0131n bozulmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Ham petrol\u00fcn di\u011fer emtialara g\u00f6re daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fck enerji \u015foklar\u0131nda s\u0131k\u00e7a daralan alt\u0131n\/petrol oran\u0131 \u00fczerinden i\u015flem f\u0131rsatlar\u0131na bak\u0131labilir. K\u0131sa vadeli WTI al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131n\u0131rken, geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekli hisse senetlerinde savunmac\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131n korunmas\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki dalgal\u0131 haftalarda yol almay\u0131 kolayla\u015ft\u0131racakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n